| Regional land use change is the important research field of geography,domestic and foreign scholars mainly analyze natural,social,economic driving mechanism of regional land use change on macro scale for a long time,but rarely research land use change and its driving mechanism on microcosmic(farmer)scale.Many factors lead to the change of land use,such as farmer's land use,agricultural land transfer,farmland investment decision,farmer's planting structure adjustment and other decision-making behavior of land use,in which farmer is the important one of economic entities,therefore the analysis of driving force of land use change should include the macro and micro factors.Taking Kurla as an example,by analyzing recent 20 years' land use/cover change of the area,studying natural conditions,social economic conditions and policy research foundation of area,this paper analyzes the effects of macro factors on the land use change;from microcosmic respect,basing on understanding the behavior of farmers,discusses the decision-making behavior of farmers planting and the rural land transfer decision-making behavior and the relationship between land use change and its impact on land use change by the model.According to the location of township of Kurla city,condition of water resources,per capita land area as well as the planting structure,the author selects six villages and towns for householder survey,receiving a total of 454 valid questionnaire;and obtained the relative data of farmers planting decision-making behavior and the farmland transfer behavior,and using the quantitative analysis method to analyze the farmers' land use decision-making behavior on land use and the influencing factors of its change in micro level.The full study mainly has the following aspects:The research of land use/cover change:According to the interpretation of remote sensing images separately in 1990,1998,2005,2010,this paper summarized the research of almost 21 years'(1990-2010)land use structure,each type of land use change process and characteristics.Since 1990 year,area of farmland,garden,construction land and water of Kurla city is on the rise,in which growth rate of garden land and construction land the average annual is larger,garden land increased from 6.35%to16.94%,increased by 10.59%,the construction land increased 10.85%,farmland increased by 5.11%,with minimum annual growth rate of waters,during the study period increased by only 0.81%;20years'area of other land declined,the proportion decreased from 69.62%to 42.26%,decreased by 27.36%.According to land use transfer of the study area,other land is complementary sources of farmland,garden is increased,and because of the exploitation of other land and conversion of cultivated land and garden land and other land is a major source of growth of construction land.The results show that the land use/cover change has the following three features:farmland,garden,construction land increased at the same time,other land reduce sharply,decreasing trends of other land are different from that in other areas of the country;during 1999-2005 years,the area of every land type changed obviously,because of the execution of soil and water development policy and the city expansion;land use structure in the middle area changed obviously,and construction land expanded southeast from city center,garden occupies the arable land and other land,cultivated land expanded north and southeast along the Peacock River.Analysis shows that the key factor that influences the Kurla's land use pattern is natural condition,such as geographical location,topography,distribution of water resources,etc.In the north of Kurla city,there are vast high-quality pastures in HuoLa mountain,which is suitable for the development of animal husbandry;Southern and eastern part of the city lays desert-oasis plain which is composed by the Tarim River alluvial plain and the Peacock River Delta.With better soil texture,abundant water resources,exuberant vegetation,the villages and towns in the south of the plain,such as Awati and Pratt&Whitney township,have developed into high quality cotton planting base of Kurla city,and even the whole Xinjiang province.In the east of the plain located Shanghu town and Tirkeqi village.They have superior irrigation condition and has become Kurla's pear orchard development base.West of Kurla city,sand dunes and the gangde are widely distributed with poor terrain and ecological environment condition which would be gradually evolved into desert.The expanding high grade cotton base and excellent quality pear base have promoted Kurla's social and economic development to a certain degree.But at the same time,of the increasing construction land,cultivated land and garden has worsen the problems of soil-water inbalance and the ecological environment destruction.In view of the above reasons,Kurla city forbids excessive water exploitation,adjusts agricultural structure,returns the grain plots into forest,aiming at improving the ecological environment.Study shows that the related policies has had large effect on Kurla's land use change.Influence of the Land planting decision-making on land use changes:First,by analysis of the driving force of cropping behavior in the study area,a correlation analysis is made of the ratio between cotton,pear,vegetable cultivation area per year and land area the land resource,market price,location,state and local policy,irrigation works condition in 20 indicators of five categories,principal component analysis and driving force analysis are made,the results show that the crop price,location,area of land of average per capita and state and local policy factor are the main social economic factors influencing planting structure change,Then using the two Logistic regression model and multinomial Logistic model,the driving forces in the farmer level of land use change were analyzed.Two Logistic model running results show that:the farmer householders' age,possessive quantity of farmland area,block number,income proportion of cultivate industry,distance from city center,allowance by retreating cultivated land to forest have significant relationship with land use change.Multinomial Logistic model the results showed that:possessive quantity of farmland area,block number,investment of agriculture per area,irrigation frequency influence conversation from the cultivated land to garden land greatly;conversation from garden to construction land is mainly affected by distance from city center;possessive quantity of farmland area,distance from city center,irrigation frequency have great effect on conversation from other land into arable land.The rural land transfer decision-making behavior:through statistical analysis and two Logistic model,the author analysis the rural land transfer(inflow and outflow)decision-making behavior.The factors impacting inflow of farmland in Kurla city include the total householder population,agricultural labor number,block number,non agricultural population and farmland area,farmland area has negative impact on inflow of farmland;householder's age,total population,agricultural labor,income proportion of cultivate industry,have farmland area and have significant relationship with outflow of farmland,and the total householder population,agricultural labor number and planting income proportion have negative effect on outflow of farmland. |
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