The Research Of Decision Theory And Method For Military Traffic And Transportation Security Based OnInformation System

With the rapid expanding of the CAPF's task and information technology, it has put forward higher requirements for the PAPF's military transportation guarantee capability. From the logistics modernization requirements, the traditional experience type security pattern obviously already can not adapt to the security demand under the condition of information. The informatization is the key factor of the modernization, the core of the informatization is the development and application of information system, the important quality sign of information system is the theoretical model and algorithm of "intelligent" level. Therefore, using modern traffic engineering theory to research the military transportation decision method and theory base on the information system, is a very important and basic problems, it is one of the hot issue of the theoretical research for military logistics also.This paper mainly studies the theory and method for military transportation guarantee capability. Aiming at the problem of intelligent bottleneck in information system design, combined with the actual of CAPF, the integrated military traffic and transportation guarantee system, the transport security demand, capacity allocation, auxiliary decision, support ability evaluation have been studed. The main work and innovative contributions are as follows:1. Expoundsed the situation of CAPF diversity task transportation security demand and the research decision theory; summarized the CAPF's troops command organization and plan management processes of highway, railway, waterway and air transport; analysisd three key problems existing in the horizontal mechanism, vertical management and business management information system; proposed the solutions and established the basic conception of the CAPF integration military transportation network system.2. Based on CAPF's transportation capacity structure, analyzed the basic law and main features of the capacity demand for maintenance stability, floods, freezing rain, snow, earthquake relief task; Established the forecasting model for military transportation guarantee capacity demand; Put forward the military traffic transport security expert system model; Designed case base of military transportation guarantee, reasoning algorithm based on CBR/AHP and verified with examples.3. In order to predict the time of highway transportation security troops, the attribute of the vehicle platoon were defined firstly, including type, speed and length; combined with the influence of road grad and vehicle platoon speed, the model of paths optimizing area traffic net was built; Based on the deficiency of the single vehicle ellipse and rectangle area partition, an area-layered paths optimizing algorithms for platoon vehicle was designed in consideration of the vehicle platoon length and carried on the simulation computation by the road traffic network. Analysised the operation technology environment of our country's railway and air transportation; Put forward the formula for forecasting the troops in two ways of maneuver time, discussed the advantages and disadvantages of using human and equipment separation mode to organize forces delivery; Analysised the classification and construction situation of our country highway, railway, waterway and air transport hub, Combined with situation of the armed forces security warehouse, Given the method to determine the number of distribution hub points; Established the military hub point positioning model and designed the positioning algorithm by MATLAB7.0; A calculation example is given and analysised.4. Based on application conditions and defects of Genetic algorithm and hill climbing algorithm, designed a hill climbing genetic algorithm; determined the risk function and value of the comprehensive attributes for decision making condition; established the military transportation decision model; designed a algorithm and gived an example.5. Established the motor transport guarantee ability evaluation model; designed Fuzzy AHP evaluation algorithm and gived an example; evaluated the ability of the troops cross mobile by rail and air transport way; it is mainly about the evaluation of dynamic forces transport guarantee ability; set up the evaluation project and content; proposed three index value assessment method and gived an calculation example.This text's research work and achievement, is not focusing on traditional theoretical innovation, but on the application theory and method innovation. It not only has the important theory significance and the important reference value in engineering application to the CAPF's information system construction, but also has the broad application prospect and the military, economic benefits. At the same time, the paper provides references for traffic engineering theory based on information system.