Research On Early Warning Of Tourism Safety In Mount Everest Scenic Spot Based On Space Exploration Method

Tourism security is one of the main factors that restrict the health and fastdevelopment of Tibetan tourism. The average altitude of Tibetan plateau is over4,000meters. Its fast exploration of tourism resources have contradicted heavily with theenvironmental bearing ability and tourism reception capacity. The tourist routes here arevery long, and are easily affected by natural disasters, especially in the tourist peak season,which causes a high cost of tourism management and running. While the specialgeographical conditions of high latitude regions, combined with relatively laggard basicfacilities and public service, make the ability of Tibetan tourism to cope with safety riskeven weaker.It’s the basic guarantee of Tibetan tourism sustainable development to improve servicequality, to guarantee tourists’ safety and to protect the natural ecological environment.Focusing on the new method exploration and technical solutions related to early warning intourism scenic spot on plateau, the topic of this thesis came from the national science andtechnology support program “Study on Tibetan tourism crisis prevention and emergencyrescue key technology and its application demonstration (No.2009BAH50B02)”. MountEverest scenic spot as core research subject, according to tourism risk features on highlatitude areas, it studied early warning model of tourism safety based on space exploration,integrating methods of multidisciplinary to establish a comprehensive evaluation system oftourism safety, and put forward a set of information colleting, processing and analyzingmodel suitable for tourism safety early warning on Tibetan plateau. The researchachievement of this thesis not only service for the study area, but also provide explorationidea for tourism safety early warning in high altitude areas of our country even the wholeworld.Due to the geographical environmental particularity of Mount Everest scenic spot, thetourism here are mainly hiking, expedition and scientific investigation, so that its component factors of tourism safety are greatly different from other scenic spots. Accordingto the key factors affecting safety of this scenic spot, this thesis recognized three maintourism safety risks of geological hazard, scenic spot bearing ability, high altitude reaction,and researched corresponding early warning methods. Based on these, tourism safety riskdetectors were constructed, and through model comprehensive evaluation and earlywarning classification, tourism safety comprehensive early warning was completed in theMount Everest scenic spot.(1) The thesis put forward early warning method about geological hazard risk alongtour passages based on GIS space exploration. It analyzed and evaluated the geologicalcondition, development features, formation mechanism, harmfulness of typical debris flowand collapse along Dingzhu Road. Through integrated application of buffer analysis,overlay analysis, spatial correlation analysis and spatial density estimation in ArcGIS9.3software, a geological hazard risk detection model was established based on geographicalspace modeling. Through class early warning about geological hazard risk, it found that thegeological hazards were dispersed along the tour passages, which made the geologicalhazard risk areas distribute fragmented in the Mount Everest scenic spot. The risk roadpoints distributed relatively uniformly, while centralized near Puna Village, Yunjia Villageand Zhufeng Bridge. They had quite same distributing trend with geological hazard points,which indicates the growth of risk road points of Dingzhu Road was controlled bygeological hazard in great degree. Viewing from the risk detection results of tourism safetypassage, the safe areas discretely distributed along the down part of the road from PunaVillage to Zhufeng base camp; the general risk areas distributed widely; the above middiumrisk areas distributed relatively discretely, but centralized near Wolong Village, PunaVillage, Jilong collapse site and Zhufeng Bridge, and within which, the centre of PunaVillage had high risks; the high risk areas in the whole area only distributed near YunjiaVillage and Puna Village.(2) This thesis designed an early warning model framework about regional tourismenvironmental capacity based landscape ecology and ecological footprint method, and putforward a method to measure tourism environmental capacity based on space expression.That is, under the theory framework of “matrix-plaque-corridor” in landscape ecology,using GIS mapping function to manifest the spatial distribution pattern of tourismenvironmental capacity which are decided by the environmental bearing ability of thescenic spot. The result indicated: the tourism environmental daily capacity of MountEverest scenic spot was1128person times,732person times over that of Dingri City. Itspotential tourism environmental capacity and practical capacity were both in low bearing status. The annual tourist amount of59,100person times present was far below its tourismenvironmental capacity of172,900person times, also below the bearing capacity of itsreception facilities342,400person times. Although the actual tourist amount present waslower than the potential capacity (172,900person times) and practical capacity (342,400person times), the practical capacity was over the potential capacity, which made the MountEverest scenic spot in over-exploitation, and the bearing status of tourism facilities was17,3%. If it’s over50%in long term, the potential tourism environmental capacity of thisscenic spot may be in overdraft.(3) A plateau reaction early warning method was put forward in this thesis. Byanalyzing the relationship between AMS and personal factors, and relationship betweenAMS and physiological indexes, it found that the life signs, such as under blood pressure（diastolic blood pressure）, forehead temperature, oxygen concentration in blood, haddistinct correlativity with the latitude, so that such three indexes were chosen as the inputfactors of plateau reaction early warning model. Moreover, through calculation in fuzzy BPneural network, the quantitative relationship between the three life signs and plateaureaction, and a plateau reaction early warning model of “latitude-life signs-AMS” wasestablished. After spatialization of the simulation results received from the early warningmodel, the spatial distribution of plateau reaction in the study area. The results indicated: inthe Mount Everest scenic spot, the high incidence areas of plateau reaction were the col ofJiawula Mountain and the road from Zhufeng Bridge to Zhufeng base camp; the lowincidence areas were the lower region around the col and lower area near Zhufeng Bridge,the spatial pattern of which had high coupling with latitude(4) A concept of tourism safety risk detector was advanced, and its structure, functionand working principle were expatiated. The tourism safety risk detector had threesub-detectors. They are tourism environmental bearing ability detector, tourism passagesafety risk detector, plateau reaction risk detector, which are used to detect the tourismenvironmental overbearing risk, potential geological hazard and road points risk along thetourism passage, plateau reaction risk respectively which the tourists may encounter in theMount Everest scenic spot. According to the risk grades output from the risk detector oftourism environmental capacity, the early warning of tourism safety risk grades in MountEverest Scenic Spot were simulated in three situations (weak, saturated and over tourismenvironmetal capacity). The simulating results indicated: on the spatial distribution, onlywhen under weak capacity, the Mount Everest Scenic Spot has quite small safe regions,most of the whole area has general risks; when under saturated or over capacity, the areafrom Jilong collapse site to Zhufeng base camp is the highest risk area; when under saturated capacity, the whole area has no high risks, most regions has general risks, whileJiawula Col, Wolong Village, Puna Village, regions near Jilong collapse site and ZhufengBridge has middium risks; when under over capacity, the whole area has over middiumrisks, only some quite small regions has genreal risks. The tourism safety risk increasesgradually when the environmental capacity of Mount Everest Scenic Spot from weakcapacity, to saturated capacity, to over capacity.(5) This thesis putted forward software simulating environment of tourism safety earlywarning in Tibet, and through simulation, it realized the work flow of tourism safety earlywarning in area of high altitude, and verified the related methods and practical effect of themodel. With VB.NET10+ArcGIS Server API For Silverlight v2.3technology, accordingto the timely positions of tourists, the system used three risk detectors to evaluate thetourists’ tourism safety early warning grades, and carried out situation simulation inWebGIS software, and finally displayed the dynamic interaction process of tourismenvironmental capacity risk detection, tourism passage safety risk detection and altitudereaction risk detection.