The Research Of U.S Econom "Dualism"

Since long ago, the mainstream economic theory view employment is derivativeand subordinate to the economic growth, so they had the idea that the most powerfulweapon to solve the employment problem is economic growth. Howerer, the currentU.S. economic demonstrated a “high unemployment of economic growth” situationand “Okun’s law” hadn’t effective any more, which made traditional employmenttheory into trouble.Professor Liu Junmin present an concept “economy dualism” thatthe U.S. economy growth and job creation is separated from each other. Based on that,this paper abandoning the traditional economic three-sector classification which couldnot be observed the fact of “Economic fictitilization”, and formate an newthree-sector classification which be named of the real economy、 fictitious economyand low-value service economy sector.It shows that it’s not an accidental phenomenonfor the present economic growth with high unemployment and Okun’s Law falls intotrouble in U.S., instead it indicates that the U.S. economy undertanking a structuralconversion led by economic fictitilization. On this basis, the U.S economic structureis found to be under a continuing trend of dualization which is the GDP growthincreasingly being dependent on the fictitious economy sector and job creationgradually being concentrated in low-value service sector;furthermore, the linkbetween them is continuously weakening, which result in the separation of GDPeconomy and employment economy.When the economy is assumed to be a loop flow system, there are twoperspectives for observation, one is the input-output perspective and the other is cashflow perspective, however a two-dimensional perspective based on the combinationof both is a better way to observe fictitious economic activity.When thistwo-dimensional perspective is applied to the analysis of the economic structure, itshows that economic structure evolution added by economic fictitilization will leadGDP growth to depend on high-value sector, while employment growth depend onhigh employment creation department. Besides, because of the existence of theexclusion between capital and labor, they can not coexist in the same carrier; that is to say, department in the the economic system which is both high value-created andemployment-created will be to exist. Thus, assuming there is an economic systemconsisting of physical sector, asset sector and service sector, in which thecontribution of physical sector to GDP and employment will be continue to decline,the contribution of asset sector to GDP rises much faster than that of employment,and the contribution of service sector to employment is much higher than itscontribution to GDP, eventually there must be an inevitable trend of separation ofGDP growth and job creation in the unbalanced economic growth process.This is thebasic ideas and logical framework to study GDP growth and job creation of U.S.under the condition of economic fictitilization.The United States started the acceleration of economic fictitilization since the1970s, and the core economy shows the characteristic of "fictitilization" and"deindustrialization" in the continuous process of fictitilization. The manufacturingsector used to be the core of GDP in the1950s, but it was replaced by financial andreal estate sector since1970s. So the driving force of the U.S. GDP growth haschanged from manufacturing sector to financial and real estate sector, and it shows atrend of being more and more solidified currently. From the structure of employmentcreation, employment contribution of manufacturing sector shows a continueddownward trend; the contribution of art、leisure sector、catering、education andhealth care industry being in a uprising way,and morever the absolute contributionhas exceeded the manufacturing sector since1970s; the trend of other sectors stayedsable; the contribution of government service sector and retail sector has beenmaintaining on a high level; therefore we can judge that core employment creation inthe United States has evolved from the manufacturing sector into low-value servicesector represented by the art and leisure sector and catering industry. From the pointof view of industry association, manufacturing sector is still the dominant sector withhighest capacity of GDP restoring and employment resilience, but the corecontribution sector of GDP is financial real estate sector and the core contributionsector of employment is low-value service sector, which lead to the deviation of thedominant sector in terms of both GDP and employment, resulting in weakening ofactual resilience capacity of economy in GDP growth and employment creation. Unlike stylizing "Kaldor" and "Kuznets" facts, the traditional classification ofagriculture、 industry and service sector is not so effective any more for the newfeatures of GDP and employment’s structure evolution. In the framework of"fictitious economy and real economy", we divide the economic system into traditionalreal sector、fictitious economic sector and low-value service sector, not only couldthis new classification of three sectors analyze economic growth and employmentwhich are two of the four goals of macro-economy, but also provide enoughobservations for economic fictitilization. Based on the analysis, it shows the U.S. hasexperienced fictitilization of core economy, which made the GDP more and moredependence on the fictitious sector; while the nature of the fictitious economy is topursuit of high value, serving for GDP growth; nevertheless employment creation hasto become increasingly dependent on low-value service sector, the core of economicemployment tend to be low-value value. This,the U.S. GDP and employment shows atrend of gradual separation, and the economic structure tends to be in a continuousdualism process. This dualism model of economic growth is the inevitable result ofeconomic fictitilization，the nature of which is the dualism of employment economyand GDP economy. Now the globalization features of vidualismtual economy leads tothe recovery of the U.S. GDP is based on global economy, while employment is stillbased on domestic economy; namely globalization of GDP resilience and localizationof employment, which further exacerbated self-resilience ability of the U.S. economybetween GDP growth and job creation. The separation feature of GDP growth and jobcreation changed the economic foundation on which Okun’s Law being based, sounder favorable economic circumstances,"Okun’s Law relying on GDP andemployment of different economic basis, still holds statistically. However, inrecession or recovery stage, the separation between them will be exposed. The currenteconomic resilience policy ignored the fact of economic dualism，which will onlymake the United States embarked on the road of growth with high unemployment.There are two ways for the United States to get rid of depression through thegovernment’s rescuing policies. Firstly, through structural adjustment to restore thelink between the virtual sector and low-value service sector; the second is througheconomic re-forming plan to gradually reduce dualism level of employment creation economy and GDP economy. However, no matter which one is chosen, there will be along and painful way to go ahead.