The Macro-factor Model Of Coal Mine Safety And The Law Of Unsafe Behavior Of Workers

For a long time coal resources have been leading and basic energy in China,which is difficult to change in the future for quite a long time.From now to 2020,it is a critical period of rapid development of the national economy,rapid and sustained growth in energy consumption;it is a historic leap stage of the implementation of safety strategy,building a moderately prosperous society;it is also a crucial stage to strengthen and improve work for safety in coal mine production,to achieve a fundamental improvement in situation of safety in coal mine production.In recent years,situation of safety in coal mine production in China has continued to be stabilized and improved,work for safety in coal mine production has achieved remarkable results.However,as the coal mine itself is accidental,occasional,multiple high-risk industry,which is combined with poor conditions of coal mines in China and serious disasters and other subjective and objective reasons,there are still some weak links and outstanding problems in safety in coal mine production,situation of safety in coal mine production is still grim.Coal mine accidents are caused by multiple factors or a combination of multiple factors.With the development of social economy,the descending curve of accident-related indicators tends to be gentle,and it will be difficult to reduce it after a certain period.It is necessary to consider all the factors and find new breakthroughs.Therefore,for a comprehensive grasp of the coal mine,focusing on control of production risks,changing passive emergency after the accident to active advance prevention,improving the efficiency and effectiveness of coal mine safety management,improving the scientific management level it is of great significance to grasp the macroscopic rule of coal mine accidents,to analyze the characteristics of macroscopic influence factors of coal mine production,and its contribution to safety production,to analyze for further in-depth short board of safety in coal mine production-unsafe behavior of employees,to explore underlying mechanism,hierarchical structure and importance of factors related to unsafe behavior of coal mine employees,to put forward the method of macroscopic pre-control of risks for safety in coal mine production and the active control system of unsafe behavior of employees.(1)Study on the macroscopic rule of coal mine accident reveals the rhythm and cycle of internal development and evolution of coal mine accidents,it is the characterization of results of coupling effect of the influencing elements inside the system,describes the internal inevitability of a single accidental accident.Multidimensional statistical studies are carried out towards the rule of occurrence and development of coal mine accident in China.Analyzing is made of the overall evolution of the accident in different historical periods,the rule of periodic variation of number of coal mine deaths is received,the development of safety level in coal mine production is divided into four stages: from the founding of the country to 1964-a period of huge volatility,1965-1978-the accident climbing period,1979-2002 – a high incidence and fluctuation period,since 2003-a rapid decline period.After analyzing the characteristics of evolution of coal mine accidents during the 12 th Five-Year Plan period,it is found that it will be affected by coal demand,flood season,major festivals and social and political activities;from two aspects of characteristics of regional evolution of coal mine accidents in China during the 12 th Five-Year Plan period-provincial units and geographical distribution,coal mine accident-prone provinces in China are Sichuan,Hunan,Chongqing,Guizhou and Yunnan;distribution of total number of accidents and deaths in coal mines in China during the 11 th and 12 th Five-Year Plan periods are in line with the actual accident triangle law of China's coal mines,that is,the probability of occurrence of accidents decreases with increasing of severity of the accidents.After comparing the laws of the two periods,it is found that,the rule has the characteristics of changing with the progress of science and technology,the adjustment of national industry and energy structure,the change of government supervision mode,the improvement of safety policy laws and regulations,the knowledge of human capital safety and the difference of ability,the accident triangle has a flattened trend of change;after dynamic analysis from the perspective of historical development of macroscopic level of development and development trend of coal industry in China,it is found that,safety in coal mine production in China is still in a rapid decline period,the gap between us with the developed countries in the world is obvious,in the future it will gradually enter the gentle decline period,the accident rate will slow down.Mortality of million tons of coal mines in China is equivalent to the level of United States in 70-80 years in last century,the rate of decline is the same as that of the United States in 40 years in last century,by 2020 the predicted mortality of million tons of coal mines in China is 0.04-0.06,which is equivalent to the level of the United States around 1993.