Forecast Of Antimony Demand And Outlook For The Pattern Of Supply And Demand

Antimony is a non-renewable strategic mineral which has important application in flame retardants,transportation and machinery manufacturing,it has been referred to as "strategic assets" by many countries.Chinese antimony lead the production,consumption,antimony concentrate import and antimony products export in the world,occupying an important position in the global market.Recent years,Chinese antimony ore consumption is so fast that domestic antimony reserves decline year by year,and the guarantee degree of the mine production has fallen sharply,resources situation is not optimistic.Under this background,the forecast of global and Chinese antimony demand and analysis of future global supply and demand situation is of great significance to improve the security level of antimony resources,promote the healthy development of antimony industry and maintain the security of our resources.This paper summarizes the antimony consumption history and regular of typical consumer.Department demand forecasting method is used to the demand of global and China over the next 25 years,the results show that global demand for antimony vertex will come around 2030,when the global demand is 270000 tons;China and the global demand vertex arrived at almost the same time,the optimistic scenario for 120000 tons and the pessimistic scenario vertex is 113000 tons.The global antimony consumption center focused on China,the United States,the EU countries and other developing countries in the future.By analyzing the resources distribution,development situation of global antimony resources,trade patterns and antimony secondary resources,we think that future antimony supply will still comes from China which supply share would be reduced affected by the situation of domestic resources,and Bolivia,Russia,Australia,and Mexico will be the main complementary resources countries.There will be no big change in the future global pattern of antimony supply and demand compared with previous pattern,but china play the role of “global antimony processing factory”,that is exporting a large number of intermediate products and downstream products to foreign countries by using domestic and abroad antimony raw material.This paper proposes some suggestions to reply the severe antimony resources and strengthen antimony industry development,including: strengthen domestic antimony exploration,encourage enterprises to "go out";control export reasonably and increase the intensity of hitting smuggling;strengthen the antimony industry consolidation and hit illegal mining;strengthen the recycling of antimony secondary resources.