| As the global population and social economy are growing rapidly,human beings are developing the economy on the basis of a large consumption of resources mainly contains carbon resource,at the meantime,environmental pollution problems mainly the greenhouse gas-based pollution become increasingly prominent.Problems like climate warming,glacier melting,rising sea levels,the deterioration of ecological environment and frequent extreme weather have gradually become the focus of attention from all walks of life.Land is the space carrier for human activities,and urban expansion,industrial layout,energy consumption,and other human activities are closely related to land use,which means changes in land use will affect the urban natural carbon cycle process directly,and change the level of anthropogenic carbon emissions indirectly.However,most of the previous studies on carbon emissions from land use were carried out from carbon emissions release and impact mechanism to measure the natural and artificial sources of carbon emissions as well as analyzing the impact factors of the changes,and then put forward suggestions for reducing carbon emissions.Therefore,it has yet to be explored to conduct researches on systematic analysis on urban social economy and land use as well as the interaction mechanism analysis of impact factors,based on which to study the effect of controllable variables on urban system in accordance with the requirements for sustainable development.Based on related researches around the academic circles on carbon emissions,this paper integrates and measures the carbon emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources of different types of urban land use,and analyzes the land use carbon emissions,carbon sinks and carbon emissions intensity during 1996-2014 in Wuhan,as well as studying the decomposition research of the impact factors.On this basis,this paper analyzes the relationship between inputs like urban population,capital,land resource,energy,and outputs like industrial products,GDP,carbon emissions,from a systematic perspective,through the system dynamic model of urban land use carbon emissions.The analysis research leads to the result of the change of land use carbon emissions in Wuhan and the role of its regulating and controlling factors.Then the system model simulation method is applied to analyze changes and possible regulation of each subsystem of land use carbon emissions system in Wuhan.By further studying the connection and running mechanism between system of urban economy,land use and carbon emissions,this paper put forward countermeasures and suggestions to reduce land use carbon emissions in line with the need of city's sustainable development.The main content of this research are as follows:(1)The paper pus forward the research topic based on the realistic demand for land use carbon emissions reduction,and gives a summary of the trend of the relatively research at home and abroad.Based on systematic induction and summary of studies on the mechanism of land use carbon emissions,the effects of land use carbon emissions,the measurement of land use carbon emissions,the impact factors of land use carbon emissions,urban land use carbon emissions reduction and system dynamics simulation model,the paper gives a review and comment on domestic and foreign research progress,and proposes that it need to go further for the present researches on systematic analysis of urban social economy and land use carbon emissions,as well as interaction mechanism of each impact factors.(2)In accordance with current theoretical and practical needs,this paper gives a definition to land use/cover change,land use carbon emissions,carbon source and carbon sink and carbon storage,energy consumption and low-carbon land use,meanwhile combs the sustainable theory,man-land relationship theory,system science theory and optional land allocation theory,which laid the theoretical foundation for this research.(3)The land use carbon emissions and sinks of Wuhan were measured to obtain the net carbon emissions according to the different land use types.Overall,the land use carbon emissions rose year by year,which increased from 12.83 million tons to 25.79 million tons between 1996 and 2014,with 3.96% average growth rate per annum.Both the per unit land area of carbon emission intensity and per capital carbon emission intensity are increasing yearly,which increased from 1800 t/km2 and 1.79 t/per to 3600 t/km2 and 3.12 t/per between 1996 and 2014 respectively,with an average annual growth rate of 3.93% and 3.13%.However,the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP is declining continually from 1.64 tons per ten thousand yuan to 0.26 tons per ten thousand yuan between 1996 and 2014,fell at an annual rate of 9.73%,which respects the economic development is faster than the land use carbon emissions growth.According to the LMDI model,it is found that the influencing factors including land use structure factors,economic factors,and population factors have a passive effect on the land use carbon emission in 1997-2014 compared with the based year.The cumulative contribution rates of the above three factors to carbon emissions were 9.79%,85.11% and 5.10% respectively.However,the land use carbon emissions are inhibited at a certain extent by land use efficiency and energy efficiency,which the cumulative contribution rate to carbon reduction were 80.76% and 19.24%.(4)According to the modeling steps of system dynamics,we determine the principle,purpose and system boundary of the model,and divide the system into five subsystems,which including Carbon Emissions Land Subsystem,Carbon Emissions Economic Subsystem,Carbon Emissions population Subsystem,Carbon Emissions Energy Subsystem,and Carbon Emissions Environment Subsystem.Then,according to the relationship between the five subsystems and the feedback relationship among the variables,the Vensim software was used to establish the system dynamic model of the urban land use carbon emission,further to obtain the causal relationship diagram and flow chart of the urban land use carbon emission.