| Food is essential for every nation and this is especially true for China. With the world's largest population and second largest economy, China is facing increasingly severe food security challenges. Given the low level of per capital arable land, large population and food consumption, the Chinese government attaches great importance to balancing domestic grain supply and demand by cautiously using international trade to adjust our own shortage and surplus. Against the backdrop of economic globalization, grain import and export has an increasingly important role to play in maintaining domestic grain supply and demand balance and in the economic and social development of China. As China's national economy grows bigger, the grain market is facing an increasingly complicated situation where changes in grain import and export may exert significant influence on national food security.Domestically, China's industrialization and urbanization continue to occupy more arable land to a degree that can no longer be ignored, threatening the foundation of grain production. On the other hand, rapid growth of residents' income drives up food demand and creates tremendous pressure on domestic supply. China is witnessing historic changes in its grain import and export sector. Recent years has seen China become a net importer of some major grain varieties and the import volume tend to expand in the future. The production cost continues to rise, and so do the domestic economy, people's income and the volume of grain for feed and industrial use. In addition, the exchange rates variations also contribute to the higher domestic grain price than that in the international market, with the gap still becoming wider. China's grain self-sufficiency rate hit the new low which imposes severe challenges on food security. Limited agricultural resources cannot satisfy the increasing consumption demand but force us to import to fulfill the demand gap. Grain import has already exerted serious impact on domestic market.Internationally, mounting instability, fluctuation amplitude and frequency in global grain market are demonstrated by the unstable export volume of major producers over the years. Many countries have strengthened government intervention in grain trade to secure their own food supply, which has exacerbated the instability in the global market. Moreover, some major exporters continued to spare no effort in developing bio-energy with maize and soybean which will also deeply influence the international market while posing potential threat on grain import in China.As grain supply both at home and aboard becomes more unstable, China's grain security is facing imminent challenges including constantly expanding import and increasing dependence on international market. As a result, an in-depth, systematic and comprehensive research on grain import and export is in urgent need to accurately understand the domestic supply and demand status, and the general condition of global food production and trade. This dissertation aims to sort out the main factors affecting grain import and export, analyze our strength in the international grain market and long-term development trend of grain import and export and discuss the pros and cons of current policies and measures concerning grain import and export so as to put forward suggesting on improving the grain import and export policies, properly adjusting grain trade, balancing domestic supply and demand and maintaining national grain security. Therefore, research on grain import and export in China is therefore of both theoretical and practical significance. Since grain trade has such particular characteristics as being both competitive and monopolistic in nature, highly intervened by government and politically sensitive. Systemic analysis on international grain trade will be constructive in amending and improving the international trade theories.This dissertation adopted systemic methods to make sure the research is thorough, relevant and comprehensive. Both static and dynamic analysis was used to focus on the process and trend. Empirical analysis and normative analysis were combined to ensure objectivity. Therefore, systematic study is conducted on grain import and export in China.The research design is as follows:first, introduce the basic theories on international trade to make sure this research is based on solid theoretical foundation; secondly, review the history of grain import and export in China to provide reference for future proposals on improving international grain trade policies and strategies; thirdly, analyze the factors affecting grain import and export so as to understand of the future trends of grain trade in China; fourthly, study the global grain trade status and the relevant polices of major economies to obtain international perspectives for future policy adjustments; finally, put forward suggestions on international grain trade policies and strategies for China.This dissertation consists of seven chapters.1. Chapter 2 is devoted to the theoretical foundation for grain import and export. International grain trade involves a wide range of areas requiring the theoretical support from international trade, agricultural economics and development economics. This part therefore introduced some general principles of these 3 theories that concerning grain import and export, their application in grain trade, and the characteristics of grain trade. Classic international trade theory, neoclassic international trade theory and the New Trade Theory are introduced from the development perspective, with the focus on protecting grain sector to study the significance, characteristics, determinants of grain competitiveness and revelations on grain trade. The author believes that international grain trade is an important part of national trade strategies in reducing hunger and satisfying the basic needs of humanity, increasing income and employment, balancing grain supply and demand and stabilizing market, using comparative advantages to promote domestic benefits and welfare. Grain trade is of great significance to both developing and developed countries with such characteristics as being seasonal