Study On The Scale And Structure Of Chinese Grain Import

In recent years, it greatly attracts the attention of scholars home and abroad that China’s grain import has been rapidly growing. Scholars and policy makers home and abroad are widely discussing about the growth trend of Chinese total grain trade scale, the rationality of its trade structure, its dependence on international grain markets, the grain security situation and other related theoretical and political issues, also there already existing abundant research achievements. However, there are relatively few achievements especially on empirical study of Chinese grain import from the angle of change of grain supply and demand home and abroad. Starting with the review and evolution development of the basic trade theory, based on the "scale-structure-supply and demand" approach, combining normative analysis and positive analysis, the paper firstly analyzes the development and dynamic characteristics of Chinese grain trade, so as to reveal problems currently existing in the scale and structure of Chinese grain trade. On this basis, using the Cointegration and Granger test, the Trade Intensity Index and Trade Complementarity Index, the Constant Market Share model (CMS), etc., it empirically tests the relationships between the changes of grain supply and demand home and abroad and the changes of Chinese grain import, and between the changes of Chinese grain import and its grain security state. Based on the conclusion of close ties between the changes of grain supply and demand home and abroad and the changes of Chinese grain import, according to grain security strategy of "focusing on ourselves, relying on domestic, importing moderately, technological support", taking structural optimizing of grain import as the main line, the paper proposes some suggestions to motivate the steady development of Chinese grain import, not only conforming to Chinese national condition but also making full play of grain import’s regulating role to domestic grain security.The paper is divided into nine chapters. The first two chapters are normative analysis and is the theoretical basis of this paper. The first chapter is the introduction. On the basis of research background, purpose and significance of Chinese grain import, it summarizes and evaluates the related researches on domestic and international grain trade, and puts forward its basic study thought. According to the basic theory of trade, the second chapter analyzes the influence mechanism of changes in supply and demand to Chinese grain import, sets out the research path of "scale-structure-supply and demand" on Chinese grain import, and normatively analyzes its scientificity and feasibility.From the third to the eighth chapter, they are the core parts of this paper, mainly with the empirical analysis and normative analysis for the summary of conclusions of empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)China’s grain trade is facing problems like declining international competitiveness of grain products, increasing of dependence on foreign trade, rising of trade risk resulting from unreasonable trade structure, etc.;(2)There is a one-way causal relationship between Chinese grain production and demand domestically and grain import, that is the grain production and demand in China will impact the grain import, but the impact of grain import to grain production and demand is not significant;(3)The changes of Chinese grain import shows the significant consistency with the changes of world grain export, and Chinese grain import highly depend on and has strong trade complementarity with the major grain exporting countries;(4)According to CMS analysis, gravitational effect is the most significant factors effecting the changes in Chinese grain import, but the effects of market structure and product structure are weak. The former result indicates that the gap between grain supply and demand domestically is an important factor for the expansion of Chinese grain import, while the latter shows that the market and product structure of grain import are not very reasonable;(5)By the analysis of principal components, grain import is an important regulatory factors of grain security. And at present, the collected data also shows that, the scale of Chinese grain imports is highly positively correlated to its grain security scores, demonstrading that the current stage of Chinese grain import has important role in the regulation of grain safety;(6)To optimize Chinese food import trade situation, we could consider the combination of measures in three aspects:on scale, just control the net grain import rate below20%; on product structure, moderately increase import of cereals and gradually decline the import of soybean; on market structure, appropriately increase grain import from South America, Australia and Russia, ASEAN and other neighboring countries.The ninth chapter is the last part of the paper. Based on the summary of the above conclusions, it puts forward some suggestions for motivating steady development of Chinese grain import from the aspects of strengthening macroeconomic management in grain import, stabilizing the sources of grain import, optimizing the species composition of grain import, improving the policy on technical measures of grain import. There are three innovation points in the paper:Firstly, based on the factors of supply and demand home and abroad, the paper analyzes the related degree between them and Chiness grain import, with side perspective, comprehensive contents and correct conclusions; Secondly, the paper uses the CMS model to analyze Chinese grain import changes for the first time, and it individually analyzes the factors with the total amount model, the market division and product classification model, reflecting each factoers influences more reasonably; Thirdly, the paper empicically tests the relevance between Chinese grain import and Chinese grain safty, with clear conclusion and targeted countermeasures.