| Water resources are the basis resources for the economic and social development.It with resources of petroleum and food is called three strategic resources. With therapid development of China’s economy and society, the demand of water is increasingrapidly; the contradiction between supply and demand of water has become one of themost prominent issues in China’s economic growth and environmental protection. Thesame time, water is important factors that affect the ecological balance. The problems ofexcessive use of water resources and soil and water loss become more prominent. Theseproblems in the northwest region is even more prominent, and the water resourcessituation in the northwest region has its own characteristics, such as the quantity ofwater is congenitally deficient, a higher rate of water resources development, the lowerefficiency of water use, excessive development led to the deterioration of waterenvironment, water pollution caused reduced supply, and so on. Face the developmentstatus and opportunities of northwest region; the development pressure is still huge.Therefore, how to deal with the relationship between environmental, economic andsocial sustainable development, and to promote the efficient use of water, the protectionof environment, and speed up the construction of ecological civilization became socialfocus and research hotspots. This paper is based on the above objective, taking ShanxiProvince as an example, research on the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) innorthwestern region. Mainly includes:（1）Improve the water circulation mechanism. Breakthrough the amount of waterresources bearing limited, the green water resources and water of environmentalrequirement were into the whole process of water circulation system, realizes thedevelopment of the natural-ecological system. Based on virtual water theory, water resource has into the trade cycle of social and economic system. It realize thedevelopment of social-economy system.(2) Build the static evaluation model of WRCC. Papers by theecological-economic and water resources circulation mechanism as the foundation, onthe basis of the virtual water theory and water footprint, establish a present situation ofWRCC evaluation model; including its indicators: deficit of the WRCC, economycarrying capacity, social carrying capacity and ecological carrying capacity. By theecological-economic and water resources circulation mechanism as the foundation, onthe background of the rapid industrialization and urbanization, to search and sorting theimpact factors of ecological-environmental system, society, population and economicdevelopment system, establish a relative situation of WRCC evaluation model. Basedon analysis water resources system, ecological-environmental system, society,population and economic development system, and build a multi-objectiveprogramming model of the WRCC exploration to a certain level of social and technicalconditions, the boundary of the WRCC.(3) The construction of WRCC of dynamic analysis framework. Thesis build theSD model of WRCC dynamic change, and the river ecological water requirement andWRCC static evaluation index into the SD model. In SD model building, combiningwith the characteristics of water resource utilization, wastewater reuse in economicsystems, economic structure adjustment and the influence of inside and outside watercirculation transactions, to establish economic feedback loops in the system, make thesystem more realistic and complete. In dynamic analysis of the WRCC, Paper builds thesimulation scheme of four kinds of different development models. It was TraditionalDevelopment Scheme (TDS); High Economical Scheme (HES); Resource-EnvironmentProtected Scheme (REPS); Economical-Environment Coordinate Scheme (EECS).（4）WRCC status inspection and dynamic analysis of empirical research. Thepaper takes Shanxi Province as an example, through the analysis of the results:①The results of the carrying capacity showed that, on the economic, social andecological development is still within the range of support; Shanxi province also has alarger space for development and growth. However, due to the current level oftechnology and development conditions, the limit of development concept, the larger development and utilization of blue water resources, has caused the water resource ofthe local bearing capacity is insufficient, also diverted the water ecological environment,become the main factors causing the deterioration of ecological environment water.Future expansion of green water resources utilization, for effective utilization of waterresources, including the utilization of reclaimed water, is one of the effective ways toimprove the WRCC.②The status quo capacity calculation results show that nearly10years, theaverage Shanxi Province WRCC in between class II and III level, the use of waterresources, there is potential to be tapped. However, the relative carrying capacity ofwater resources presents a significant downward trend. Therefore, to improve water useefficiency, change the mode of economic growth, and maintain the sustainabledevelopment has become an urgent thing.③The results of ultimate carrying capacity show that, WRCC affected by naturalenvironment greatly. At the same time, the technology of water, industrial structure andstructural adjustment will affect the utilization of water resource utilization efficiency;will optimize water resources to some extent, so as to improve the bearing capacity ofwater resources. The dynamic development of the bearing capacity of water resourcesand using optimization points out a feasible direction.④Through the analysis of SD system, TDS and HES mode needs more waterresources, but because of the coarse development, the economic development is notsustainable. The REPS and EECS mode reduces the demand for water, the developmentspeed and technical progress to match, so the WRCC of relative level has improved,with the further development of utilization level, technical level, the WRCC hasimproved potential. |
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