Research On The Optimization Of Industrial Structure In Hebei Province Based On Carbon Emissions

With the continuous growth of carbon emissions and its great threat to the globalecological environment, how to reduce carbon emissions has become the focus of mostcountries in the world.This article explores the relationship between the carbon emissionsof Hebei province and its main affecting factors from different aspects; it also, using theindex decomposition method analyzes the influence of each industrial output value ofdifferent years in Hebei province and the influence of the change of carbon emissionsthat per unit output value on the total carbon emissions. It also comprehensivelyevaluates the carbon intensity of each industry with grey correlation method, identifiesthe key-monitoring carbon emission areas in Hebei province, and at last according to thefindings comes up with the strategies of industrial adjustment and optimization in HebeiProvince.Firstly, this article emphasizes on the population and social economic developmentof Hebei province. Various energy consumptions can be calculated in the light of theenergy consumption structure and the total energy consumption of Hebei province.Furthermore, according to the total energy consumption and carbon emissionscoefficients of various energies, the carbon emissions of various energy and the totalcarbon emissions can be computed. By simple correlation analysis, partial correlationanalysis and neural network analysis, the relationship between carbon emissions and itsmain influencing factors can be found. In this part, based on the regression equationsbetween main influencing factors of carbon emissions and its time, the predictive valueof main influencing factors of carbon emissions is used to forecast carbon emissions.Secondly, adopting the index decomposition method, this article analyzes theinfluence of each industrial output value of different years in Hebei Province and theinfluence of the change of carbon emissions that per unit output value on the total carbonemissions, also the influence of the changes of industrial structure and carbon emissionchanges of per unit output value in different industries on the total carbon emissions perunit output value. In order to reflect the different roles played by different industries in the increment and growth of carbon emissions, this article innovatively calculates theshare rate of carbon emissions increment and the pulling rate of carbon emissions growthin different industries.Thirdly, among the industries above designated size, in order to select the industrieswhich need adjustment and development, this article chooses three indices of carbonemissions intensity including carbon emissions of per unit number of employees, carbonemissions of per unit total output value and carbon emissions of unit profit. The weightsof three indices can be evaluated by Entropy method. The average correlation coefficientof carbon intensity within the industries is calculated by Grey Relation method, which istaken as the basis for industrial structure adjustment and optimization. According to theresults of comprehensive evaluation, the industries demanding adjustment anddevelopment can be determined, which provides ideas for the adjustment of industrialstructure. Meanwhile, this article analyzes the regional total carbon emissions and carbonintensity from the perspective of regional distribution of carbon emissions in Hebeiprovince. The results indicate that the carbon emissions in Tangshan, Handan,Shijiazhuang and Zhangjiakou of Hebei Province should be given prior monitoring.Finally, through the analysis of total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of threeindustries, the optimization strategy of three industries is to actively develop the firstindustry, try to compress the second industry and vigorously develop the third industry. Inthe first industry, Hebei Province should speed up the development of regionalcharacteristic agriculture, green agriculture and export-oriented agriculture; make effortsto increase the degree of specialization of production and vigorously develop forestry toincrease the reserves of forest carbon sink. In the second industry, Heibei Province willcarry out its structure optimization mainly in7industries and industrial restructuringwhile taking into account other factors. In the third industry, in term of low carbon,Heibei Province should actively develop cultural industry and fully exploit tourismindustry. Meanwhile, this part proposes a mechanism of strategy that Heibei Provinceshould establish carbon trading market, strive to improve the recovery rate of mineralresources and construct the circular economy industrial parks.