| In the seven decades after Schumpeter proposed the economics concept of innovation in1912, only the academic circles gained some understanding of himself and the term of innovation. Although at the beginning of the Reform and Opening Up, Comrade Deng Xiaoping proposed the idea of "Science and technology are primary productive forces", for a long time China has been known for taking investment, consumption, and foreign trade as the three carriages to boost economic growth. Not until the global financial crisis had its effect on China’s economy in2008did the government departments realize that only taking the scientific and technological innovation as the endogenous power for economic development was the road leading to the sustainable development. Against such a background, the National Conference on Science and Technology Innovation held in2012proposed the target of building China into an innovation-oriented country by2020. However, in reality, the government departments and the business community have not adequately understood the important role of scientific and technological innovation yet, nor have they made clear the in-depth logical relationship between the scientific and technological innovation and enterprise development, export trade, and economic development. There are still two contradictory phenomena that the administrative departments at all levels put "Being driven by innovation and developing through transformation" on their lips while how to innovate and transform is hardly studied deeply, and the importance of scientific and technological innovation is widely acknowledged while the government and enterprises are reluctant to increase investment in scientific and technological innovation.Since the1980s, paying close attention to the scientific and technological innovation and economic growth, the European and American scholars have established relatively complete modern growth theory. However, the existing theoretical research focuses on the discussion on the effectiveness of government funding the scientific and technological innovation in solving the problem of the failure of R&D market with little involvement in the mechanism of the direct effect of the public funds for scientific and technological innovation on the economic growth as well as little study in the mechanism of the effect of the public spending on scientific and technological innovation on the foreign trade growth. The Chinese scholars’theoretical study on scientific and technological innovation and economic growth is basically the improvement for foreign theoretical studies and the verification of the theories through the foreign experience in empirical studies, which is inadequately systematic in general and is maybe one of the reasons for the insufficient importance attached to the scientific and technological innovation as well as the incomplete understanding and the sluggish progress in China.At present, China is in an important period of strategic opportunities, and building an innovation-oriented country has become one of the national strategies. Therefore, it is of urgent and practical significance to reveal the mechanism of internal connection between public investment in scientific and technological innovation and the export trade and economic growth from a theoretical perspective, analyze the actual effect of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation on promoting the output growth, and propose the policy suggestions for optimizing the allocation and management of the public funds for scientific and technological innovation in China.Therefore, taking the mechanism of the internal connection between the public investment in scientific and technological innovation and the export trade and economic growth as the topic of study, this paper will inherit the main idea of the new Schumpeterian endogenous growth model established by Aghion&Howitt, set up the endogenous growth model including the public investment in scientific and technological innovation, and describe the mechanism of action of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation on the growth of the export trade and economy. Making the quantitative analysis according to the data of input and output of China and Shanghai, this paper will study the specific effects of the different targets, sources and ways of funding enterprises of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation on the output growth, and analyze the existing problems, in a bid to provide reference on adjusting the policies in investment in scientific and technological innovation.This paper firstly sets up a conceptual model for the mechanism of action of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation on the growth of the export trade and economy, so as to reveal the whole-process mechanism of action that by reducing the enterprises’ costs in R&D, the public funds for scientific and technological innovation stimulate the enterprises to step up the investment in R&D, and the R&D achievements function through "creative destruction", and expand level by level through the scale effect, the coupling effect, and the network effect of the scientific and technological innovation as well as industrialization, thus finally demonstrating the multiplier effect promoting the export trade and economic growth.Then on the basis of the conceptual model, the mathematical models for endogenous growth of public investment in scientific and technological innovation are established. The problem settling and the simulation analysis through the models show that the accumulation of human capital and the public R&D activities of the colleges and the public R&D departments indirectly the economic growth by affecting the social innovation; the different ways and sources of expending of the public funds for scientific and technological innovation have positive effects on improving the economic growth rate but there exist differences in the positive effects; the application of the public funds for scientific and technological innovation to the applied research will cause the crowding-out effect on the enterprises’investment in the scientific and technological innovation; both stepping up the total public funds in scientific and technological innovation and increasing the proportion of the funds in the fiscal expenditure are conducive to boosting the economic growth, but with the occupation of the funds for capital accumulation of the society, the positive effect will be offset constantly with the shrinking of the social capital accumulation.After the deduction and analysis by mathematical models, this paper tests the mathematical model through the cointegration theory, using the VAR model and the impulse response function in the analysis of a series of the input-output multipliers and the impacts on trends of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation and studying the actual impacts of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation on the export trade and economic growth. The quantitative analysis is conducted in three parts, namely, the first part of the quantitative analysis of the impacts on the output growth