The Research On The Effect Of China's Main Grain Subsidies Policy And Its Adjustment And Improvement

China has implemented a series of food subsidies policy Since 2004,which has played an important role in increasing grain production and farmers' income.But recently,great changes have taken place for the domestic and foreign environment.It makes the efficiency of food subsidies policy begin to decline as a great shock to China's grain production.Under the new national food security strategy and the framework of WTO agricultural agreement,it is a major problem that how to adjust the existing grain subsidy policy to increase the policy efficiency,and keep the security of the national food safety.The research is based on the method of theoretical analysis,normative analysis and empirical analysis and the empirical analysis is the main method.It shows the mechanism of food subsidies policy effect based on the perspective of yellow box subsidies,and ensure a yellow box support level and trace allows space in our country.Through the empirical analysis on its self-sufficiency rate of China's grain and the effect of food subsidies policy,an objective evaluation is given.In addition,it analyses the main differentiation trend of grain production,grain demand status and the cordon of self-sufficiency,and the impact on food industry,grain subsidies policy effectiveness of the changing external environment.In the end,some adjustment and improvement strategies are put forward with drawing lessons from international experience.The main research conclusions are as follows:1.The yellow box support levels of specific agricultural product in our country is generally on the rise since 2004.Part of the food product yellow box support level has close to trace allows level.The remaining space is bigger although the yellow box support levels of specific agricultural products has been on the rise.2.Theoretical analysis showed that the minimum purchase price policy for grain and reserve policy for grain have a role in rising food prices and promoting grain production.However,when the minimum purchase price or the reserve price is hig her than the market price,market prices are distorted.As a result,it is difficult t o reflect the change of supply and demand,so it lose the function of guiding the optimal allocation of resources.When the grain price in the international market,es pecially the import price is higher than the minimum purchase price or reserve pric e will bring significant negative effects.And these effects are expressed in the incr ease of imports,the increase of warehousing costs,the raise of the yellow box sub sidy level and the bad impact on downstream production.The empirical analysis ha s proved this conclusion.Theoretical analysis shows that the food direct subsidy whi ch decoupled with food production has little positive impact on the output of the f ood.But it can be used as a transitional policy in the stage of the policy adjustme nts.The food direct subsidy which tied in food production has some positive impact on the output of the food.At relative low income level,it can increase the grain o utput for the subsistence peasant.However,as the increasing of the incomes the p olicy effect will decline.The seed subsidies which lined with the use of improved seed have the same policy effect with the seed subsidies which not lined with the use of improved seed,and the effect of the linked one is relatively obvious.The agricultural and general direct subsidies are similar with the seed subsidies,but theeffect is much weaker.Target price subsidies has a positive effect to the food outp ut and a negative effect to the food price.Target price subsidies has little impact on the distortion of the market price in comparison with the minimum purchase pri ce and the reserve price.And the effect of the machinery purchase subsidy is signifi cant as compared with those subsidy policy.Empirical analysis shows that grain out put has the strongest correlation with the seed subsidies,in declining order,were th e machinery purchase subsidy,agricultural and general direct subsidies,direct subsidies.Meanwhile,after machinery purchase subsidy,the strongest correlation with rural per capital net income are the farm machinery purchase subsidy,agricultural and general di rect subsidies,seed subsidies,direct subsidies.Overall,food subsidy policy has strong positive correlation relationship with food output and rural per capital net income,And farmers are quite satisfied with food subsidies policy.3.The differentiation of production of the main food of major grain producing areas is taking place:Non-Subsistence grain growers showed a sharp upward trend;Self-sufficient grain growers showed a slight downward trend,but they are still a major force in food production;Small-scale farmers have a substantial decline;Large-scale grain growers have a rapid rise,although the proportion is not high,its grain output accounts for more than12% of the country's total grain output;Large-scale farmers are further differentiated into new food production and management organizations;Self-sufficient grain growers are insensitive to market and policy information,they are the backbone of stabilizing the grain production;New food production business entities are responsive to market and policy information,they are the important power of commodity grain supply,and the important object of future food subsidies policy.4.Since 2010,China's grain self-sufficiency rate has been above 90%,it is about 92%in 2015,cereals self-sufficiency rate is 111.56 %,and the level of food security is high.In the next 10 years,the average annual growth rate of China's total grain consumption is about 0.97%,and rations average annual growth rate is 0.25%;the average annual growth rate of feed grain and industrial grain consumption are 1.55% and 1.70% respectively;Grain consumption structure: food rations consumption accounts for about 40%,feed consumption accounts for about 30%,industrial consumption accounts for about 25%,other consumption accounts for about 5%;Composition of the rations: the three largest grain accounted for 90%(of which rice and wheat accounted for 87%),soybean accounted for 4%,other food accounted for 6%.5.According to the different degree of “rigidity”,the rigid demand for food can be divided into first ? second ? third three levels,Based on this,we could measure grain self-sufficiency rate by the bottom line and the warning line,which have been about 56%and 85% respectively in China.6.Environmental change is shocking our grain industrial,for instance,the speed of cultivated land transfer has accelerated,the efficiency of food and cash crops cultivation has unbalanced,the development of industrialization and urbanization,the changes of exchange rates and international food prices.How to deal with these shocks must be considered when we perfect subsidy policy.The development of industrialization and urbanization,the changes of exchange rates and international food prices.How to dealwith these shocks must be considered when we perfect subsidy policy.7.The grain subsidy policy of major countries give us some inspiration: to make the grain subsidy policy goals clear,China should take grain security,especially food security as the primary objectives of subsidy policy;According to the changes of the environment to gradually adjust the policy of grain subsidies.To improve grain subsidy policy for partial defects of the policy,in order to improve the effectiveness of the policy.8.The adjustment of grain subsidy policy strategy in our country is: to change direct payments for smallholders as amber box subsidies to green box subsidies.the main role of the object of the direct payments policy is new body of food production and management,to set subsidy for new body of food production and management,to prepare to launch“Ration stabilization program”,to continue to improve the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy,to reduce the Price-supporting Policies gradually,to prepare to launch “food risk protection plan of new body of grain production and management in major grain-producing counties”,to control the total amount of subsidies within the trace level,and the adjustment of subsidy standard should be based on the distance to the grain self-sufficient warning line.