Research On Assessment Methodology Of Production Safety Level For Middle&Small Scale Coal Mines And Applications

Taken the relevant theories and methods from safety science and systems science as the foundation and on the middle&small scale coal mines, the production region safety degree, production safety evaluating indexes system, comprehensive evaluation methods, input&output efficiency and input decision-making models are systematically researched. The main contents are as follows:(1) By analysing region and system safety degree of the small&middle scale coal mines, the danger factors which cause the changes of the coal mine safety are clarified, the region safety degree is defined and the relationship between safety degree and safety level is explicited. Meanwhile safety degree’s algorithm for single region and combined region in production are proposed, and the empirical analysis is conducted.(2) For building production safety level evaluating indexes system of middle&small scale coal mine,and on the basis of studying the theories and methods of coal mines’ production safety evaluation and analysing the defects of present evaluating indexes system, a three-storys’ production safety level evaluating indexes system for middle&small scale coal mines is built, which contains22sub-indexes, all of which are based on respective4aspects, namely, production region safety degree, staff’s safety, safety management, safety accidents. Moreover, all evaluating indexes are illuminated by the specific definition.(3) For evaluating production safety level of middle&small scale coal mines,and on the basis of calculating the weight of production safety evaluation indexes of each index by applying integrate subjective with objective method, a comprehensive evaluation of middle&small scale coal mines with3evaluation methods, namely, grey analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and set pair theory is conducted. Additionally, the advantages and disadvantages of three evaluation methods are analysed and compared.(4) From the perspective of input&output, the relative effectiveness of middle&small scale coal mines production safety level was studied by applying the data envelopment analysis(DEA) model. Based on the safety production evaluating index system of middle&small scale coals mine built in chapter3, an empirical research on the effectiveness of15coal mines was conducted by applying CCR model.(5) Common production safety input decision methods of mine coals are researched, which mainly include qualitative decisions, such as Delphi method, brainstorming methods, education and communication method, and quantitative methods, such as decision tree method, discounted cash flow method and real option method. Besides, application of these methods in coal mine production safety is indicated. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are analysed and compared. In additions, the paper application status of a variety of artificial intelligence technology in coal mine production safety decision is clarified.(6) A safety input decision-making model of coal mine production is built, which is based on BP neural network. Input data of decision-making model include3indexes, namely, regional safety degree, accident incidence and proportion of annual economic loss. Besides, the model usess10indexes concerning each input of production safety as output indexes. By using the neural network toolbox based on MATLAB, the model applies the10decision making units that are effective to DEA to train the network, and the input in production safety of5ineffective coal mines is measured and calculated by applying the well-trained neural network. By comparing the original data with calculated data, a few input indexes which should be adjusted are as follows:firstly, reducing the ratio of "3violation" of staffs and mobility of miners; secondly, improving the organization of production safety and increasing safety projects and technology input; thirdly, enhancing the percentage of licensed miners and safety education input and so on. Through the above research, the evaluating indexes system of middle&small scale coal mine production safety level is built, and safety level is evaluated. Besides, the input relative efficiency of middle&small scale coal mine production safety is investigated by applying DEA model. Morever, an empirical analysis on the issue of decision-making of production safety is conducted. Therefore, a set of coherent production safety level evaluating research system of middle&small scale coal mine is formed.