by using the data of the different targets of the state public investment in scientific and technological innovation, the second part of the quantitative analysis of the impacts on the output growth by using the data of the sources of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation at different fiscal levels, and the third part of the quantitative analysis of the impacts on the regional output growth by citing Shanghai as an example and using the data of the different ways of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation.The first part of the quantitative analysis proves that both the total public investment in scientific and technological innovation in China and the different investment targets play the role in stimulating and guiding the entire social investment in scientific and technological innovation, and have a significant multiplier effect on the output of the scientific and technological innovation especially the export trade and economic growth, which is demonstrated by the multiplier amplification from the local to the whole; the significant differences among the specific multipliers show the different effects on the export trade and economic growth; the public funds for scientific and technological innovation subsidizing the applied research of the public R&D departments shows the biggest multiplier effect followed by the effect of subsidizing the institutions of higher learning.The second part of the quantitative analysis proves that the fiscal sources at different levels of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation play the role in stimulating and guiding the entire social investment in scientific and technological innovation, and have the significant multiplier effect on the output of the scientific and technological innovation especially the export trade and economic growth but with large differences among specific multipliers which indicate the different influential effects; the multiplier effect and the impact on the long-term trends of the local financial appropriation for science and technology on the output growth are less than those of the central financial appropriation for science and technology.The third part of the quantitative analysis proves that the different ways of Shanghai’s public investment in scientific and technological innovation play the role in stimulating and guiding the entire social investment in scientific and technological innovation, and have the significant multiplier effect on the output of the scientific and technological innovation especially the export trade and economic growth but with large differences among specific multipliers which indicate the different influential effects; both the multiplier effects of the subsidies for R&D fees calculated by weighted deduction and the tax exemption for hi-tech enterprises are obviously greater than that of the financial appropriation for science and technology in Shanghai; the impact of the tax exemption for hi-tech enterprises is a greater than that of the subsidies for R&D fees calculated by weighted deduction; the effect multipliers of the three ways are characterized by the level-by-level amplification from the local to the whole.The part of the international comparative research studies the process and experience of the United States, Japan, and South Korea promoting the economic growth through the public investment in scientific and technological innovation, and analyzes the new trends of some developed countries promoting the economic growth through the public investment in scientific and technological innovation. The study finds the significant stage characteristics of the scientific and technological innovation in developed countries and that China is now at the take-off stage, which should be broken through as soon as possible; with highly intensive investment in science and technology found in developed countries, it is necessary for China to constantly step up the public investment in scientific and technological innovation; as the structure of the investment in scientific and technological innovation in the developed countries universally went through the process of transformation from the domination of the government’s input to that of the enterprises’ investment, the corresponding transformation should be sped up in China; at the present stage, the focus of the investment in scientific and technological innovation in developed countries is on the basic research and higher education institutions and the funding for the basic research and higher education institutions should be further stepped up in China.Finally, in accordance with the18study conclusions drawn from the research of the conceptual models, the simulation of the mathematical models, the quantitative analysis and the international comparative research as well as the relevant reflections, this paper puts forward the general policy suggestions, that is, optimizing the design of the system to guarantee the improvement of the scientific and technological innovation and the performance, expanding the investment channels to effectively step up the public investment in the scientific and technological innovation by which means to guide and improve the investment in the scientific and technological innovation in the whole society, and strengthening the management of the funds for the public investment in the scientific and technological innovation so as to enhance the performance of the public funds for scientific and technological innovation in promoting the export trade and economic growth.There are four main innovations in this paper. First, this paper defines in detail the concepts of the scientific and technological innovation, the investment in scientific and technology innovation and the public investment in scientific and technological innovation, which are associated with export trade and economic growth. Second, this paper sets up the conceptual model of the mechanism of action of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation promoting the export trade and economic growth. Third, this paper sets up the endogenous growth model of the four R&D departments including the multivariate of the public investment in innovation. Fourth, using such testing mathematical models as the cointegration theory and the impulse response analysis, this paper measures respectively the impacts of different targets, sources and ways of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation on the output growth, and studies the effects and analyzes the orientations for improvement by comprehensively comparing the impact multipliers. This paper has conducted relatively complete quantitative analysis of the impact of the public investment in scientific and technological innovation on export trade and economic growth in China at the present stage, in which the measuring of the tax exemption for hi-tech enterprises and the subsidies for R&D fees calculated by weighted deduction as the different ways of public investment in scientific and technological innovation by citing Shanghai as an example is the first of its kind. |
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