The Potential And Development Path Of Sequestering Carbon In China's Forest Sector

Economic growth has met the great demand of human society for material wealth, but also brought environmental degradation which epitomized by the global warming. Anthropogenic carbon emissions since the industrial revolution contributed to global warming. If we cannot effectively achieve 'Carbon Removal', the world would likely face significant crisis. Reducing industrial carbon emission and increasing carbon sink in forest ecosystems is two major 'Carbon Removal' approachs. However the forest carbon sequestration is more cost-effective. At the same time it generates multiple benefits, so that it is an essential strategy to confront climate change around the world. Nowadays China has become the world's largest carbon emitter. Reducing carbon emissions and improve the ecological environment is crucial issues for sustainable development. Forest carbon sequestration as a key strategy to mitigation of climate change in China has been incorporated into the national development planning which has been explicated in Chinese Voluntary Commitment to reduce the carbon emissions. Under the new normal of Chinese economy, these forest carbon sequestration plans could be achieved? What are the potential and challenges of sequestering carbon in China's forest ecosystems? What are the impacts on the role of the forest sector in global warming of new scenarios such as the adjustment of economic growth, carbon trading and forestry reforms? How to establishment the path to promote the carbon sequestering in China's forestry ecosystems? These are questions that need to be answered.In China's academic circles, the research on forestry carbon sequestration potential and related mechanism is still a new field. The dynamic and quantitative researchs based on the economic theory, combined with an interdisciplinary approach and taking into account the macro economic and social environment are especially lacking. This study based on economics theoretical framework, considering the important economic and social variables in reality, use econometric model, spatial partial equilibrium model and carbon sequestration model to analyze and project the potential of carbon sequestrating in China's forest sector, which has theoretical and realistic significance. In this study, specific research contents and conclusions are as follows.Firstly, theoretical research. This study discusses theoretically the economic attributes of forest carbon sequestration, the market failure on supply, and the relationship between economic growth and the utilization of forest resources. The main conclusions include forest carbon sequestration is a global public goods, and there are three main approachs to solve the supply problem which including market, government and self-governance approaches. Besides, the study also indicates forest ecosystems and society are coupled system with feedback loops, and resource utilization and management under certain socio-economic system has led to the change of forest resources stock.Secondly, the analysis on the forest resource status and the role of the forest sector in the carbon cycle of the world and China. The result shows the utilization and management determine the role of the forest sector in the carbon cycle. It also demonstrates that the dynamic of China's forest resources and forest carbon stock as an U-shaped curve with a turning point in the late of 1970s, which driving by the economic and institutional evolution. A panel data model of China's provinces in 2003-2013 hads was used to analyse the relationship between forest stock and socio-economic variables. The results of fixed effects shows that forest stock consumption and GDP per capita have a EKC relationship without considering other factors in the case; the low quality of forest is the main obstruction for carbon sequestration potential in China forest sector; these is a harmonious and symbiotic relationship between forestry and agriculture; and natural Forest Protection Project has increased forest carbon stock significantly.Thirdly, the explanation of the method to project the forest carbon stocks in future. It clarifies the assumptions, structure, basic principles and data sources for the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) at first; then explained an IPCC forest carbon model including the definition, calculation method and parameter settings which have been used in this paper. The basic logic of this research method include three steps,which are:1) setting exogenous variables firstly; 2) then using GFPM model to simulate forest stock dynamic change under such exogenous shocks; 3) finally Using the IPCC model to estimate forest carbon stock.Fourly, the projection of carbon sequestration potential in China's forest ecosystems during 2015 to 2030. It defined three groups of major and most critical scenarios for China's forestry development, which including "Economic Growth Adjustment", "Carbon Emission Trading", and "Forestry Reform". Then projected forest carbon stock under each scenario. The main conclusions include:1) Chinese forest carbon sequestration plan can be completed on schedule; 2) the contribution rate of forest carbon sinks to carbon emission reduction targets in 2030 is approximately 4.53%; 3)China's net forest carbon sinks is 124.97-142.43TgC/a in 2015-2030; 4) Chinese forest biomass carbon stocks are expected to 8.64-9.13PgC in 2030. The results also imply that China has the potential for development of forestry carbon sinks, but the main constraint is the low level of forest stock on per unit area. Modest reduction in economic growth rate helps to reduce the demand and consumption of timber resources, thus contributing to increasing the supply of forest carbon sequestration services. Carbon price is a positive impact on the supply of forest carbon sinks, but the size of this effect is dependent on the price elasticity of supply of forest carbon sinks. In the long run, stop commercial logging of natural forests will not have a significant impact on domestic timber production, because of the substitution effect of plantation timber production to native forests, which is a Pareto improvement.Fifthly, the proposal for the policy approaches to promote carbon sequestration in China's forestry sector. The study clarifies the principal forest carbon sequestration strategy, and analyses the status and constraints of carbon markets and the ecological compensation program. It also analysis explicit forest carbon sink strategies for diverse area in China, and proposes a whole institutional framework.In a word, the basic proposition of this thesis is that the forest ecosystem and the social system are coupled. The output of the social-ecological system is depend on interaction between the subsystems, the level and the variables inside the system. The social variables such as economic growth, institutional change are inputs into the system, and the dynamic change of forest ecosystem services supply is the output. And such input-output relationship is circulation feedback loop. We must realize the virtuous cycle between such input and output as mentioned through institutional innovation.The innovation of this paper includes the following aspects:First, the innovation of the research content. Quantitative studies of forest carbon sequestration in China are focus on natural science. Because of the differences of subject attributes, the related studies are usually lacking in the consideration of economic and social variables. In fact, resource utilization subjected to economic and social environment is the determinant of the role of forest ecosytems in carbon cycle. These socioeconomic variables include not only the changes in demand and preference caused by economic growth, the role of price mechanism to forest resources allocation, and the change of forest management mode in the process of climate change, but also the impact of open economy, such as the division of labor and forest resources in the global economic integration. These important factors that affect the potential of forest carbon sequestration in China were neglected in the past studies, but also extremely important. Therefore, this study focused on the effects of exogenous variables on the dynamic changes of forest resources and forestry carbon sequestration potential in China is the innovation of study content.Second, innovation in the perspective of research. Whether from the world, or from China, human disturbances which decide by social and economic development and institutional change are the key factors to determinate the role of forest ecosystem in the carbon cycle. Economic, social, environmental, and other variables or constraints on forestry activities affect the forestry activities and the potential of carbon sequestration of forest ecosystem. There are multiple interactions and cycle of feedbacks between these variables. Therefore, the research angle of view can not only be limited to an one-way causal link, but from the perspective of economic and social development and forest ecosystem coupling to explain "why is this?", as well as, "what would happen?". This is also the innovation of this study in the perspective of research.Third, possible innovation in research methods. The research of forest carbon sequestration potential, not only need to consider the biophysical attributes of forest ecosystems, but also to take into account the economic and social attributes, so it has the characteristics of cross discipline. This interdisciplinary study combines the forest carbon stock and flux estimation methods of natural subject with economics analytical framework, which has innovation in research methods.