Research On Key Indicators Selecting Of Low-carbon Benefit Of Smart Grid And Its Evaluation Models

For responding to the change of global climate and achieving the sustainable development of economy, society and environment, developing low-carbon economy has been taken as a national core strategy in many countries in recent years. As the main source of CO2emission in China, the power industry is required to change its development mode to promote the power system to realize the development of low-carbon as soon as possible. Smart Grid can support the introduction of various low-carbon technologies, and thus bring benefit of reducing carbon emission. Therefore, evaluating low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid is significant to promote the construction of China’s Smart Grid, the implement the national task of reducing carbon emission and the development of low-carbon economy. This paper takes the low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid as its research object. In this paper, the formation mechanism of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid is discussed, the key indicators of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid are selected and the evaluation models of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid are built under three scenarios of static, dynamic and eliminate interference factors in order to provide references for the construction of Smart Grid and the development of low-carbon economy in China.Firstly, the formation mechanism of Smart Grid achieving low-carbon benefit is analyzed based on the connotation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit. According to the status of China, the development mode and support system of China’s Smart Grid are analyzed, especially, the technology support system is discussed a key point. The definition and connotation of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid are defined based on the characteristics of China’s Smart Grid. On this basis, the influence mechanism and emission reduction capability of advanced low-carbon technologies which provide support for Smart Grid promoting the development of low-carbon power system is analyzed. The concrete paths of Smart Grid realizing low-carbon benefit on generation side, grid side and demand side are cleared, which can provide research foundation for key indicators selecting of low-carbon benefit and its evaluation models.Secondly, the key indicators of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid are selected based on Structure Entropy and Factor Analysis optimization model. The key indicators are selected preliminarily from generation side, grid side and demand side based on the path of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid. On this basis, the Structure Entropy and Factor Analysis optimization model of key indicators of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit is built by applying entropy theory and statistics principle. Based on Entropy and Factor Analysis optimization model, reduce the uncertainty of preliminary selection of key indicators by Structure Entropy, use SPSS software to analyze the factor of preliminary selection of key indicators and optimize the preliminary selection of key indicators by factor loading. Then make reliability test and validity test for the optimal indicators. At last, the key evaluation indicator system of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid is established from two dimensions of the static evaluation and dynamic evaluation, which can provide a framework for the establishment of evaluation models of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit.Thirdly, the static evaluation on the level of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid is researched based on ANP-Fuzzy static evaluation model. Considering the characteristics of static evaluation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit, design the overall indicator system, evaluation grades and evaluation standards of static evaluation based on the key indicator system of static evaluation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit. On this basis, the ANP-Fuzzy static evaluation model of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid is built by applying analytic network process theory and fuzzy mathematics theory. Based on ANP-Fuzzy static evaluation model, design ANP network structure, which can reflect the relationships among the static evaluation indicators and Fuzzy hierarchy evaluation structure, use Super Decisions software to determine the weights of indicators in the ANP network structure and use Matlab software to static evaluate the level of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid in the Fuzzy hierarchy evaluation structure.Fourthly, the dynamic evaluation on the amount of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid is researched based on SD dynamic evaluation model. Considering the characteristics of dynamic evaluation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit, design the causality loop of dynamic evaluation based on the key indicator system of dynamic evaluation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit. On this basis, the SD dynamic evaluation model of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid is built by applying system dynamics theory. Based on SD dynamic evaluation model, set the parameters in SD model with regard to the actual and expected situations of China’s power grid, describe the dynamic feedback system of Smart Grid promoting the low-carbon development in China, use Vensim PLE software to simulate the dynamic process of Smart Grid realizing low-carbon benefit under different scenarios in the dynamic feedback system and then evaluate the amount of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid.Finally, the evaluation on the input-output efficiency of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid with eliminating environmental impact factors is researched based on Three-stage DEA and Super-efficiency DEA evaluation model. Considering the characteristics of evaluation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit with eliminating environmental impact factors, select the key stock variables in SD dynamic evaluation model as the input indicators, select the reduction of CO2emission in SD dynamic evaluation model as the output indicator and then establish the evaluation indicator system of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid with eliminating environmental impact factors with regard to the important external environmental impact factors, such as economic growth, consumption and investment. On this basis, the evaluation model of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid with eliminating environmental impact factors is built based on Three-stage DEA and Super-efficiency DEA by applying data envelopment analysis theory and stochastic theory. Based on Three-stage DEA and Super-efficiency DEA evaluation model, use Frontier4.1software to eliminate the noise effect of external environmental impact factors in the input-output efficiency evaluation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit, use DEAP2.1software to evaluate the input-output efficiency of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid at different times or in different regions and finally use EMS1.3software to distinguish the effective input-output efficiencies further, which have the same evaluation score.The results of the researches show that the selected key indicators of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid are scientific and rational with high reliability and validity, and in accordance with China’s actual conditions and Smart grid development trend, these indicators can provide effective guidance framework for the evaluation of Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit in China. The constructed evaluation models of low-carbon benefit of Smart Grid are comprehensive and effective. These models can reflect Smart Grid’s low-carbon benefit in different views such as level, amount and input-output efficiency. Moreover, all of those evaluation models can be achieved with related software. Easy operation makes these models have a high application value.