| Strongly influenced by the monsoon climate and geographical conditions, China is oneof the countries of most serious natural disasters in the world. In all kinds of natural disasters,the impact of flood disaster is the most serious. It has a wide range of impact, strong sudden,long history, frequent occurrence, great damage, prominent seasonal and other significantfeatures. It has become one of the important factors restricting China’s economic and socialdevelopment. In this paper, the starting point is that rationalizing the complex relationshipbetween the flood disaster and the socio-economic system, and evaluating objectively theeconomic impact and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity for flood disaster. Theeconomic impact of flood disaster can be divided into the direct economic impact and theindirect economic impacts. Among them, the direct economic impact mainly refers to directdamage to buildings, infrastructure, transportation, electricity, etc. And the indirect economicimpacts mainly refers to ripple effect of the economic system caused by direct damage,including the impact on consumption, investment, output, employment, inflation, economicgrowth, etc.This paper aims to address four key proposition associated with flood disaster:(1) Whatis the direct impact of flood disaster? What is the transmission path from the direct impact tothe indirect effects?(2) The direct impact of flood disaster on the economy and society isinstantaneous, but the indirect impact is dynamic. So how does it fluctuate dynamically?What is the trend of this dynamic fluctuations?(3) What is the economic impact of disasterprevention and mitigation measures for flood disaster?(4) How does the disaster preventionand mitigation capacity for flood disaster in various regions of China (provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions)? What are the influencing factors? What are theregional differences? What kind of measures should be taken to enhance this capacity?This paper’s research thought is “posing problems-analyzing problems-solvingproblems”. Firstly, it briefly discusses the research background and significance,systematically reviews the related areas of research at home and abroad, and commentscurrent research status. Secondly, it makes descriptive statistical analysis on the directimpact of flood disaster, laying a solid foundation for the follow-up research. Thirdly, itrationalizes the mechanism and pathway of the indirect economic impact, and builds the“Flood Disaster Indirect Economic Impacts Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium”(FDIEI-DCGE) based on general equilibrium theory. It designs two different simulation analysis of the scene, which are disaster prevention and mitigation, and the original state.Combined with the actual situation of the flood disaster of2010, it analyzes the trend in theshort-term and long-term impact on the economic system, and estimates the economic effectsof the disaster prevention and mitigation measures. Fourthly, following the evaluation indexsystem design principles, it designs more targeted evaluation index system of disasterprevention and mitigation capability of flood disaster from four aspects, which areprevention and emergency preparedness, monitoring and early warning, emergency responseand rescue, disaster recovery and reconstruction. It improves the traditional “UnascertainedMeasure Model” by using the quintile grading method and improved CRITIC method. Then,it builds the“The Improved Unascertained Measure Model in Disaster Prevention andMitigation Capability of Flood Disaster”. It takes the country’s31provinces (municipalitiesand autonomous regions) as the research object, and uses the built model to evaluatecomprehensively the regional disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. For theevaluation results, it carries out analysis from influencing factors, comprehensive evaluation,regional differences, etc. Finally, it puts forward the feasibility of policy recommendationsfor reducing losses and improving the disaster prevention and mitigation of flood disaster.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following four areas:(1) This paper analyzes characteristics and the impact path of flood disaster, and buildsthe “Flood Disaster Indirect Economic Impacts Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium”(FDIEI-DCGE) based on “Monash-China Hunan University General Equilibrium”(MCHUGE). This model designs innovatively the flood disaster expansion module,including the agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery loss conduction sub-module, themining industry loss conduction sub-module, the transportation industry loss conductionsub-module, the electricity industry loss conduction sub-module, the communicationindustry loss conduction sub-module, and the water conservancy loss conductionsub-module. Based on the flood disaster expansion module, FDIEI-DCGE is able to moreeffectively assess the indirect economic impact of flood disaster.(2) This paper designs the data system, closure methods and simulation analysis of thescene of FDIEI-DCGE. The data system of FDIEI-DCGE is based on the2002ChinaInput-output Table as the core development, and the basic database is adjusted from2002to2010by dynamic update mechanism. The data system of FDIEI-DCGE includes input andoutput data, economic parameter data, dynamically updated data, and prepared data tomodeling assessments for flood disaster. FDIEI-DCGE is also designs the three differentclosure methods, which are history closure, predict closure and flood disaster closure. Inaddition, FDIEI-DCGE designs two different simulation analysis of the scene, which are disaster prevention and mitigation, and the original state. All of the above play an importantrole for estimating effectively the indirect economic impact of flood disaster and theeconomic effects of disaster prevention and mitigation measures.(3) This paper builds the evaluation index system of disaster prevention and mitigationcapability of flood disaster. The main feature of this evaluation index system is that level ismore distinct, evaluation objectives is more refined. Basic indicators of this evaluation indexsystem are capable to get data directly in the existing statistical system, and all the absoluteindicators have been transformed into relative indicators. So this evaluation index systemhave strong operational and comparability, and the results of the evaluation have greatercredibility and recognized degrees. Government departments and evaluation staff canquickly apply the evaluation index system to operation and implementation.(4) This paper builds the“The Improved Unascertained Measure Model in DisasterPrevention and Mitigation Capability of Flood Disaster”. This model uses the quintilegrading method to overcome the traditional model’s limitation, which is only can evaluate“fuzzy mathematical problem for grades”. Meanwhile, it also improves model accuracy byusing the improved CRITIC method, which is improved by the coefficient of variation and∑(1-|r|).Duringtheanalysisprocess,thispaperisalsousesCorrelationCoefficient,TheilIndex, Cluster Analysis and other methods to analyze the actual situation, influence factors,and regional differences of disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of flood disaster ofChina. |
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