(2)From the macroscopic point of view factors influencing safety in coal mine production are divided into four categories: safety technology and equipment,enterprise staff quality,laws and regulations about safety management and safety in production and safety supervision.Through the various categories of influencing factors indicators were subdivided,in this paper the index system of macroscopic factors influencing safety in coal mine production in China is constructed,and according to the Cobb-Douglas production function and the Solow residual method,the theoretical model of the macroscopic factors influencing safety in coal mine production in China is established,using the statistical data from 2004 to 2009,quantitative analysis of macroscopic factors influencing safety in coal mine production is performed,The results show that,overall speaking,the contribution rate of each factor is not significant from 2005 to 2009.Safety level in coal mine production in China in recent years has been greatly improved,accident indicators decreased rapidly,mainly it is the result of safety law enforcement,safety supervision,the increase in the number of coal mine engineering and technical personnel,as well as the invention and application of the new technology and new achievements and the rapid development of mining mechanization,and contribution of safety management is minimal for increasing of safety level in coal mine production.When safety technology level and laws and regulations are almost perfect,continuing to reduce accidents and mortality by raising the quality of staff and safety management level is particularly important.(3)The input of macro impact factors for safety production has the essence of disguise for benefit and hysteresis for effects.The hysteresis of different elements is not exactly the same,all of which holding the rapid impacts after the implementation is the technology and equipment safety.While the lag of laws and regulations and staff quality is stronger,which requires longer time to show the cumulative effect after the investment.The hysteresis of the macro impact factors of coal mine safety production is the coupling effect of the above factors.Because of its long cycle characteristics,the impact of safety performance during the early investment is small,only after long-term investment will be reflected.The hysteresis of the macro impact factors of coal mine safety production determines that safety is a regular basis and must maintain the stability and longevity of it.(4)The 22 associated factors about coal mine employees' unsafe behaviors were divided into individual,material,organizational and social categories after induction and screening.The quantitative analysis of coal mine employee unsafe behaviors' related factors was carried out by questionnaire.The DEMATEL method was used to analyze the acquired data deeply,and the influence degree,the being influenced degree,reason degree and the center degree of the employee's unsafe behaviors' associated elements were calculated.The results showed that the personal characteristics,government supervision and national legislation have the greatest impact,while safety attitude of the leader,working pressure,safety participation level of the employees,corporate supervision,staff awareness of the risk are the key factors,which are needed to be focused on during the development of safety plans and safety management work.Adopting ISM method has clarified the internal relations and hierarchical structure among the elements,revealed the channel from the deep association factors to the superficial ones.(5)The multi-level hierarchical model of the associative factors of unsafe behaviors of coal mine employees was established through the method of DEMATEL-ISM hybrid modelling,which reflects the combination characteristics,structural features,action direction,action intensity and the relative importance of factors.According to the comprehensive model,all the associative factors were divided into five classes.By comparing the results of the two groups,it is found that the hierarchical structure of the two groups has both the similarity and the difference.The more relationship between the factors,the greater the complexity of the factors is.Associative and causal relationships exist not only in a single class,but also in different categories.Among them,the social safe environment is the deep reasons for the unsafe behaviors of the employees.The employee's social attributes and the organizational safe environment are the middle causes and also the intermediary factors of the upper and lower connectivity.The employee's physiological attributes and working surroundings safety factors are more affected by other elements,and those are directly related to unsafe behaviors.Multi-level hierarchical synthesis model of employee unsafe behaviors' related factors can help managers use system thinking to identify complex factors,taking into account the horizontal and structural characteristics of multiple factors,the direction of interaction among the factors and the relative importance of key factors at the same time.It takes advantages of structural and causal visualization graphical display,in order to provide communication tools for better understanding the complex problems we faced.(6)The macroscopic pre-control of risks for safety in coal mine production has characteristics of stages,time-space,association with external factors and durability.According to the macroscopic development rule and macroscopic factor model of safety in coal mine production,respectively from six aspects-coal industry structure,production mode,national legislation and supervision,employee safety quality,mechanized technology and equipment,safety management methods,the macroscopic pre-control mechanism of risks for safety in coal mine production is put forward.According to the analysis of the factors related to unsafe behavior of coal mine employees,active pre-control system for unsafe behavior of coal mine employees,giving full play to employees' initiative,is established,multi-level unsafe behavior of coal mine employees pre-control method is proposed,enterprise risks information collection and processing system and active unsafe behavior pre-control platform based on large data is designed,full time and space dynamic monitoring hidden risks within the enterprise system is implemented,the safety of each person's own,the environment,the used equipment,the person in contact is realized,in order to achieve all-factor safe,including the staff,to prevent coal mine accidents,to protect corporate property and personal safety.