| China has made the promise that carbon emissions will reach the peak by 2030 and carbon emission intensity will realize a decline of 60-65% compared with 2005 at the United Nations Climate Conference in Paris.And we propose to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030 in "Energy Development Strategy Action Plan(2014-2020)".These actions not only show China’s determination on energy-saving emission reduction and ecological civilization construction,but push the non-fossil energy development to the national strategy,making the new energy usher in a new development opportunity as an important component of non-fossil energy.Currently China’s new energy has developed and its installed capacity grown rapidly,but "abandoning solar and wind energy" is gradually increasing.On the basis of evaluating the efficiency of five new energies,this paper attempts to discuss the problems in China’s new energy power generation,and put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of new energy industry.Now the development of new energy in China is in the early stage of industry,which is a prerequisite,also the industrial development owns the specific law and actually the development of new energy can be out of order without this law.Based on the previous studies and under the guidance of relevant industry theory,energy theory and energy substitution theory,this paper explores the factors affecting the new energy development from two aspects: oil price and carbon emission.On the basis of analyzing the present situation of wind energy,solar energy,nuclear energy,biomass energy and geothermal energy in China,the paper takes the installed capacity,investment,R & D investment and labor force as input indices and generating capacity as the output index,compares five new energies power generation efficiency in China,the United States,France,Germany,Japan,Brazil and India through data envelopment analysis and Panel data Malmquist index,obtains China’s international status of new energy power generation efficiency and further explores the current problems in China’s new energy power generation.Then,the paper assesses five new energies power generation efficiency and conducts the priority sequence on new energy development by combining with the corresponding development plan to achieve the optimal development pattern,reduce blind and disorder investment of new energy and improve the power generation efficiency.Finally,the paper evaluates the new energy power generation efficiency in each province by Bootstrap-DEA method,analyze the impact of resources,power generation,electricity consumption,GDP,per capita GDP,urbanization rate and pollutant emission on new energy power generation efficiency by Tobit model,obtains the main factors affecting the power generation efficiency and further puts forward countermeasures and suggestions of the efficiency of new energy power generation in China.According to the correlation analysis between oil price and new energy consumption since 1965,the paper concludes that the rise in oil prices has promoted the development of new energy sources.In the future,with the development of new energy technologies,the impact of oil prices on new energy generation will gradually decrease,and even the development of new energy will,in turn,affect the change in oil prices.By exploring the relationship between energy consumption structure and carbon emissions,we find that carbon emissions are another important external factor to stimulate the development of new energy sources.It is concluded that the efficiency of global wind power generation has been increasing rapidly since 2006,while it is still at a low level in China by comparing power generation efficiency between China’s new energies and five new energies in typical countries from 2006 to 2015.In general,China’s wind power generation efficiency gets improvement gradually.Although China’s photovoltaic power generation efficiency is still at a low level compared with other countries,it has increased rapidly since 2011.And the rapid increase makes the broad prospect of photovoltaic power generation.The gradual increase in China’s biomass power generation production efficiency mainly relies on technological progress and its technical efficiency basically obtains the optimal as China is the one of the first countries using biomass power generation in the world.Currently China only conducts geothermal power generation at Yangbajing of Tibet due to the restricted resources,therefore,the small geothermal power generation installed capacity and investment make China’s geothermal power generation efficiency not improved significantly.The global nuclear power generation efficiency experiences varying degrees of decline after Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011.China’s nuclear power generation efficiency is also gradually decreased and the nuclear power industry gets poor development.The priority sequence of new energy power generation in China is: solar energy> wind energy> nuclear energy> biomass energy> geothermal energy by assessing five new energies power generation efficiency in China from 2006 to 2015.This paper only assesses the power generation efficiency of solar and wind energy from 2006 to 2015 due to the limited data and obtains that most wind power generation efficiency is still between 0.4 and 0.6 in China,so it is necessary to adjust the existing development and utilization planning as the low wind power generation efficiency.Photovoltaic power generation efficiency in most provinces of China is mainly under 0.6 and indicates that China’s has low photovoltaic power generation efficiency and should not blindly pursue the scale,while ignoring the improvement in technical and management level and leading to low power generation efficiency and waste of resources.It can be concluded that per capita GDP has the greatest impact on wind power generation efficiency through the analysis of the factors of wind power generation efficiency in China’s provinces with Tobit model.The driving factors of photovoltaic power generation efficiency are different from that of wind energy and the greater impact of urbanization rate on the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation show that the utilization of solar energy in cities can play a role in promoting the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation.The rapid increase in installed capacity of China’s new energy and the lower power generation growth rate than the input growth rate actually make the present low efficiency of power generation.The future new energy in China should conduct investment and development in accordance with the rational priority sequence and improve the management level of power infrastructure and new energy power generation industry to increase grid power generation.In addition,the provinces with higher new energy power generation efficiency can increase the new energy investment,while the provinces with lower new energy power generation efficiency should strictly control the growth of new energy installed capacity and avoid "abandoning wind and solar energy". |
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