Study On Integrated Assessment And Regulation Policies Of China’s Coal Production Capacity

With the high level of investment in fixed assets in China’s coal industry, therelative surplus trend of China’s coal production capacity is more severe. Therefore,scientifically analyzing the cause of the coal overcapacity, reasonably establishing aset of description, analysis and evaluation functions coal production capacityevaluation system, studying coal production regulation mechanism, it is bothcontributing to the establishment of long-term stable relationship between supply anddemand of coal, helping the health of coal industry development by one hand ofChina‘s macroeconomic, and enable to guide the coal producing and avoid the marketrisks, and to prevent sharp fluctuation in coal market. The contributions of this paperare mainly reflected in the following aspects:Firstly, based on the aspect of current situation analysis, this paper focuses on thedevelopment status of coal production capacity, from the point of view of fluctuationsin coal prices, this paper effects the trend of coal market development by learningfrom the coal future market price ideology. The study suggest that: China’s total coalresources are rich but unbalanced regional distribution; the fix investment in coalindustry are running at high level, the coal overcapacity is releasing after theintegration of coal resource, the trend is apparent in future; the current decline in coalprices was mainly due to insufficient domestic demand and international energy pricefluctuations, the capacity has the less influence on coal price, to some extent, thisexplains that current domestic enterprises take the way of―economics of scale‖.Secondly, the paper analyzes the excess capacity driving factors and formationmechanism, this research proves that,(1) the coal enterprise is driven by profit-seeking as to its expanding production to make up for the decreased price at present,thus capacity control relying on industry self-discipline approach is invalid in the longterm;(2) local government investment coal production capacity fluctuatedsignificantly, and the development of local government impulse is largely contributedto the coal production capacity to invest―Wave Phenomenon‖, and it Showedsignificant―enterprises-local government‖Union..Thirdly, this paper establishes the coal capacity comprehensive evaluationsystem by the PSR concept model, and introduces the variable weight method and theTOPSIS method to study the coal production capacity index assessment. Researchindicates that:(1) the "ideal" index of the coal production capacity has a periodicallychange gradually from the "less science" state to a state of "critical science";(2) thepressure faced by coal production capacity mainly comes from coal reserves, demand,transportation and environment constraints;(3) the running state of the coalproduction capacity that changes from the―unscientific‖state to the―critical science‖state, is mainly affected by the ecological environment, coal production and economic benefit, besides the coal mines safety and the technical factors;(4) the "response"index of coal production capacity, on the whole translating from the "unscientific"state to a "less science" state, is impacted mostly by ecological environmentalgovernance and coal capacity investment and the adjustment influence of marketsupply and demand is relatively small.Fourthly, the system dynamics method is used to build the coal productioncapacity regulation model, then adopts the method of scenario analysis to make aforecast about the trend of China‘s coal production capacity development, and sets outa coal capacity regulation policy system according to the sensitivity analysis to judgethe key factors. Research finds that:(1) the coal demand in China has a dramaticchange in different scenarios, it can be total3.852billion tons in TRS, while energyefficiency and energy structure are the main factors influencing the coal demand;(2)in2020China’s coal production capacity will reach4.635billion tons and output4.334billion tons, which shows that the situation of coal supply exceeds demand isvery clear, the key of production capacity regulation is to control the excessive coalindustry investment;(3) the quantity of pollution emission caused by coal productionfollows the change trend of first increased and then drop, and the effect of inverted"U" environment Kuznets curve is relatively obvious, which shows that China’s coalindustry will remain the cycle of regulation after pollution during a period of time inthe future;(4) In the Regulation Scenario, China‘s coal production capacity will reach4.42billion tons, it is a decrease of723million tons compared to the baseline scenario,its cumulative reduction in coal production capacity of3.224billion tons during2011~2020;(5) in order to regulate the coal production capacity in the future, somecritical measures should be taken by the way of coal demand side management,control of imports of coal, coal investment constraints, strengthen the integration ofresources and improve the construction of market mechanism, and so on.Finally, the interactive coal production capacity regulation policies areconstructed from the enterprise level, industry level and macro level according to theformation mechanism, which mainly includes total amount control mechanism, theresources conformity mechanism, backward production capacity control mechanism,investment constraint mechanism, the standard system of coal production capacity,leading mechanism by government and etc.