Whole Life-cycle Risk Assessment System Of Infrastructure BOT Projects

With the rapid development of national economy and the strong growth of infrastructure construction demand,a variety of financing,construction and operation models have emerged.A number of projects have achieved good results in the promotion and implementation of the BOT model,and the scope of application is becoming more and more extensive,but there are some noteworthy problems in the concrete implementation.Deeply exploring the risks and countermeasures faced by infrastructure BOT projects in the whole life cycle has become a realistic problem that needs to be studied vigorously by all walks of life.Based on the theory of comprehensive risk management,this paper studies the risk of infrastructure BOT project from the perspective of whole life cycle,aiming at how to identify and evaluate the risk effectively and give the countermeasures.With the help of contradiction analysis and factor analysis,this paper makes a preliminary analysis of the experience of BOT project construction and the present situation of risk control at home and abroad,and finds that there are some problems in risk identification ability,large error of risk evaluation,insufficient fairness of risk evaluation and backward risk management methods in infrastructure BOT project in China.In order to better solve this kind of problems,the construction at home and abroad Based on the test,the main factors and principles that should be taken into account for the risk control of BOT project in the whole life cycle are put forward.After that,the WBS-RBS method and Delphi method were used to identify the risk from the four stages of the whole life cycle and the specific tasks of different stages,and the identification results were analyzed in detail to construct a more comprehensive list of risk factors.Through the comparative analysis of various commonly used risk assessment methods in the risk assessment stage,the D-S evidence theory combined with quantitative analysis and AHP analytic hierarchy process are finally selected to establish the risk assessment model Lastly,taking the BOT project of Metro Line 5 of A City as an example,this model is used to evaluate the risk of each stage of the project in the whole life cycle,to determine the key risk factors and the overall risk level of the project,and to put forward the targeted risk response measures for the key risk factors combined with the actual project.Emphasis should be placed on strengthening safety training and education for employees before taking up the post,strengthening safety inspection of machinery and equipment before entering the field,scientifically analyzing the construction geological environment,standardizing construction safety management,insisting on PDCA continuous improvement,etc.At the same time,the conditions of adopting BOT model for infrastructure construction are discussed.