| Based upon the integration the knowledge, according to the structured planning framework of industry technology roadmapping, a new systematic analysis and research framework for planning and innovation management of industrial critical technology industries can be provided through the comprehensive and systematic analysis on external environment within the industry, the development goals of industry and industrial value chain system, as well as industrial technology systems. According to industrial technology roadmapping design requirement in complex and dynamic environment, there are three key issues of industrial technology roadmap to be concerned due to the high dynamism and complicacy of industry environment, and the arduous and risk of industrial technology innovation activities: Firstly, How to solve single linear prediction or only consider industrial development as one scenario during the analysis of the external and internal industry environment, which will result in industrial technology roadmap lack the necessary flexibility and applicability, and finally making it difficult to implement. Secondly, Industrial technology roadmapping has not proposed an unambiguous definition, a specifically defined standards, and a structural assessment process in identification of industrial critical technology. Thirdly, by combining what approaches and how to integrate this approaches can solve the problems: 1), the current selection method of industrial critical technology innovation model mainly rely on qualitative analysis of experts. 2), industrial critical technology innovation strategy are lack of quantitative analysis against complex and dynamic environment.Aiming at these three key issues, in the first place, this dissertation analyzed the current status of the study in technology roadmapping by bibliometric research. The next, a design method of scenario-based industrial technology roadmapping was proposed which combined scenario analysis and STEEP. Once more, an identification method in industrial technology roadmapping was proposed through a combination of value chain theory, IDEF0 model and entropy method. The last, a calculation model on the chosen of industrial critical technology was researched based on Bayesian Network and the theory of technology innovation. The main results as well as significant contributions of this dissertation are:(1) A design method that integrated scenario analysis in industrial technology roadmapping was proposedAiming at the issues that the current industrial technology roadmapping formulation process lacks flexibility and applicability, the dissertation summarized the currently issues existed in the combination of scenario analysis in technology roadmapping. At the first, after proposing a new definition and the connotation analysis on scenario analysis-based technology roadmapping, this dissertation try to answer the question that why and how to integrate the scenario analysis in designing technology roadmapping. Next, through the exploratory analysis about the applicability of the combination of scenario analysis in industrial technology roadmapping, a detailed research about the major tasks and support methods of scenario analysis in preparation stage, formulation phase, implementation and updating phase of industrial roadmapping were presented based on the construction of integration framework of scenario analysis and industrial technology roadmapping.(2) A systematic identification method which combines industrial technology road mapping, IDEF0 and entropy method was proposedBased on the theoretical exploration of value chain upgrade and the definition of key industrial technologies, this dissertation presents the evaluation standard of key industrial technologies. Considering the features of value chains and the interrelation between value chains, this dissertation provides the double-link identification method of key industrial technologies by combining the theoretical practice of industrial technology road mapping and IDEF0. To deal with the complexity and subjectivity of the evaluation process of key industrial technologies, the dissertation brings forward a calculation method which combines triangular fuzzy number and entropy method.(3) This dissertation presents Bayesian Network(BN) quantitative analysis in scenario analysis-based industrial technology roadmapping to supporting the selection of industrial critical technology innovation modelFirstly, this dissertation proposed a new definition and the connotation analysis on industrial critical technology innovation model in industrial technology roadmapping, and three models of industrial technology innovation were analyzed. Secondly, a topology model of scenario analysisbased industrial technology roadmapping was constructed, and through the DAG. It solves the issue that relation between cross-level random variables cannot be displayed in ITRM design process. It also uses the CPT to demonstrate multiple status and the uncertainty of the logical relation between multiple statuses in SITRM in order to enhance the robustness of SITRM design based on probability deduction methods of BN. Finally, this dissertation performed a quantitative analysis of the planning of industrial technology innovation model and innovation path. This dissertation verified its methods based on the case study of the Light Emitting Diode industry in Guangdong.Overall, this dissertation researched in industrial technology roadmapping with theories and practice, focusing on the research of how industrial technology roadmapping can supporti ng the identification of industrial critical technologies and selection approach of industrial critical technology innovation model. |
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