Development Of The Energy Supply And Demand Pattern Of China Under The Constraints Of Resources And Environment

Energy is one of the key supportive safeguard factors of social advance and economic development. The importance of the scientific development of the energy system has been recognized world-widely. Theoretical research on the energy supply and demand development has been deepening continuously. In recent years, the national and regional economic development level is more and more impeded by the security system of energy supply. However, with the considerable exploitation of energy resources and the continuous growth of total energy consumption, the problems of environment pollution brought by energy expenditure have been prominent, and the restraints on the energy system of resources and environment have been even stronger. The issue of resources and environment has been the core problem which confines social development.As a country with the largest population, meanwhile the major energy production and consumption country in the world, China is facing the unprecedented energy supply and demand issues in the future:low per capita energy resources occupancy; undesirable primary energy reserves and its structure; serious pollution problems of the use of energy. These issues will greatly affect the long-term stable development of the energy supply and demand system of our country. However, there are neither systematical references to fully analyzing the development of the energy supply and demand system, nor researches on the constraint effects of resources and environment on the development of energy. The concept of "energy supply and demand pattern" of China is proposed in this paper, and the deeper analysis of its evolution and excavation of relevant management methods are then conducted combined with its connotation, which provides theoretical reference and practical guidance for the comprehensive upgrade of the scientific management level of energy supply and demand of China.The principle work of the dissertation includes:(1) The concept of "energy supply and demand pattern" of China is proposed, and the connotation of which is explained by four aspects of "gross, structure, layout and flow". The international and domestic researches on the energy supply and demand pattern are summarized, the development features of the energy supply and demand pattern are analyzed, which provides sound reference and basis for the following-up studies.(2) The relevant theories of analyzing the energy supply and demand pattern are introduced. The connotation of energy and the energy system is defined, the resources constraint theories and environment constraint theories of energy are analyzed, the principles and content systems of energy economics,3E systems, sustainable development theory are further summarized, which provides sound theoretical basis for the management of energy supply and demand pattern under the constraints of resources and environment.(3) The evolution process of the energy supply and demand pattern of China is summarized all-around. In the dimension of temporal evolution, the situation of energy production, consumption and the co-ordination of energy supply and demand are summarized; while in the dimension of spatial evolution, the energy spatial difference and transportation system of China are analyzed. A large amount of data is provided here to help summarize the process and current situation, and excavate the features and problems of the energy supply and demand development of China.(4) The influencing factors of the development of energy supply and demand are analyzed. The internal influencing factors are proposed from three respects, which are energy resources and the capacity of supply, energy consumption and energy transportation; the external influencing factors are proposed from four respects, which are economic, social, policy and international factors. The influencing mechanisms and effects of each factor are deeply excavated, which provides important reference valued for seizing the development of energy supply and demand pattern in the future. The co-integration analysis of the main influencing factors is conducted, the VAR model of energy demand is built, the stability and co-integration of the model is verified, and the causality of the influencing factors and energy demand is also analyzed.(5) The energy demand forecasting method is studied under the constraints of resources and environment. The traditional energy demand forecasting methods are introduced, and the analysis of the energy demand forecasting is taken by the combination forecasting model. An energy demand forecasting thought based on LMDI model joint with scenario prediction is proposed, which finely consider both constraint effects of resources and environment. The more reasonable energy demand forecasting is put forward, and the specific case study is conducted, which provides means for improve the forecasting accuracy of energy demand under the constraints of resources and environment.(6) The comprehensive evaluation system of the development of energy supply and demand pattern of China is studied. Considering the constraints of resources and environment, some index contents are introduced, such as convergence coefficient of energy supply and demand, energy matrix. A comprehensive evaluation system of the development of energy supply and demand pattern is established. A classified optimization mix evaluation model is proposed, and the case study is conducted accordingly, which provides practical basis for reasonably analyzing the dynamic development level of energy supply and demand pattern of China.(7) The optimization of energy supply and demand pattern is studied combined with the analysis of energy structure forecasting. The importance of the development of the optimization of energy structure onto promoting the scientific management of energy supply and demand pattern is summarized. The study of energy structure forecasting is with the Markov model. The development goal of energy structure is optimized by the thought based on revised transfer probability matrix. And the implementation path to deeply adjusting energy structure and pushing the optimized development of energy supply and demand pattern is put forward.(8) The optimization of energy supply and demand pattern is studied combined with the comprehensive comparison between coal transportation and power transmission. The meaning of optimizing the coal transportation system to the energy supply and demand pattern is analyzed; the economy of coal transportation and power transmission is analyzed with the method of price difference; the energy utilization efficiency is of coal transportation and power transmission is compared by linear programming technique; the environmental impact of coal transportation and power transmission is analyzed based on the thought of environmental carrying capacity, and the development strategy of optimization the energy supply and demand pattern is proposed based on the thought of developing coal transportation and power transmission simultaneously.(9) The issues of the development of energy pattern are summarized combined with the analytical basis of the energy supply and demand pattern of China. The applicable suggestions are proposed. The basic structure of the energy supply and demand pattern analysis software is introduced, as well as its application values.The research achievements of this paper will provide sound foundations for analyzing the internal structure and development trend of energy supply and demand pattern of China, and provide theoretical reference for optimizing the management level of energy supply and demand pattern, which has both theoretical values and practical meanings.