Study On The Comprehensive Evaluation And Its Spatial Differences Of The Coordinated Development Level Of Industrialization, Urbanization And Agricultural Modernization In Yangtze River Basin

Seen from the concept of in the industrialization and urbanization in-depth development toproceed with the modernization of agriculture (hereinafter―three modernizations‖) that proposedat the fifth plenary session of the17th CPC Central Committee and the scientific connotation ofpromoting harmonized development of industrialization, IT application, urbanization andagricultural modernization, both of them reflected the constantly in-depth understanding ofmodernization. Especially, with the development of information technology, informatizationintegration is enhancing the modernization level. Coordinated development of―threemodernizations‖is good for the unrestricted flow of information resources, and it becomes thebasis and important content in the promoting harmonized development of―four modernizations‖.At present, China is in a critical transforming period from―three modernizations‖to―fourmodernizations‖, Different region development route in three modernizations is uneven. How tocarry out research on the comprehensive evaluation of―three modernizations‖coordinatedevelopment and its spatial differences under the background of―four modernizations‖requirements is an issue worthy of further study.The industrialization theory, urbanization theory and modern agriculture theory are the basictheory in this paper. Used systems engineering theory, this paper firstly analyzed the scientificconnotation and realization mechanism. And then it summarized the status of coordinateddevelopment of―three modernizations‖. After it, this paper found out the reflection ofasynchronous―three modernizations‖in Yangtze River Basin.Secondly, a comprehensive evaluation system including19indexes for―threemodernizations‖is built to measure the comprehensive development level of―threemodernizations‖in Yangtze River Basin from2000to2012, and in40cities alongside YangtzeRiver from2009to2011under the principle component analysis and efficacy coefficient. Afterthen, Geometric mean and arithmetic average adjustment method was used to calculate theregional unbalanced index of―three modernizations‖. The main findings from the evaluationsystem were:-In the period of2000to2012, the―three modernizations‖comprehensive level in eachregion and reaches in Yangtze River Basin was on the rise.-Regional―three modernizations‖comprehensive level West East high low with steppeddistribution characteristics. Higher coordination degree was aggregated in Yangtze River Deltaregion and parts of provincial capital, especially Shanghai, Suzhou, Changzhou, Wuxi andNanjing were rank in top five from2009to2011. While the ecological fragile region, likesZhaotong, Zigong, Luzhou, Yibin, etc. and the major grain producing region, likes Chuzhou,Yueyang, Jinzhou, Huanggang, etc. with low degrees.-Disequilibrium of development level among Upper Yangtze, Middle Yangtze and LowerYangtze appeared clearly. In2012, Shanghai was in the high-class coordination state, Jiangsu andZhejiang province were in middle-class coordination state, while Yunnan Province was in the extreme imbalance state. Other provinces presented some minor maladjustment.-Regional unbalanced degree existed visible difference. The unbalanced degree in MiddleYangtze proper was the lowest while the upper Yangtze River was the highest. However, the gapsamong the three reaches tend to be narrowed.Thirdly, ESDA and SLM model were used to analyze the spatial differences and spatialcorrelation of―three modernizations‖comprehensive development level. The main findings fromthe model were:-―three modernizations‖spatial cluster was shift from single Shanghai to middle and lowerYangtze River in the period of2000to2012, while in2012, the H-H spatial cluster fell on Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai, the―three modernizations‖spatial diffusion mode realized thetransformation from point to surface.-Using SLM model for―three modernizations‖and per capita GDP, this paper calculated theregional economic growth spillover effect. The total influential effect of regional economic growthto―three modernizations‖was increased from0.4022to0.4434while in consideration the spatialspillover effect. Meanwhile, regional economic growth spatial spillover contributed9%to theregional―three modernizations‖. In addition, while one region―three modernizations‖comprehensive level improve10%, its adjoining region―three modernizations‖comprehensivelevel can rise up3.9774%.Fourthly, how the different main functional area choose the coordinate development routes,combining with the different main functional area planning in Yangtze River Basin, three patternsin coordinate development of―three modernizations‖were summarized in this paper. That wasmacrocosm―three Modernizations‖synchronically promoting mode in development zone,industry linkage mode of coordinately promoting―three Modernizations‖in agricultural productsproducing zone, and coordinately promoting development of ecological―three Modernizations‖inecological fragile zone.Finally, policy suggestions, based on the research conclusions, are given in terms ofaccelerating transformation of the farming practice, upgrading effect of industry structure,promoting the development of small towns, and adhering to the principle of industrialconvergence and city integration in the practicing of―three modernizations‖coordinatedevelopment in different main functional area.