Study On Tourism Safety Risk Evaluation And Early Warning In Changbai Mountain Scenic Area

Entering the 21 st century,people's living standards are constantly improving,and tourism needs are increasingly diversified.From the perspective of global tourism development,the greatest contribution to global tourism growth comes from the Asia-Pacific region.In recent years,with the rapid economic development in China,people are no longer living just for food and clothing,but tend to a higher level of spiritual pursuit.Tourism is one of the important ways for people to relax,broaden their horizons and increase their knowledge.In recent years,the demand for national tourism consumption is strong,and China's tourism development continues to lead the Asia-Pacific countries and regions.However,facing a risk society,people travel all the time facing a variety of risks,tourism safety-related issues began to grab much attention.Scenic area is a regional complex which integrates tourism resources and facilities.It is the main place for tourists' activities.It plays many functions such as receiving tourists,developing(planning)tourism products(activities)and protecting resources.In the process of operation,scenic area will cause personal and property losses to tourists,as well as losses to tourist resources,facilities,and staff due to natural environmental disasters,social environmental problems and human responsibilities.In the traditional study of tourism safety risk evaluation and early warning in scenic area,the risk assessment is mostly static assessment,and early warning is only dangerous early warning,which has not yet risen to risk early warning.In view of this,this paper explores the theoretical system of tourism risk and early warning in Changbai Mountain from the perspective of geography,disaster science and tourism theory,studies the mechanism and dynamic evaluation method of tourism risk in Changbai Mountain,and explores the connotation,dynamic early warning method and release system of tourism risk early warning.This article is divided into seven chapters.In chapter 1,the introduction part elaborates the background and research issues of scenic area tourism safety risk and early warning,research ideas,framework and research progress at home and abroad.In chapter 2,the author defines the related concepts of tourism safety risk and early warning in scenic area,and elaborates the theoretical basis supporting the study,including tourism system theory,tourist behavior theory,risk perception theory,natural disaster risk theory,regional disaster system theory,disaster early warning theory and disaster risk early warning theory,as well as related research methods.In chapter 3,the author puts forward the theoretical system,evaluation process,and methods of tourism safety risk evaluation and early warning,which provides the basis for the follow-up empirical research.In chapter 4,based on the theories and methods mentioned above,the author identifies and analyses the risk of tourist in the study area,explores its formation mechanism,and screens the index factors of tourism safety risk evaluation in the study area,which provides the basis for the follow-up study.In chapter 5,the author takes Changbai Mountain as an empirical research area,starting from the factors affecting tourism safety and emergency management,taking causal diagram as the main analysis method,starting from six elements of tourism,analyses the risk factors that may affect tourism safety in Changbai Mountain from three aspects: natural environment,social environment and personal resbonsibility,and preliminarily screens out the risk factors affecting tourism safety.Based on the preliminary screening results of tourism risk factors in Changbai Mountain,principal component analysis and factor independence test were used to screen 10 factors are taken as evaluation factors.,they are natural disaster risk,air pollution,water pollution,crime,terrorism,international relations,dietary hygiene,blackout,traffic accident and scenic area service.In order to make up for the problem that static scenic area tourism safety risk evaluation cannot continuously express the results,the dynamic Bayesian network model is used to realize the dynamic assessment of tourism safety risk in Changbai Mountain in an hour.The evaluation results show that the risk zones of tourism safety in Changbai Mountain are strip-like distribution.The reason is that Changbai Mountain is a mountain-type scenic area,and the tour routes are all mountaineering routes,and the main scenic area are all located near the mountaineering routes;high-risk areas coincide with the main scenic area,indicating that the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation;the risk intensity changes with time obviously,from the time point of view,the first period(8:00-10:00)and the fourth period(14:00-16:00)The risk in the scenic area is relatively low;the second(10:00-12:00)and the third(12:00-14:00)periods have higher risk because of the large number of tourists in the scenic area.In chapter 6,the author starts with the identification of warning sources of early warning in Changbai Mountain and identifies the dangerous sources from three aspects: natural environment,social environment,and personal responsibility.Through the analysis of warning signs and the combination of early warning theory,it is divided into endogenous warning signs and exogenous warning signs,endogenous warning signs represent the evaluation results of its warning sources,and exogenous warning signs are the comprehensive evaluation of the potential losses caused by it,which are shown as personnel,economy,resources and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities;the threshold of early warning of tourism safety risk in Changbai Mountain is determined,and the tourism safety in Changbai Mountain is determined by the optimal Threshold division of risk early warning value is carried out;combining risk early warning theory and GIS technology,aiming at the weak links in the process of disaster prevention and mitigation in Changbai Mountain,spatial analysis and grid technology of GIS technology are used to solve the dynamic early warning problem of tourism safety risk in hours.The results show that there are more blue early warning grids in the first period(8:00-10:00),but fewer red early warning grids and orange early warning grids;more red,orange and yellow early warning grids in the second and third periods(10:00-14:00),while the number of blue early warning grid is gradually decreasing;in the fourth period(14:00-16:00),red,orange and yellow are gradually decreasing,while the number of blue early warning grid is gradually increasing.In view of the actual situation of Changbai Mountain and the process of issuing disaster early warning information,this paper discusses the issuing process of tourism safety risk early warning information from three aspects: the issuing process,the issuing mode and the issuing system,with a view to In order to provide decision-making basis for the release of tourism safety risk warning information of Changbai Mountain scenic area.Chapter 7 is conclusion and prospect.Through the summary of the research,the main conclusions of the study are drawn,the innovation points and shortcomings of the research contents are also put forward,and the focus and research direction of the future study are expounded.This study enriches the theoretical system of tourism safety research and achieves a breakthrough in the accuracy of tourism safety risk evaluation and the content of early warning in scenic area.The results of this study provide theoretical support for the healthy and sustainable development of Changbai Mountain scenic area,scientific basis for its safety risk evaluation,and intellectual support for the improvement of the tourism safety guarantee system of scenic area.