The Influence Of Housing Price Fluctuation On Heterogeneous Labor Mobility And Industial Structure Change

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has been based on the low cost advantage of production factors.At present,China's economy in the process of rapid development,due to the scarcity of resources and constraints,making all the production costs and the cost of living is increasing,especially as prices rise,a direct cause of the increased cost of production factors,increase the cost of the enterprise will lead to some low value-added business relocation,the relocation what will cause the city industry "hollow" or city high value-added industries industry chain upward to provide space for development,which requires systematic discussion of rising prices on the impact of industrial structure change,not only to discuss the price fluctuations of the rationalization of industrial structure and the influence of influence of price fluctuation on the advanced industrial structure degree;on the other hand housing prices directly lead to the labor cost of living increase,however,such as the north of Guangzhou first-tier cities,although the real Prices,still continues to attract labor inflow and outflow,and the previous conclusions "rising prices of labor form a crowding out effect" is not consistent,whether the impact of price fluctuations on labor mobility need further,further,the reconstruction of labor structure and what impact on the change of City Industrial structure.This series of problems have shown that it is necessary to study the impact of housing price on labor mobility and industrial structure change.This research is based on the real estate economics theory,theory of labor force flow and change of industrial structure theory,starting from the perspective of cost drivers,through the establishment of price effect of driving the evolution mechanism of industrial structure and employment structure,points out the inherent logic of price effect of driving the industrial structure changes,this intermediate mechanism of heterogeneity of labor flow.Specifically,the internal mechanism of driving effect of industrial structure change from the housing price factor price rise angle is the price,is the main measure to meet the production cost of the enterprise profit maximization under the premise of price increases caused by the increase of representative enterprises caused by the transfer(manufacturers)or upgrade the threshold value,discusses the representative enterprise driven prices(manufacturers)affect the decision-making behavior of the industrial structure changes;housing prices from internal mechanism to increase the cost of living is to promote the view of the housing prices are driven influence on the industrial structure change,the effect in the middle part of the introduction of heterogeneity of labor flow,first study the price effect of driving on labor mobility decisions,derived driven migration model under absolute prices labor mobility and relative migration model,judging by the rural labor force will move into the city in the circumstances(absolute migration),and moved to another city from a city in which case(relative migration),and then based on the relative migration in the model,introducing heterogeneity in labor,further subdivided housing prices impact on labor mobility decisions,influence to deduce the flow and reconstruction of relative price fluctuations across regions of the heterogeneous labor then,starting from the heterogeneous labor migration decision,to discuss the impact of new labor market structure on the industrial structure changes.In the part of qualitative research,and summarizes the trend and characteristics of price fluctuations in China,and will study the house price fluctuation trend into the status and characteristics of flow heterogeneity of labor force in China and the changes of industrial structure.The analysis of house price volatility and heterogeneity of labor mobility in the qualitative(industrial structure change)relationship,the main investigation,both the changes of the map,found the relative price fluctuations of Heterogeneous Labor(industrial structure change)the impact of the change is a lag,and relative prices and heterogeneous labor(industrial structure related)change both at some stage showed positive correlation,and some stage shows a negative correlation,further,correlation coefficient to prove the existence of positive correlation between the two,it can be concluded that the price fluctuation and heterogeneous labor(industrial structure change)complex non-linear relationship between.In the first part of the empirical research,the main driving mechanism is prices directly lead to changes in industrial structure based on the qualitative analysis,and the first Granger causality test between the two,and then the quantitative analysis of linear city house price fluctuations on the industrial structure changes(for comparison)and nonlinear effects,and more in-depth discussion from in view of city structure and relative prices impact on the industrial output value and city area effect relative prices impact on the industrial structure changes effect.The empirical results show that price fluctuations are significant nonlinear effects on the change of industrial structure(explain the qualitative part of certain outcomes),in the long term price fluctuations will not be conducive to the evolution of industrial structure,but in the short term,the relative housing prices in favor of city industrial structure rationalization and advanced process,and in the short-term relative prices the relative value of the second industry formed a significant crowding out effect,and promote the increase of third relative industrial output value,that will encourage local area of low added value in the short-term relative prices of the second city industrial transfer,to promote the second industry value chain are rising,for the development of the third industry to provide a broader space for development promote the city economic structure,moving toward "service economy" trend,prompting the city industrial upgrading.In addition,through the analysis of East,middle,West and northeast region,the relative difference of regional housing price is an important factor affecting the industrial structure change in the East,middle,West and northeast regions.High house prices increased production costs,forcing the eastern region in the low end of the value chain in the industry gradually transferred to the relatively low prices in the Midwest,this is good for the eastern industrial upgrading,on the other hand to other regions with their own advantages,to undertake industrial transfer,to achieve the rationalization of industrial structure.In the second part of the empirical research,mainly is the intrinsic mechanism in heterogeneous labor migration as the intermediate variables driving prices indirectly caused by the changes of industrial structure based on the qualitative analysis and the quantitative discussion is a nonlinear effect of price fluctuations and heterogeneous labor migration decision,two is the quantitative analysis of price fluctuations nonlinear heterogeneous labor on the influence of industrial structure change.The empirical results show that price fluctuations are significant nonlinear effects on the heterogeneous labor migration(explain the qualitative part of certain outcomes),in the long-term price fluctuations of the heterogeneous labor form a crowding out effect(consistent with general research),but in the short-term relative price increases for labor agglomeration,but ordinary labor housing prices are more sensitive,so the high prices of ordinary labor first crowding out,forcing the ordinary labor transfer to lower prices of the city,and technical personnel often have some housing prices under pressure,relative prices exist inflection points of the heterogeneous labor migration is different,ordinary labor facing prices inflection point is smaller.In addition,in the discussion area especially for the central region,high prices strong crowding out effect on the formation of common employment;the western region;high prices both for technical personnel or ordinary labor have formed a significant crowding out effect.Affected by the heterogeneous labor migration as the intermediate variables,relative prices rose by city flow decision effect of technical personnel,and promote the agglomeration of technical personnel,to promote the industry value chain to high-end rise,triggering the city industrial transfer,make industrial structure more reasonable,and the relative prices affect the flow through the city making ordinary labor force.The general labor overflow,is not conducive to the rise of industrial value chain,hinder the rationalization of industrial structure,the city is not conducive to the rationalization of industrial structure.City house prices rose by relative influence the flow of labor decision,will eventually form a crowding out effect on technical personnel and ordinary labor,with the continuous labor spillover,ultimately will be detrimental to the industry level,hindering the city industrial upgrading.Through qualitative and quantitative analysis,implementation,development of industrial structure and employment structure in the house to be driven in the background,realize the coordination and optimization of regional economic development,must be the price control target and population distribution,regional industrial layout organically,to guide the orderly flow of labor heterogeneity,thereby promoting regional industrial transfer in an orderly manner,to fundamentally solve the problem of unbalanced development of regional economy.Specifically,is the implementation of regulatory measures to local real estate prices,promote the prices reasonable return;promote the rational and orderly flow of labor heterogeneity;based on the reconstruction of the heterogeneity labor,promote the re layout and optimization of industrial structure.