| Since the market reform and opening up in 1978,China's economic and social has got the sustained and rapid development,Both the rate of economic growth and the GDP growth range have achieved spectacular achievements in less than forty years.However,there is no denying that relying mainly on exports and investment to drive economic growth for a long time,ignoring the increase of the total and the level of consumption,which led to the share of consumption inGDP maintained a downward trend year by year.Among them,the household consumption rate had a more dramatic decline.Affected by the global financial crisis,China's export trade began to decline since 2008.Long-term high investment caused by structural imbalance and overcapacity problem also gradually appear,so transformation of development mode and improvement of the internal impetus driving economic growth becomes the only way for China's sustained economic development.Therefore,countries adopts a series of measures to stimulate consumption,such as cutting rates of interest,and encouraging personal credit consumption,etc.However,this still doesn't relieve weak trend of consumer spending.How to crack the plight of China's low consumption has become a hot spot of domestic economic research and policy concern.There are many kinds of factors,which affect the household consumption,since the China's falling consumption rate is accompanied by China's market-oriented reform and the rapid economic development,the study,to explain China's low level of consumption,is mostly focused on that economic development brings higher income,high rate of economic growth,or market-oriented reform causes a series of consumption environment changes.Such as the excessively rapid growth of income,a serious preferential policies of income distribution to the government and corporate sectors,the drop of the household section's income distribution proportion,increasing of the uncertainty caused by the reform,income distribution gap,imperfect consumer finance market,etc.These factors are improved in recent years,however,the household consumption situation is not optimistic,so we have to seek other influential factors of household consumption.The fact is that not allow to ignore is that during the period of China's consumption rate is drop,China's population age structure are also changing significantly.In the development of social economy in China,an important characteristic is its rapid demographic transition.Before 1975,the proportion of children from 0 to 14 age accounted for more than 40%,our country had a typical light population structure:the birth rate was in a high level.About in 1980,our country began to strictly implement the family planning policy,which due to the rapid drop of the birth rate,and the proportion of children quickly dropped to below 40%.With increasing labor population,the demographic dividend appeared gradually,which laid a foundation for rapid economic development.However,compared tothe development course of Europe and the United States,the China's population structure change too fast,To 2000,proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and older has reached 7%,which marked the aging of population age structure.Through less than 30 years,our country is from the light population structure to the adult population structure,and then to aging population structure.At the same time,as people born in the year of the baby boom began to step into the aging stage,the acceleration of population aging is the main trend of the current population age structure.Under the condition of the weak economic foundation,it appears the phenomenon of "not rich first old".Therefore,the Population age structure influence on the household consumption is in line with the traditional theory,with some Chinese characteristics.The evolution of China's population structure is the important factors influencing the household consumption?What effect the current aging population is on consumption?This article files the related theory and literature of the effect of the population age structure on the household consumption,on the basis of mastering the population age structure,the current situation and the changes of household consumption in our country,to analyze the influence of population age structure to the household consumption from macro and micro angles.In the aspect of theory,firstly,this article,on the basis of existing research,embeds two factors of intergenerational wealth transfer and bequest motive to construct a suitable framework which is used to analyze the influence of China's population age structure on the ratio of consumption.Secondly,from the family level,the consumption of children and the elderly can be divided into independent consumption and derived consumption,according to the elastic,to analyze the household consumption differences of "respect for the elderly"and "taking care of the children".Thirdly,the paper adds the population age structure into the analysis framework of the precautionary savings theory,Respectively from two kinds of motivation,the "lack of patience" and "cautious",to analyze the influence of population age structure on the target of family wealth accumulation,From various angles in this paper,the paper does empirical test of the relationship between the households consumption and the population age structure.In the aspects of measurement method,this paper uses OLS,FGLS,GMM,quantile regression,grouping regression,and other measurement methods.The full text is divided into eight chapters.Chapter 1 is introduction;Chapter 2 is theoretical foundation and literature review;Chapter 3 is the population age structure,the analysis of the change of household consumption and present situation;Chapter 4 is the empirical test,analyzing the effect of the population age structure on the ratio of consumption;Chapter 5 analyzes family consumption sources and difference between "respect for the elderly" and "taking care of children".Chapter 6 studies of the effect of population age structure to family precautionary savings;Chapter 7 discusses population aging influence on consumer industries;Chapter 8 is conclusion and policy recommendations.Overall,the main conclusions and is as