(5)Based on the socio-economic historical data and the actual development situation of Wuhan,the relevant parameters and equations of the system dynamics model of land use carbon emission in Wuhan were determined to obtain the dynamic system model of land use carbon emission.And then test the model by visual and operational tests,historical tests and sensitivity analysis,which the results show that the model has good stability,and can be used to simulate the actual system.At last the simulation of the land use carbon emission from 2016 to 2020 in Wuhan is carried out.The simulation results show that:(1)It is feasible to use this model to predict the land use carbon emissions in Wuhan and to simulate the corresponding policy.The model will also be applied to the analysis of similar problems in other regions.(2)With the further development of socio-economic and urban population in Wuhan,the total amount of land use carbon emissions will continue to rise year by year.It can be seen from the simulation results that the future task of carbon emission reduction is still grim relatively,the government should speed up the development strategy of low-carbon and land use planning to realize the low-carbon land use.(6)To simulate the economic,population,energy,land and environment subsystem respectively under different policy scenarios in which the control parameters are adjusted,and then inductive analysis and comparative analysis are conducted.Conclusions are listed as follows:(1)The rapid growth of economy is the main reason which lead to the growth of land use carbon emissions in Wuhan,followed by the land use structure adjustment.The level of population growth has some impacts on the growth of land use carbon emissions,but compared with the rapid economic growth and the land use structural adjustment,its impact is relatively small.(2)Adjusting the land use structure and controlling the conversion of agricultural land to construction land is the major approach to curb the land use carbon emission problem in Wuhan.(3)Industrial restructuring plays an important role in reducing land use carbon emissions.(4)The energy structure adjustment and the improvement of energy efficiency have a certain effect on reducing land use carbon emissions,but the effect is limited.This also indicates that energy efficiency have less impact on land use carbon emissions systems compared to land and economic factors.(5)Compared with the effect of land use structure adjustment,industrial structure adjustment,the energy structure adjustment and the energy efficiency improvement,the effect of raising the public low-carbon awareness on carbon emission reduction is relatively weak.Finally,based on the analysis above,the paper makes a comprehensive simulation of the system to find a simulation scheme which can guarantee the stable economic growth of Wuhan and also realize the target of carbon emission by 2022.It is expected to provide decision-making reference and research support for the realization of low carbon land utilization in Wuhan.(7)According to the results of Wuhan urban land use carbon emission system dynamics simulation research which is introduced previously,combined with the actual situation of Wuhan's economic and social development,countermeasures and suggestions on land use carbon emission reduction are presented.Those advices are given from the aspect of the economic system,population system,land system,energy system and environmental system.Suggestions for the economic system include:(1)Changing the economic development pattern,comprehensively promoting low-carbon economy and recycling economy;(2)Adjusting the industrial structure,restricting the development of the secondary industry and vigorously developing the tertiary industry;(3)Encouraging the shift of industries from high energy consumption to using low-carbon technology and low-carbon equipment,designing an industrial upgrading plan that's suitable for Wuhan.As for the population system: It is advised to stick to the family planning policy,ensure the enforcement of the new two-children policy.Suggestions to improve the land system include:(1)Improving the farm land protection responsibility system and popularizing ecological agriculture;(2)Strengthening the protection of grassland and waters,making full use of them to regulate and reduce carbon emission;(3)Stressing the supervision on use of forest land,forbidding the destruction behavior;(4)Strictly controlling the amount of construction land and exploiting the potential of construction land to achieve intensive use;(5)Promoting the Innovation of low-carbon land use system and the construction of legal system;(6)Developing low-carbon land use technology.Suggestions to improve the energy system include:(1)Increasing investment in scientific research;(2)Making the price market-oriented to get higher energy efficiency;(3)Developing and applying new energy source.Suggestions for the environmental system include:(1)Taking into account the low-carbon environmental factors when doing the overall urban city plan and design,putting the design of low-carbon energy-saving infrastructure into the initial design phase;(2)Actively advocating low-carbon life,seeking ways to lower citizen's carbon footprint and change the outdated high-consumption lifestyle,to develop the habit of low-carbon environmental protection.(8)Conclusions and discussions.It summarizes the full text and looks forward to the future research directions. |
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