| Since 2012,China has entered into a new economic cycle, the economic growth rate is hovering around 7.5%, "steady growth, promoting reform" has become the most important work of the current government. China’s demographic transition process is "adult" and "healthy", which is consistent with the economic model of "high savings and high investment growth" in the same period, but now that China is experiencing a low birth rate, a low mortality rate and a low population growth rate. In 2014, the elderly dependency ratio reached 13.7%, the total dependency ratio has dropped to 36.1%, the United Nations latest forecast data shows that China’s elderly dependency ratio will reach 16.67% in 2030. With the change of population structure, China’s capital growth rate also decreased year by year, from 19.5% in 2007 to 14.8% in 2014. Therefore, in the context of the macroeconomic downturn, the slowdown in capital growth, the increase of population aging, and the continuous reduction of children’s dependency ratio, this paper aims to conduct a research on the effects of population structure on capital accumulation and its conduction mechanism.Firstly, this paper systematically combs the relevant literature on population structure, saving and capital accumulation, which includes the influence of population structure on savings, the relationship of savings and investment, and the influence of population structure on capital. It is concluded that there are many theories refer to the relationship between population structure and the accumulation of capital, but they are lack of empirical analysis of the relationship between population structure and capital accumulation or derivation of its conduction mechanism. Although there are a lot of literatures on population structure and saving, but because of the differences in sample interval and research method, the conclusions of the study are inconsistent.In the part of the theory, firstly, we review the classical life cycle theory, and find that there is a negative relationship between the population dependency ratio and the savings in the life cycle theory. Secondly, based on the Overlapping Generation Model, the life cycle theory of two stages expanded into three stages, introduce the elderly dependency ratio and the juvenile dependency ratio at the same time, and the population structure and capital accumulation linked by using the perpetual inventory method. Finally, take the use of numerical simulation to describe the relationship between population structure and capital accumulation. The results show that there is a negative effect between the capital accumulation and the children’s dependency ratio, and a positive relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and the capital accumulation.Empirical test part based on the theory of the dynamic panel measurement model, use the GMM estimation method to study the impact of population structure on capital accumulation, and the feasibility of its savings transmission mechanism, and the robustness of the threshold effect test. The results show that: the elderly dependency ratio has a threshold value: 0.139, the ageing is not conducive to capital accumulation, moderate population dependency ratio is more conducive to capital accumulation in the long-term. The elderly dependency ratio has a negative impact on capital accumulation in the western region, and children’s dependency ratio has a suppression of production on capital accumulation, which is more obvious in the west.Finally, according to the analysis of the structure, we give some corresponding policy recommendations. Moderate liberalization of fertility policy, improve the birth rate, increase the proportion of labor, to prevent aging. Improve the labor market system, and promote the free flow of labor. Strengthen human capital investment, improve the overall quality of the population. Strengthen economic restructuring, to achieve industrial coordination and interaction. |
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