The Research On The Evaluation Of The Comprehensive Quality Of China's Trade

This paper attempts to make a systematic research on the evaluation of comprehensive quality of China's trade by integrating qualitative and quantitative analysis from theory to application,so as to fill the shortage of systematic research on the evaluation of comprehensive quality of trade.China already stepped onto the level of great countries of trade since the beginning of the second decade of 21 century.To raise trade quality has become the most important subject instead of increasing trade quantity.This paper probes the comprehensive quality of trade beginning with the investigation of the theoretical connotation directed by Marxism philosophy as the guiding ideology and based on the analysis of the existing literature and the international trade theory,and expounds the connotation of China's comprehensive quality of trade.Furthermore,the paper discusses the differences and relations of relative concepts of trade.Based on the connotation of China's comprehensive quality of trade,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system by taking China ' s trade strategy as a direction.The indicator system consists of four groups: trade growth,trade structure,trade sustainability,and international status.The framework of the indicator system is divided into three layers: strategic direction,strategic target and index level.Each evaluation indicator is chosen according to related theories,domestic and foreign scholars' viewpoints,and trade strategy proposed by the government.The principal component analysis and the efficiency coefficient evaluation are used to calculate the value of China's comprehensive quality of trade,and then they are combined to analysis the comprehensive quality of China's trade.The principal component analysis is used on the grouped indicator variables.The efficiency coefficient evaluation is adopted on three kinds of weighting schemes.Finally,the author forms an index model of comprehensive quality of China's trade.Two time-series sets of data are used to carry on the comprehensive evaluation research.The data set A contains 26 indicators with the data covering the year from2003 to 2014.The data set B contains 29 indicators with the data covering the year from 2006 to 2014.The difference between the system is that the latter contains the indicator of high-tech products of processing trade,the proportion of high-tech products in exports and the proportion of high-tech products in imports,and which are not included in the former because of the data shortage for the year 2003-2005.The trend charts of the principal component analysis on grouped indicator variables do not show a continuous rising but fluctuation,especially from 2009 to 2010.The trend based on the efficiency coefficient evaluation is not a continuous upward trend either,but characterized with stage.For the indicator system A,the overall quality of trade has not been significantly improved during the stage from 2003 to 2009,for another stage after the year of 2010,the comprehensive quality of trade has been significantly improved.The trend based on the system B is similar with A.Comparing the results of both the principal components analysis and the efficiency coefficient evaluation,which have been further treated with the method of standardization,we found that there is a good match between the two methods,especially for the indicator system A,and the author concludes the results of the grouped principal components analysis and the efficiency coefficient evaluation can well reflect the actual trend and the characteristics of China's comprehensive quality of trade.The index of composing the values of the two methods shows the stage of up-trend with fluctuation.This paper tries to construct a composite index model for the comprehensive quality of trade considering that the negative value is not easy to explain its economic means,and take the year of 2003 as the base year for the system A,and take 2006 as the base year for the system B.The advantage of composite index is clear since its economic significance is more intuitive,and it not only reflects the overall trend but also the change in comparison with its base year.When the composite index is positive,it means that the comprehensive quality of trade has improved over the base year,and the greater the value,the greater the degree of improvement.When the composite index is negative,that means the comprehensive quality of trade of this year has deteriorated,and the greater the absolute value,the deeper the degree of deterioration.At the same time,to form a composite index of the comprehensive quality of China's trade would put forward the research on the comprehensive evaluation in a long-term.In view of the evaluation results,we get the following conclusions: from 2003 to 2014,the comprehensive quality of China's trade has been improved as a whole,the trend is not rising continuously but increasing periodically with fluctuation.There is no obviously improvement before 2010 and it appears an overall improvement after2010.international status.There is basic equilibrium between imports and exports.International market concentration is declining and in the direction of diversification.The structure of trade establishments of different ownership is further optimized.The imbalance of domestic regional development has been improved to some extent.The proportion of trade in modern services to the whole trade in services has been increased;the proportion of major energy products,high energy consuming products and high pollution products in the export after the year of 2009 are in a downward trend.The shortage resources and raw materials in the proportion of imports continue to rise.The international market share is in increasing.The appreciation rate of labor intensive products increased significantly.However,some other aspects dragged the comprehensive quality of China's trade,mainly in the trade growth rate which has a large fluctuation affected by the international economic situation;and the product structure needs to be upgraded,especially the high-tech products export trade needs to be improved.The concentration of trade in the east has not changed fundamentally.The processing trade value-added rate is unstable.Based on the analysis of China's comprehensive quality of trade from 2003 to 2014 with indicator system A and from 2006 to 2014 with system B,this paper proposes the following four aspects to improve comprehensive quality:(1)to make further efforts on the development of trade in services,especially in the modern trade in services such as international finance,international insurance,information processing,software services;to seize the opportunity of development of international service outsourcing to promote trade in services.(2)to advance international market diversification.Under the background that the global economy is in a downturn,developed countries and regions is a in a declining economy,choose parts of the areas which have a good economic performance as trade partner among emerging economies,developing countries,bordering and surrounding areas,and develop the trade with Africa and Latin America.(3)To promote regional development equilibrium.The traditional advantage of processing trade in the eastern region is losing,but it has the advantage in technology and capital,and already has the basis of changing processing trade from labor-intensive to technology and capital intensive.The traditional labor-intensive processing trade can be transferred to the central and western regions,give full play to the advantages of labor and resources in the central and western regions,and promote the balanced development of the regional economy through the transfer of processing trade.(4)To upgrade trade products.The product structure of trade in our country still needs further be transformed,need to further develop high-tech products and capital and technology intensive products in export;to increase the added value of labor-intensive products and processing trade products,improve China's position in the global value chain.Reduce the export of energy products,high energy consuming products and high pollution products,and handle well the relationship between trade and ecological environment.