| Energy is the material base of human activities and the driving force of economicdevelopment and social progress. In the complex situation that a low carbon economyhas become the main battlefield of global competition and interest adjustment, naturalgas has drawn attention globally and become one of the fastest growing energy for itswide range of applications and low carbon. In the next foreseeable30-50years, theshare of natural gas in the total energy consumption will continue to grow. But theworld’s gas supply and demand pattern has changed (the supply and the demand areincreasingly isolated), and, the market system and pattern of trade has also changedwith it. The global gas supply and demand pattern concerns the development space ofour country. Study and judge the change of the world’s gas supply and demand patternscientifically is the premise and foundation for gas strategy making in ourcountry.Also, international natural gas market is the platform of obtaining overseasresources and provide historical reference for completing domestic market.The research methods in this dissertation are mainly theoretical and empiricalanalysis and quantitative and qualitative analysis. We first analysed the history ofglobal natural consumption, and forecast the gas demand of the world, the mainregions and countries in the next30years with the rule of mineral resource demanddeveloped by Institute of Mineral Resources Chinese Academy of GeologicalSciences. On the basis of the predicting outcomes of authorities, such as IEA and EIA,and the policies of some countries, we also forecast the gas supply in the next30years.Taking the future supply and demand situation together, we draw conclusions:①thegas resources are sufficient to meet the demand and the worldwide supply anddemand can balance;②Regional imbalance will be long-standing; the gap of supplyand demand in Asia, especially in China and India will continuously widen;③FSU,Middle East and Africa will continue to be the exporting country.The isolated supply and demand contributes to international trade. On thebackground that global gas supply and demand pattern has changed, we then analyzedthe trade pattern market trend. The results indicate that:①Rising LNG supplies,especially increased short-term trading are accelerating the process of globalization ofnatural gas markets;②The difference between regional markets will narrow;③Oil-indexed pricing will be replaced;④The United States of America has theintention of controling the global natural gas market with huge storage.At last, we throw out suggestions for China’s natural gas development:①Promote a better layout of the overseas natural gas development;②Strengthencooperation with India and ASEAN;③Strengthen the voice of pricing in internationalgas trade;④Relocate the important strategic position of LNG in our country’s energyand strengthen the place in Asia-Pacific LNG markets. |
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