follows:First,Chinese household consumption behavior is not completely in line with the traditional life cycle theory,Children's population has a positive effect on the ratio of consumption,this is consistent with the life cycle theory.Under the influence of intergenerational wealth transfer and bequest motive,elderly population proportion does not conform to the reproductive cycle theory.Combining the reality of China,children's fall in the dependency ratio is the important reason for the declining of Chinese household consumption rate in recent years.In as Chinese people have strong family values,In contrast to the life cycle theory,the proportion of elderly people's rising can't make the ratio of consumption rise,on the contrary,it constitutes another factors explain the fall of the ratio of consumption.The main reason is the intergenerational wealth transfer and huge bequest motive function,the bequest motives make all the elderly will not consume their own wealth,but they choose to leave most of the wealth to future generations.So the consumption tendency of the elderly is low.When the household spending is limited,familiesprefer to give the limited resources to children,so the elderly consumer is in control.When the family income level is low,consideration can't be given to both children's consumption and the elder's consumption at the same time.Because Children are seen as the future of the family,the spending on the children,especially education spending,is seen as investment,the family will give preference to the consumption of the children,Sacrifice the consumption of the old man,showing the inequality.When the family is very rich,the same consideration can be given to both children's consumption and the elder's consumption at the same time,even more spending given to the elderly.Besides,the family' willingness for "respecting the elderly" to spend is common,both the high income families and the families in eastern developed regions,or urban family,it is more equal in consumption for the children and the elderly.Only when there is family income or other restrictions,the family will only show the importance to children's consumption and despise the old people's consumption.Thirdly,the number of children and the elderly in the family number affects family wealth accumulation,by influencing the family "lack of patience" and"precautionary motivation",Overall,the influence of the number of children on the"family impatient" is greater than the "precautionarymotivation",having negative effect on the family wealth goals.The reason is that their children are seen as investment for the future of their families,and the expense in children substitutes for the savings.However,under the current condition of incomplete social security,the elder's number has uncertainty association with the future expenditure,Therefore,the root reason for the insufficient consumption of the elderly is the current "not rich first old" special phenomenon.Besides,no matter how rich the family is,the number of children and the family wealth accumulation have the substitution effect on each other.Only family wealth reaches a certain degree,the old man quantity will affect wealth accumulation ability,with the improvement of household wealth.The elder has a more positive effect on the wealth accumulation.Policy implications of this paper are as follows:The adjustment of economic structure should be combined with China's population age structure change trend.On the one hand,to prevent the resource waste,such as education spending,caused by the children's population decline.Surplus resources should gradually pull away from the children's industry.On the other hand,we should increase the public financial investment,conforming to the trend of population aging,to the elderly departments to foster healthy,active aged industry and market.Fully tap the consumption potential of the elderly,ensuring their happiness at the same time,improve consumer's contribution to the economic growth.In response to the economic and social problem caused by the population age structure changes,we should fully consider China's special national conditions,neither keeping craps nor copying the western experience without considering China's economic realities.We should combine the advanced western social endowment system with Chinese traditional family pension mode.This not only can protect the elder's happiness in the autumn of their life,improving household living standards and promoting thesocial stability and prosperity,but also can solve the pension problem,release the pension savings and promote consumption,fuel economic growth,forming the good interaction of old-age security and the economic development.Advocate the correct consumption view on "respecting the elderly" and "taking care of the young".Combined with social phenomenon it can be found that low income families tend to be more eager to the success of the next generation,so too much resource will be used for the children,which can cause resource waste and may cause excessive indulgence of their children,influencing the development of children.Giving proper importance to the elderly in the family can avoid the above problems,and can significantly improve the old man's situation,making the elderly,who contribute a lot to society and family,be happier.Promote the development of the "silver industry".Theelderly should receive more attention,as they have made great contribution to the society and family,however,there is still a gap between "Respect for the elderly",and "taking care of the young".Therefore,we should not only encourage and ensure the preferential treatment of the elderly from the social public opinion and national laws and regulations,should support the development of "silver industry",the development of"the silver industry" should also be supported,enriching and developing the elderly consumer market to let the elderly feel the benefits from economic growth.It is not only beneficial to the real social fair,and population aging can fully release the elderly consumption potential in the serious situation,expanding consumption growth,promoting the steady economic growth in China. |
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