Study On The Phased Early Warning Of The Listed Companies’ Financial Crisis

Economic globalization and the development of China’s market economy bringopportunities to every listing Corporation in China, at the same time, also bring manychallenges.Any company befalls financial crisis, may lead to "far-reaching consequences, Toestablish an effective financial crisis early-warning model, whether the company itself or thestakeholders have very important realistic meaning.For the current situation of the currentdomestic and international research, most of the researchers on the current research statusonly for a year, and this way, that the model is likely to lack of playing the tracking anddetection of the company’s financial situation, nor does it have the the timeliness use. Second,because the the EVA index has certain forward-looking and cash flow indicators has highlysensitive. If combine them to the research of financial crisis early warning stage, maysignificantly improve the predictive ability of the model.In this paper, we select44ST listed companies between2010and2012, which were in"abnormal financial position", and paired with non-ST-sample, among them,68for modelingsamples,20samples tested. In two time periods, in the primaries, early warning indicators andsignificant test concentrated on the basis of using the Logistic model were established basedon the model of traditional financial indicators①③and introduced EVA indicators andcash flow indicators model②,④, and then use the samples tested in the model predictiontest; Finally, Huaneng Power International Co., Ltd., for example, the police source itsexistence warning analysis. Then use the samples tested in the model prediction test; Finally,Huaneng Power International Co., Ltd., for example, the police source its existence warninganalysis.Through model establishment, testing, as well as empirical analysis, we draw thefollowing conclusions. Firstly, the EVA indicator and cash flow indicators are highly sensitiveand forward-looking, and have played a big role in the financial crisis early warning;Secondly, During the incubation period, cash flow indicators, long-term solvency indicatorshave greater significant,while in the attack, short-term solvency indicators, short-termsolvency indicators, long-term assets operating capacity indicators have big contributionrate;profitability indicators and the EVA index in the two phases have significant,Thirdly, Given the stage characteristics of the financial crisis, the listed companies need to build aphased early warning model and precautions according to their actual situation.