Research On The Evolution Mechanism And Control Strategies Of Mass Incident Under Social Network Perspective

In the new normal,mass incident occurred frequently because a series of new problems and contradictions generated when China‘s entered into the critical period of economic transition and social transformation.The emergency management level of local governments have promoted clearly long-term efforts,however,there still exist many weak links in this area.The problems,such as deeply understanding the generation and evolution rules of mass incident and improve emergency managerial ability for mass incident,have become important parts in emergency management study areas.This article is based on the relative theories of the emergency management of unexpected events,value-added theory and trust theory.It introduces many theories and methods of replication system science,sociology,public administration and psychology.It applies grounded theory,structural equation,game theory and system dynamics.It combines theoretical analysis with empirical analysis.This paper,from a perspective of social network analysis,further studies the typical cases of mass incident in our country.Through summarizing influencing factors and evolution rules in the events,it builds evolution and influencing factors of the mass incident model,evolution mechanism model and situation game model,to deeply analyze the evolution mechanism and control measures of mass incident.(1)The social network characteristics of mass incident.This article starts with the main features of mass incident,and then selects some typical cases.The social network characteristics of mass incident,which prove the rationality of social network perspective have been analyzed on the basis of finiteness,expansivity and virtual-actual combination of evolution space,as well as the types of participation and elite relationships.The importance of social network as information,resource and relationship carrier in the event also has been confirmed preliminary.(2)The main influence factors of mass incident.It introduces grounded theory analytical theory to study the relative literatures,and extracts four main influence factors,such as: emotion changes,information diffusion,trust changes and the ability of experience.According to this,we design questionnaire,collect data and establish the structural equation,take main influence factors as the latent variable,and use the fifteen factors extracted from the grounded theory as the observational variable correspondingly.We analyze the impact of the observational variable on latent variable,to define the roles of the factors.(3)The system dynamics model and simulation of mass incident evolution.According to the foregoing analysis,this paper has more specific representation with regard to factors,analyzing the generation of the groups in social networks and their role in the network connection,by introducing variable such as government intervention.Based on the modeling program of complex system dynamics,we construct a SD model for the evolution of systems of mass incidents.The important factors grouped together to three subsystems including media environment regulation,crowd behavior evolution and government intervention,we establish the overall system dynamics model and have a clear interpretation of the mutual relationship between the factors.(4)The evolutionary game model and simulation of mass incident evolution.In the context of activist events,this paper constructs a tripartite game model about vulnerable groups,powerful groups and government on the basis of game theory methods,using protest cost,benefits,suppress cost and government to punish cost as variable.Based on the model established,we put forward nine kinds of assumptions,setting up four scenarios to establish evolutionary game model and setting the parameters from the perspective of dynamic evolution to simulate the evolution mechanims of mass incidents according to various tripartite strategy possibility by analyzing strategies selection between vulnerable groups and powerful groups in different situations.(5)The emergency management and control strategies of of mass incident.Combining with the reality of social development in our country,we focus on the basis of previous analysis about the evolution mechanims of mass incidents,and put forward the feed forward control,process control and restoration and reconstruction as the key areas.It emphasizes the government's public trust construction and social network function,according to the periodic characteristics of the group's emergency management,put forward the emergency management and the feasibility of the control strategies.