Research On The Efficiency And Quality Of Urbanization And Its Driving Mechanism Faced With The Three Turning Point Concurrence

At present,urbanization in China has entered into the concurrence stage of three turning points named urbanization turning point,Lewis turning point and aging population turning point.City disease and countryside disease reflect the quality crisis of urbanization.On the other hand,as the main dynamics for the development of economic society of our country in the following several decades,urbanization undertakes the heavy task of recruitment of domestic demand,structure transformation and upgrading of economic society.China's new urbanization is trapped in the antinomy dilemma.On the basis of existing theories and empirical research achievements,we study labor force transfer and absorption,efficiency and quality of urbanization in a complete theory framework in order to seek their internal relationship and mechanism,and to study the absorbing efficiency of industrial structure.This paper will provide reference for rational and orderly shift of rural labor force and give suggestions for the operation of high efficiency urbanization so as to realize high quality and equalization of urbanization in the future.Firstly,this paper systematically analyses characteristics of the development of urbanization and rural surplus labor transfer from time and space angel.We calculate the absolute number of transferred labor force,implicit number of rural surplus labor force and number of labor force under employment.We also predict the number of labor force.Results revealed that the Lewis turning point hasn't arrived yet.There still exist lots of surplus labor force in agricultural sectors.With the method of ridge regression we found that level of industrialization and income gap between urban and rural areas mainly influenced the amount of rural labor force transfer.Secondly,considering the absorptive capability of cities,with strict Delphiexperts investigation method,the paper constructs evaluation index system for urbanization quality from 8 dimensions.Quality of urbanization in China keeps rising since 2000 but is still in a low coupling state.It also appears a decreasing pattern from eastern,middle to western areas.Meanwhile high rate of population urbanization doesn't mean high quality of urbanization.With ISBM model and non-radial and super-efficient BCC model we found that efficiency of urbanization and efficiency of absorbing surplus labor force were both on the low side.The decreasing pattern from eastern,middle to western areas hasn't been improved substantially since 2000.Finally,Panel model helps us find driving factors for quality and efficiency of urbanization.The paper gives some suggestions from the aspect of industrial structure and urbanization development model.Administrative power,outgoing force,market power and internal force all positively impact efficiency of urbanization.Aging also impacts the quality and efficiency of urbanization significantly.On the basis of empirical analysis,we give some suggestions in order to deal with the challenge of three turning points in the future.