Research On The Effect Of Human Capital And Its Spatial Distribution On Industrial Structure Upgrading In China

The research of human capital pay more attention to the influence of human capital on economic growth,the relationship between human capital and industrial structure upgrading is rarely studied.However,as one of the important influence factors,human capital not only decide the speed of industrial structure upgrading,but also have important influence on the direction of industrial structure transformation.Therefore,we should further study the relationship between human capital and industrial structure upgrading.On the one hand,human capital will show obvious heterogeneity due to the difference of individual education level,skill acquisition and social status,etc.On the other hand,the human as a carrier of human capital,flow between different regions,will lead to the pattern of human capital spatial distribution change.Thus this paper studies the impact of China’s human capital and its spatial distribution on industrial structure upgrading from a multi-angle and systematic perspective.The main contents and related conclusions are as follows:(1)Firstly,this paper examines the impact of human capital accumulation and capital deepening on industrial structure upgrading from the perspective of total human capital.We discuss the mechanism of how human capital accumulation and capital deepening influence industrial structure upgrading by constructing a model of industrial structure change with two sectors,and further we also set a dynamic panel data model,and use the system GMM estimation method for empirical test.The results show that the accumulation of human capital and the capital deepening have a significant positive effect on industrial structure upgrading in China,and the effect of unit human capital accumulation is stronger than that of unit capital deepening.In addition,the industrial structure in last period and current period show a significant positive correlation,which indicates that the industrial structure upgrading has a obvious path dependence characteristic.We also find that the influence of capital deepening on industrial structure upgrading has a human capital threshold effect,when the human capital stock is less than or equal to 6.926,the marginal coefficient of capital deepening is 0.004;when the human capital stock exceeds the threshold,the capital deepening increase 1% will cause the industrial structure level enhance 0.007%.(2)In view of the contribution of different types human capital to industrial structure upgrading are different,this paper deduces the coupling process of heterogeneous human capital and industrial structure upgrading.Based on the gray system theory,the coupling degree model is used to measure the correlation degree and coupling degree between heterogeneous human capital system and industrial structure system in China.The results show that the influence of primary human capital on the primary industry was significantly stronger than the second and tertiary industry,intermediate human capital and advanced human capital have a greater impact on the second and tertiary industry.We also use the quantile regression model to study the dynamic evolution of the relationship between heterogeneous human capital and industrial structure upgrading.From the national level,the primary human capital can not promote industrial structure upgrading;the effect of intermediate human capital on industrial structure upgrading change greatly along with deepening of industrial structure adjustment;advanced human capital show a positive effect on industrial structure upgrading,and its marginal contribution is increasing.From the perspective of sub-regional level,intermediate human capital and advanced human capital are positively related to the level of industrial structure in the middle and eastern regions,and the positive effect of advanced human capital to industrial structure upgrading is stronger than the intermediate human capital,due to lacking of talents and improper distribution in western region,intermediate human capital and advanced human capital do not promote to the industrial structure upgrading obviously.(3)In this paper,the spatial factor is introduced into the research framework of industrial structure upgrading,the spatial lag model and spatial error model are constructed,and the relationship between human capital agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading is analyzed quantitatively,which reveals the internal mechanism of human capital agglomeration on the industrial structure upgrading.The results show that the industrial structure development in the surrounding areas can promote the adjustment of industrial structure in local region.Human capital agglomeration has a significant positive effect on regional industrial structure upgrading,but after considering the spatial effect,the contribution of human capital agglomeration has declined.In addition,the positive impact of human capital agglomeration on the industrial structure upgrading is escalating gradually.At present,China’s human capital agglomeration presents a distribution pattern degressive in sequence of east,middle and west.Human capital agglomeration significantly promotes industrial structure upgrading in the eastern region,has no significant effect on central region.The concentration of human capital in the western region is the lowest which show a significant inhibitory effect.Considering the level of economic development,the impact of human capital agglomeration on the industrial structure upgradeing is not simply linear relation,there may be non-linear characteristics.Thus this paper uses the panel smoothing transformation model,and takes the economic development level as the threshold variable,to test the nonlinear relation between human capital agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading.The results not only support the "U" type relationship of the human capital agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading,but also show that the human capital agglomeration has a economic development threshold effect on the industrial structure upgrading.When the level of economic development leaps over threshold value,human capital agglomeration will promote industrial structure change.Further,in order to overcome the endogenous problem which caused by the two-way causality relationship between human capital agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading,we rebuild a simultaneous equations model.The results are consistent with PSTR model.So the conclusions of this paper show a good robustness.(4)The trend of human capital agglomeration continues to strengthen,while the spatial distribution of human capital is highly different in China.In view of this problem,this paper discusses the influence of the spatial distribution discrepancy of human capital on industrial structure upgrading from the perspective of industrial heterogeneity.We use the educational Gini coefficient and the Teller index to describe the spatial distribution discrepancy of human capital.From the measurement results,the spatial distribution discrepancy of human capital in China is declining.Then,because of Teller index has an excellent characteristic of the decomposition,the spatial distribution discrepancy of human capital is decomposed,in order to more clearly reflect internal structure changes.The results show that the spatial distribution discrepancy of human capital in China is mainly due to regional differences.In addition,this paper introduces urban-rural income gap as intermediary variable,and uses the mediating effect model to test the echanism that how the spatial distribution discrepancy of human capital affect industrial structure upgrading through urban-rural income gap.The results show that the spatial distribution discrepancy of human capital will cause the expansion of rural-urban income,and the intermediary effect of urban-rural income gap will inhibit the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.