Chinese Natural Rubber Security Of Supply And Demand Under The Global Vision

Natural rubber has characteristics of Industrial raw materials and agricultura1products. It is an important strategic materials and resource-constrained indust ry, with the limitations of the development of regional, limited resources and p roducts are not substitutable. And as one of the pillar industries of China's hot zone agriculture, so it has a profound impact on the hot area farmers' income and the regional economic and social stability. Combined with China's econom ic growth in the industrialized mid-term requirements, making the gap between supply and demand of natural rubber has expanded each year. Nearly more th an80%of natural rubber and40%of synthetic rubber dependent on imports, and this have seriously hampered the development of China's rubber industry. With the change in the level of liberalization of international trade and the eco nomic globalization, the pattern of international trade of natural rubber is also changing. Such as the implementation of mandatory high tariffs; Europe, Ameri ca, Japan and other countries practiced by the Chinese tire industry tire labelin g system; the increase of the collection of environmental tariffs policy, all this were mainly due to the auto industry is pulling natural rubber consumption fa ctors. From the above, we can see that, make predictive analysis on China's na tural rubber supply and demand development trends in the global vision is of great practical significance and theoretical value for the prevention of unsafe ri sk of natural rubber industry.Based on the above analysis to the background of the international trade e nvironment and all regions of the world natural rubber production combined wi th China's actual situation, we established a natural rubber spatial equilibrium Model (NRSEM). The model pointed out that the main factors to affect the na tural rubber market space balance are supply, demand and the circulation. Then, with the help of software Eviews, we estimated the parameter. Take2009as the baseline scenario, from the perspective of a global perspective of changes i n national economic policy, and the terms of trade environment changes on the supply and demand of natural rubber, we established a high, middle and end at three different levels of program, in order to adapt to the uncertainty of fut ure economic development of all regions of the world. Based on simulation res ults, we in-depth analysis the effect of change in these scenarios for a balance d pattern of regional natural rubber, Which in order to. reveal the potential cha nge in trend, and to provide guidance for the implementation of national policy, To protect China's natural rubber industry safety, and promote the sustainable development of China's economy.