A Study On The Development Models Of Low-carbon Economy

Global warming has become a hot issue concerning human survival andsustainable development. According to the Fourth Assessment Report of UnitedNations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） published in2007, theglobal average surface temperature increased by0.74°C from1906to2005. Thereseach of IPCC shows that the threshold of average in crease in global temperature is2℃. Therefore, if the temperature continues to rise, our security, ecomomy and eventhe survival of mankind will face great challenges. The IPCC believes that the humanactivity is the main cause of global warming, the possibility of which is as high as90%.Human beings influence the global warming mainly by the use of fossil fuels,which can lead to the excess emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxideand methane.Low-carbon economy is a strategic choice in the face of the threat of globlewarming. In2003, The British government put forward the concept of low carboneconomy in its white paper on energy, which is named“Our Energy Future：to Createa Low Carbon Economy”.This is the first time that a government put forward theconcept of low-carbon in the form of official documents. Then, the concept oflow-carbon economy rapidly caused the attention of international society.How todevelop a low carbon economy is the key to the competitiveness of a country in thefuture. For China, a low carbon economy is both a challenge and opportunity. In July2010, the International Energy Agency reported that China has become the biggestcountry of energy consumption and green gases emission in the world.As the world′s second largest ecomony and a responsible country, China is facing with the severeinternational political and diplomatic pressure. At Copenhagen Climate ChangeSummit held in2009, the China′s prime minister Wen Jiabao promised that Chinawould cut the intersity of carbon dixide emissions per unit of GDP by40⁴5percentin2020from the2005level,which is a goal fairly difficult for China to reach. China has1.3billion population and its per capit GDP only exceeds3,000U.S.dollars.Therefore,it faces the arduous task of developing the economy andimproving people′s livelihood.At present, China is at the critical stage ofaccelerating industrialization and urbanization. Given the predominant role of coal inenerge mix,carbon reduction is really a severe challenge.A the same time,however, thelow carbon economy procides the opportunity for adjusting the development model.China is facing a golden opportunity to achieve a low-carbon society. With the rapidurbanization of China, it is expected that350million people will leave coury areasand settle in cities in the next20years. If the infrastructure, housing and industrialstructure are designed with low carbon concept, China will achive the target of carbonemissions reduction and win the rare opportunities.Since the concept of low-carbon economy was put forward in2003, thedomestic and foreign experts and scholars have done a lot of research. But in theaspect of theory, most researches focus on a low carbon economy connotation andcountermeasures study in macro level, or focus on affecting factors of carbonemissions and the relationship between the influence factors in micro level research.The research on regional development mode of a low-carbon economy in mediumscale area is relatively few. From the practical view of low-carbon, domestic andforeign practices often focus on national strategic policy research in the macroscopiclevel or low carbon community, low carbon cities and other aspects of the research,butthe reseach on provincial low-carbon economy is rare. Assessment for a national lowcarbon development not only requires the research in the national level, but alsoneed to grasp the regional changing pattern. In fact, the local government is theimportant administrator and executor in CO₂emissions reduction and low carboneconomy development. Therefore, the study on a province has an importantsignificance and the relevant policies will become more clearly targeted and havemore maneuverability. This is why we choose a typical area to reseach. In August,2010, The National Development and Reform Commission started pilot projects oflow-carbon provinces and low-carbon cities. This means that the government beginsto pay more attention to the enthusiasm, initiatives and creativity of the areas in China and to explore the regional low-carbon economy development model with Chinesecharacteristics. Therefore, the study of the choise of a development model of regionallow-carbon economy becomes very necessary.Shandong Province is one of the typical provinces of which economy relies onhigh energy consumption and heavy emissions. Currently it is in the process of rapidindustrialization and urbanization, facing the dual pressures of reducing greenhousegas emissions and developing its economy. Because the basic conditions of ShandongProvince are similar to many other provinces in China, a low carbon economydevelopment of Shandong province is a typical model. In addition, the reseach on thelow-carbon economy development mode in seventeen cities of Shandong Provincehas full consideration of the regional differences, so it can provide reference for thelow carbon development of the similar regions.The dissertation takes low-carbon economic development as the object of reseach,and use the mode analysis, comparative analysis, empirical analysis and othermethods to achieve the reseach objective. The dissertation focuses on the connotationof low-carbon model of economic development.The concept and characteristics oflow-carbon models will be studied and types of theoretical discussion at home andabroad will be discussed in order to offer reference for China.On the basis of adetailed analysis of the condition of low-carbon economy in Shandong Province, thelow-cabon level of low-carbon economy in Shandong