An Empirical Study Of Comprehensive Evaluation And Influential Factors Of Coordinated Development Of Regional "Four Modernizations"

The report of the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC proposed that "promoting synchronous development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization". It places the coordinated development of "four modernizations" in a prominent position in economic and social construction and becomes a guiding principle of the future development of our country. In recent years, the construction of "four modernizations" develops rapidly and all work goes ahead by leaps and bounds. But the problem of asynchronous "four modernizations" and unbalanced regional development is still prominent. It should be paied attention to by all aspects. Therefore, in order to know the current developing situation and find suitable solutions, it is a very important subject, which has practical and long-term meaning, to do research on comprehensive evaluation, spatio-temporal evolution, influential factors and convergence status of coordinated development level of regional "four modernizations".Firstly, according to relevant principles, the dissertation constructs the evaluation index system of coordinated development of regional "four modernizations" and calculates every province’s index of each modernization in last 10 years. By the capacity coupling coefficient model, the dissertation constructs the comprehensive development level model, coupling degree model and coordinated development degree model of "four modernizations". And the indices of the three degrees of every province in each year are obtained. Then, all provinces are divided by the standard of coordinated development level. The study finds that subsystem development of "four modernizations" is not balanced. The industrialization level is the highest, urbanization is the second, agricultural modernization and informatization is the lowest. The coordinated development level of each province is constantly improving and the coordination grade is continuously elevating. East’s level is always the highest in the whole country, Middle and West have traded the lead several times. Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong lead the development of the country, and they had entered the advanced coordination stage in 2012. Guizhou is relatively backward, lagging behind other provinces. The distribution pattern of coordinated development degree gradually transforms from pyramid to fusiform, showing a state of pointed ends and bulged middle.Secondly, by the spatial correlation method, spatial weight matrix is set. The global Moran’s I and Geary’s C index are calculated and tested by Z-statistic. It finds that each year’s Moran’s I is greater than 0 and Geary’s C is less than 1 and all pass the 1% significance test. Positive spatial correlation is obvious, and coordinated development of all provinces has mutual promotional relation. Through calculating the local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord G index and drawing the Moran scatter plot, LISA cluster map and cold-hot map, it finds that the coordinated development level shows high in the east and low in the west and the hierarchical pattern is very obvious. The high value cores are mainly concentrated in Beijing-Tianjin and Yangtze River Delta, and low value cores are mainly concentrated in southwest provinces. They form a structure of two peaks and one valley. On the whole, the number of high level provinces is small, and that of low level provinces is relatively large. So the whole country is centered on low value aggregation. But it shows a trend towards high value aggregation, although the process is a bit slow.Thirdly, in view of the factors influencing coordinated development of regional "four modernizations", the dissertation uses spatial econometric model to do regression analysis. Nationwide analysis shows that the spatial autoregressive coefficient p is significantly positive. It means positive spatial spillover effect exists and the relation among all provinces is mutual promotion. Economic level, international trade, fixed asset investment, technological innovation, education input, public health service and energy-saving and emission-reduction can significantly promote the coordinated level of "four modernizations". But the coefficients of fiscal expenditure, traffic infrastructure and social security are not significant and these factors have not played effective roles in promoting level. Comparative analysis of East, Middle and West shows that spatial autoregressive coefficients are all significantly positive. It means positive spatial correlation is obvious in all three areas and provinces in each area promote each other. The coefficients of fixed asset investment, public health service and energy-saving and emission-reduction are all significantly positive. They are promoting factors. Economic development in Middle and West, international trade in East and West, technological innovation in Middle are significantly positive. It reflects the differences of promoting abilities of these factors in the three areas.Fourthly, the dissertation uses σ convergence, β convergence and club convergence test methods to examine astringency of coordinated development of regional "four modernizations". The study finds that coefficients of variation are all decreasing in the whole country and three areas. They all show obvious a convergence. The East’s convergnce rate is the fastest, Middle is the second and West is the slowest. East and Middle are faster than the whole country, but West are slower. In β convergence, convergence coefficient is significantly negtive. It means absolue β convergence exists nationwide. In consideration of some exogenous control variables, such as geographical location, energy consumption and technological innovation, conditional β convergence also exists. Each province will converge to its own steady state in the future. β convergence exists in all three areas and it means club convergence phenomenon is obvious.Finally, according to analysis results, the dissertation puts forward a series of countermeasures and suggestions to improve coordinated development of "four modernizations" from such angles like speeding up development of weak subsystem, strengthening exchanges and cooperation among different regions, reinforcing economic and social foundation and strengthening institution innovation.