| Food is an indispensable necessities of modern life, according to statistics, the proportion of processed foods accounts for90%of food consumption in developed countries, an average of50%or more in developing countries, while only30%in China, so the food industry in China will be huge space for development. The food industry is one of the most important industries in China, since1996, and its output value has been the maximum among all industrial secors. Internationally, the United States, Japan, France and other countries also have a very competitive food industry, especially in French food industry is the largest industrial sector. In the past30years, China’s food industry has made great achievements, and its value in constant prices of1978increases from8.5billion in1980to860.2billion RMB in2009, the average annual growth rate of12.44%, but its volatility. Fluctuations of the food industry are affected by a lot of factors, such as macroeconomic factors, supply factors, demand factors, policies and institutional factors, etc., among of which, the shock of supply and demand factors is the basic reasons for fluctuations of the food industry. The backward linkage industries is one of the inputs in the food industry Production, the forward linkage industries are high demand for food, therefore, the related industries have become important influence on fluctuations of the food industry. Based on the datas of Input-output Tables in2007in China, the backward linkage coefficient of the food industry maintains a high level of70%,and the forward linkage coefficient has been ascending from32%in1987to52%in2007. From theoretical analysis, it shows that fluctuations of the food industry is closely associated with related industries, then, what will be the empirical results?Through theory of economic fluctuations and industrial correlation, the paper appies HP filtering method for Investigating the fluctuations characteristics and rules of the food industry.explores the "exogenous shocks and internal transmission mecha-nism", focuses on the impact of supply factors and demand factors on fluctuations of the food industry, one of the results is that related industries is the reason for fluctuations of the food industry. On this basis, the paper works out input-output table of the food industry, surveys the features of industrial correlation of different periods and sub-food industry, examines the influences between the food industry and mainly related industries. Finally, from the meso perspective of the food industry, suggestions are proposed for reducing economic fluctuations and coordina-ting the development between the food industry and the other industries, and from the business perspective, countermeasures are put forward to challenge for the cycle of the food industry.The study is divided into seven parts, main contents and preliminary conclusions are as follows:Section1describes the volatility of the food industry through several concerned indicators, uses the HP filtering method for decomposing time series of the growth rate of food industry into Trend component and fluctuation component, examines the regularity of fluctuations of the food industry and the relationship between food industry volatility and GDP volatility. The results show that there are8business cycles from1980to2009and not co-movement between the food industry and the GDP growth.Section2explores the formation mechanism of fluctuations of the food industry and its factors. Reference to fluctuations transmission mechanism in aggregate economic cycle, this part rebuilds "exogenous shocks and internal transmission mechanism" of the food industry, examines the impact of exogenous factors on the food industry fluctuations. The results is that domestic consumption and fixed asset investment have an important influence on fluctuations of the food industry, and related industries are important factors on fluctuation of the food industry.Section3is the analysis on industrial correlation of the food industry. To analyze more comprehensively, so this part is through input-output tabale for general equilibrium analysis, based on requirements of establishing input-output tables, integrated the food sectors in1987,1992,1997,2002and2007input-output tables with the same criteria, investigates further the industrial correlation characteristics of sub-industry and food industry. The results indicate that intermediate input of the backward linkage industry has remained70%of the output of the food industry, intermediate use of the forward linkage industry has grown from35%in1987to52%in2007, except for the sugar industry, the other sub-food industries also have similar characteristics. On further analysis, it shows that mainly related industries of it are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries industry, sub-food industry, ac-commodation and catering industry, wholesale and retail industry, culture, sports and entertainment industry as well as leather and feather products industry.etc.Section4is the mutual impacts between related industries and the food industry.the part takes use of time series VAR model (vector autoregression, VAR) to do imp-ulse response and variance decomposition analysis in order to examine the mutual impacts between mainly related industries and food industry and among sub-food industries. The conclusion is that the rapid growth of the food processing industry promotes the food manufacturing and beverage manufacturing industry, the increas-ement of beverage manufacturing industry boosts the food processing and the food manufacturing industry, but the food manufacturing industry restrains the growth of food processing and beverage manufacturing industry. The growth of the food indust-ry stimulates accommodation and catering industry, no positive effect on fur feather and leather products industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and wholesale and retail industry, but the latter(mainly related industries) promotes the growth of the former in varying degrees, especially accommodation and catering industry. |
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