Province and its position inChina will be clarified.Then the dissertation puts forward the low-carbon developmentmodel in the province.In the following chapters17cities in Shandong Province aredivided into three types according to different level of low-carbon economy and at lastcorresponding development models are designed according to different characteristicsof different types.The dissertation propells the reseach content step by step further by the gradeframework. In chapter one,the dissertation analyzes the significance and feasibility ofthe research content and methods, reviews the current research situation at home andabroad, and puts forward the main research contents and methods.In chapter two,thedissertation extracts the theory groundwork for low-carbon economy.In chapter three,the dissertation focuses on the theoretical reseach on regional low-carboneconomy,and summarizes the models of regional low-carbon economy in sometypical developed countries and developing countries as well.In chapter four,thedissertation evaluates and analyzes the basic status of Shandong province in terms ofdevelopment of low-carbon economy.In chapter five,the dissertation makes acomprehensive evaluation on the regional development level of low-carbon economyand a cluster analysis of the seventeen cities in Shandong province.In chapter six,thedissertation chooses the development models of low carbon economy in Shandongprovince and seventeen cities.In chapter seven,the dissertation gives the mainconclusions and future outlook for readers. The main contents and conclusions of thisdissertation are as follows:First, present reseach situation, contents and methods are studied. Most currentresearches on low-carbon economy at home and abroad focus on macro-scale andmicro scale, but the research at medium scale area is less. The researches in domesticand foreign coutries often focus on national policy or microscopic variables such ascarbon emissions.Therefore; a low-carbon economy development mode study in themedium scale area has certain theoretical and practical value.Second, the research of low-carbon economy is based on the theory ofenvironmental economics, energy economics, the sustainable development theory andgeography, and many theories of other subjects, especially the externality theory, thetheory of public goods, coupling decoupling theory, the circulation economic theoryare especially essential during the research of low-carbon economy.Third, low-carbon economy is a social economic development model which ischaracterized by low energy consumption, low pollution and low emission. In order tocut greenhouse gas emissions, the dissertation should not only establish a low-carbonproduction system, consumption model, low carbon technical system but also set uppolicy, law, management system for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Low-carboneconomy is characteried by relativity, economy and has different stages. Differentcountries select different development models of low-carbon economy. According todifferent emphases implemented in typical countries, the dissertation obtains different low-carbon development models.Fourth, Shandong province is a province with large population and largeeconomy which is in the rapid process of industrialization and urbanization.Heavyindustry is the most important industry sector. The total energy consumption is verylarge and most energe consumption is coal.At the same time, energy dependencekeeps increasing and total carbon emissions are increasing faster than before.Theseare the characteristics under a low-carbon economy in Shandong province. This partis the foundation of the choice of regional low carbon economy development mode.Fifth, on the basis of system theory, the dissertation chooses a low-carboneconomy system, a low-carbon social system and a low-carbon resources environmentsystem as a criterion layer, and establishes the regional comprehensive evaluationindex system by choosing some relevant indicators of low-carbon. Through empiricalanalysis of Shandong Province, it reaches the conclusion that the low carbon level inShandong province increases from2005to2010. Then the dissertation establishes theclustering analysis model of regional low-carbon economy.With this model, it divides17cities in Shandong province into three types according the different low-carbondevelopment level.Sixth, the dissertation selects low-carbon economy development modle forShandong province. This chaper constitutes two parts. At first, it selects the model oflow-carbon economy of Shandong province as a whole according to its low-carbonlevel in China. The model of the whole province should be dominated by thegovernment for energy conservation and emission reduction. Secondly, thedissertation selects different low-carbon development path for different types ofregions. In this part,17cities in Shandong Province are classified into different typesbased on their local low-carbon debelopment conditions. The regions with higelow-carbon economy level, such as Qingdao city, Yantai city and Dongying city, willchoose the model of new energy base construction of wind power and nuclear energyand emerging low-carbon industry development. The regions with Intermediate levelof low-carbon economy, such as Jinan city and Dezhou city will choose the model of solar energy base construction and the traditional industry upgrades.The rest of citieswhich are relatively high carbon cities,such as Zibo city and Laiwu city,will choosethe model of biomass energy construction and transformation from high carbonindustry to low carbon industry.Seventh, a sound policy should be made to support low carbon development. Alow carbon economy, as a new concept, needs the relevant policy support from eachlevel of society. But the key is to establish a government-leading-policy mechanismto improve the market regulation mechanism and to timely adjust examination ststem.