with volatile prices, highly regional and concentrated with relatively consistent destinations. In addition, grain trade is usually large-scaled with low value yet high cost, the market competition usually insufficient and mixed with intensive political and diplomatic implications. The factors deciding a nation's grain competitiveness are endowment of natural resources, technological level, grain sector structure and varieties, development level of relevant supporting industries and government action. The paper also discussed the necessity and importance of national grain supportive and protective policies in international trade.2. Chapter 3 examines the history of grain trade policies in China by analyzing the institutional and policy transformation and volume changes of China's grain trade over the years to clearly understand the current status of grain import and export in China. Grain trade in China underwent 3 phases of liberal grain trade, strictly planned grain trade and moderately regulated grain trade after China's entry of WTO. Each phase has its particular historical background involved with economic, political and war-related factors. The review of these 3 phases will provide historical references for improving our trade policies.3. Chapter 4 studies the main factors affecting grain import and export and the China's competitiveness in the international grain trade market. Grain import and export is a result of both imbalanced domestic supply and demand and government policies, thus this dissertation will focus on the influence of supply, demand and government policy on grain import and export. This research studies several factors having direct impact on grain supply and trade including occupation of arable land by industrialization and urbanization, yield increase, government policy and ago-ecology. China's national grain competitiveness is evaluated from various angles including comparison of grain production cost, price and quality at home and abroad, and operation scale analysis.4. Chapter 5 examines global grain production and trade status, and trade policies of some major economies to offer global perspectives on adjusting our own trade volume, structure and policies. The world grain production status and development trends are analyzed with the focus on wheat, paddy, maize, and soybean trade with the purpose of offering international background for researching domestic trade development. Grain trade policies in typical nations are studied including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and India (with agriculture conditions similar with China), the US, Canada, Australia, Brazil and Argentina (with distinctively different agricultural conditions from China), the EU (with relatively complete policy system), and emerging grain exporters of Russia and Ukraine. These countries are all close trading partners of China. They adopted different trade policies in accordance with their own natural and economic conditions, though similar policies can be found in countries with similar conditions. These policies with their advantages and disadvantages are all valuable experiences for China to draw upon when formulating our own policies. Meanwhile, trading policy implementation and adjustment of China's trading partners also has an impact on our grain import and export.5. Chapter 6 discussed how we should adjust China's current grain trade volume to optimize the trade structure. This part first talks about the relation between grain trade volume and national grain security. Statistics show that grain export in China has been decreasing over the years, which means we should pay more attention to grain import in the near future. The author insists that grain import volume be compatible with our national grain security strategies, the supply potential, consumption trends, and overall international trade volume. We can't pursue import scale at the expense of domestic market stability and the income of grain growers. Specific research is then conducted on optimizing trade and regional structure of major grain varieties like wheat and rice. The author considers it vital to strengthen grain trade and cooperation with African countries, discuss the possibility and potential for trade and cooperation with Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and make comprehensive analysis and judgment in terms of the cost, price and institution in international trade.6. Chapter 6 put forward suggestions on improving grain trade policies and strategies. First, we need to enhance domestic grain policies to consolidate grain production, improve eco-environment to provide sustainable grain development environment, intensify support for grain production and strengthen protection of existing arable land, promote grain technology development by increasing subsidy amount and scale, improve the grain reserve system to cushion the impact of grain import and export, and speed up grain distribution system development to establish a stable, orderly and highly efficient market. Second, we should expand investment outside China to ensure a stable domestic supply channel, take advantage of current supportive policies and resources, research on the political environment, laws and policies on farmland and agriculture of the investment destinations to avoid irrational decisions, properly guide the public opinions to build a healthy image, and improve the platform for private investment to go global. Third, we should improve the specific measures of our grain trade policies such as implementing defensive grain trade strategies to strengthen support and protection of the trade policies, protecting domestic grain market in accordance with the WTO rules, deepening reform to build a better international grain trade management system, establishing long-term and steady grain trade partnerships, optimizing regional structure of import, fostering large grain trade groups to enhance our international competitiveness, improving trade information service, enhancing intergovernmental relations with major grain producers, and giving full play to the role of non-governmental organizations in promoting grain trade. |
PDF Full Text Request