The Development Modes And Regulation And Control Policies Of Urban Low-carbon Transport

With the high speed development of economy society in our country,urban transport demand is incessant expanding and total trip volumes of urban residents are promoting rapidly.At the same time,motor vehicle volumes,total motor vehicle trip volumes and motor vehicle trip proportion rise year by year due to the city residents’ requirement for the quality of trip,which led to the rapid growth of CO₂ emissions produced by the transport.At present,the department of transportation has become the second largest source of CO₂ emissions after industrial sector,and then the problem of low-carbon development need to be solved.To deepen the scientific understanding for construction rules of urban low-carbon transport system and provide the reference and the basis for the development of urban low-carbon transport,this thesis researched development mode and regulation policies of urban low-carbon transport from the perspective of system science and system engineering.In this thesis,the main research work and conclusions are as follows:（1）The thesis carried on the system analysis to the urban low-carbon transport system.Then,the contents,characteristics and system composition of urban low-carbon transport are analyzed.In addition,the issues and development target of low-carbon urban transport are discussed.What’s more,the urban transport development concept model is constructed.Finally,selection criteria of urban transport development model and urban low-carbon transport development path based on "three steps" strategy are given.（2）The thesis analyzed the connotation,characteristics and classification of urban environmental capacity and urban environmental carrying capacity after determining urban low-carbon transport development goals focus on the atmospheric pollution.Then,urban traffic atmospheric environmental capacity and carrying capacity are defined.Furthermore,their influence factors are discussed.Finally,urban transport development scale based on the atmospheric environmental capacity constraint and regulation policy for urban traffic atmospheric environment carrying capacity are investigated taking Tianjin as a case.It is concluded that the clean vehicles strategy usually should be enforced first,then the mobility management strategy was carried out in practice.（3）The thesis investigated energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of urban passenger transport and freight transport in the different urban transport development modes,indicating that the passenger transport will be the main contradiction of urban transport energy consumption and carbon emissions in the future.Then,urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO₂ emissions simulation model which can reflect the influence of individual transport choice is built using system dynamics.In addition,the effects of different regulatory policies for energy conservation and emissions reduction are researched taking Beijing as a case.What’s more,the priorities of the different energy conservation and emissions reduction regulation policies are determined.Finally,the thesis proved that technological and regulatory solutions should be implemented first followed by economic ones in order to achieve the urban passenger transport low-carbon development mode in a quantitative way.