Capabilities-based Weapon System-of-systems Assessment Methods And Application Research

Rapid development in science and technology fields promotes the informatizationlevel of weapons and equipments, whose connections becoming closer, and the combatmode of forces is transforming from traditional ‘platform-centric warfare’ to‘information system-based system-of-systems warfare’ as result. To adapt thistremendous transformation, researches on weapon system-of-systems (WSoS)modeling、assessment、optimization and its related theories, methodologies are of greattheoretical meaning and practical value.Taking capability as core concept, thisdissertation studies capabilities-based WSoS assessment systematically and thoroughly,including WSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis, WSoS capabilityrequirement satisfactory assessment and prioritization of WSoS capability gapsassessment.The main results and contributions of this thesis are presented as follows.（1） Aframework for capability-based WSoS assessment is established.First, series of concepts related to capabilities-based WSoS assessment(CBWSoSA) are studied, including WSoS, WSoS capability, WSoS capabilityrequirement, WSoS capability gaps, WSoS capability redundancy, WSoS combateffectiveness and capabilities-based WSoS assessment. Then, five sub-problems ofCBWSoSA are analyzed, including WSoS capability modeling, WSoS capability levelanalysis, WSoS capability requirement acquirement, WSoS capability satisfactoryassessment and prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment. Finally, the processmodel of CBWSoSA is proposed, including WSoS capability requirement acquirementprocess, WSoS capability level analysis process, WSoS comprehensive assessmentprocess and solution generation process. Inputs, outputs, main activities andinterrelationships of theses process are analyzed. Using multi-views approach, areference model for the capability requirements acquirement is proposed.（2） TheWSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis areinvestigated.WSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis is the basis for CBWSoSA.First, capability formalization description and capability indices classification arestudied. Then, a new general capability relationship analysis definition is proposed andrelationships between capabilities, capability-system, capability-basic operationalactivity, capability requirement-WSoS practical capability level are analyzed. Usingmulti-views approach, five capability relationship views (CRV) are established,including the capability taxonomy, capability dependency view, capability-armamentrelationship view, capability-basic operational activity relathionship viewand capability gaps view. Finally, the core data and its relationship of each view are summarized withthe development process for CRV.（3） A RIMER-based WSoS capability satisfactory assessment method isproposed.Considering the multiple uncertainty and input data type in capability requirementsatisfactory degree assessment (CRSDA), a new RIMER (belief rule-based inferencemethodology using evidential reasoning approach, RIMER)-based CRSDA method isproposed from the perspective of capability requirement. The evaluation processincludes four steps: first, establish the belief rule base based on CRV; second, transformthe evaluation data into belief structure; third, determine the activated degree of theinput data to the belief rules; last, calculate the evaluation results using the evidentialreasoning (ER) method. This method can be applied to handle many kinds ofuncertainties, especially deals with ignorance. The result of this method is the beliefdistribution of the WSoS to fulfill its mission.（4） An ER-based prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment methodis proposed.Prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment (PWCGA) ranks the capabilitygaps based on a set of attributes,which can be used to guide national defense projectsselection and related doctrine adjustment. First, the cause, characteristics and relatedissues of WSoS capability gaps are studied. Second, an ER-based prioritization ofWSoS capability gaps assessment is proposed. This method expresses experts’opionionusing belief structure, calculates attribute weights based on goal programming, deriveimportance distribution through ER algorithm, and integrates four operators to get therank value of each capability gaps. Last, a comprehensive weight calculation case offive capability evaluation attributes and four type incomplete preference matrixs derivedfrom the experts is demonstrated, which validates the advantage of the method incomputation complexity and total difference.（5） The armored WSoS (AWS) capability modeling and assessment areinvestigated.First, the system for WSoS capability modeling is designed and developed. Thenfive CRVs of AWS are constructed as an example. Last, the AWS capability satisfactorydegree and capability gap priority are evaluated, which validates the reasonability andeffectiveness of the approach proposed in this dissertation.