Dynamic Simulation Of Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation Of Nature Gas Resources In China

Energy provides a material impetus for economic development.The Current coal-based energy consumption structure is an important cause of air pollution in China.The energy structure reform to increase clean energy consumption urgently needs to be accelerated.As the main body of China's clean energy,natural gas resources can not only provide impetus for economic growth,but also improve the quality of the atmospheric environment.This paper aims at realizing the triple objectives of natural gas supply security,stable economic growth,and the improvement of atmospheric environmental quality through optimal allocation of natural gas resources in China.The research contents and mainly innovations are as follows:Firstly,according to the theory of material-energy-value balance and input-output theory,this paper constructs a model for multi-objective optimal allocation of natural gas resources in China.The model includes an objective function,natural gas resource supply and demand balance module,socio-economic development module,and atmospheric environmental constraining module.In the model,the policies and measures for natural gas resource supply security constraints,optimization of the consumption structure of natural gas resources,adjustment of industrial structure,and emission reduction of air pollution are converted into variable introduction models.The base period is 2012,and the simulation period is 2013 to2025.The goal of the simulation is to achieve optimal economic growth under natural gas resource supply security and atmospheric environmental quality improvement.Secondly,using Linear Interactive and General Optimizer?Lingo?software to simulate the policy combination,introduced in the model,and select the optimal scenario.By analyzing and comparing the changing trend of the nature gas supply and demand,economy and environment under different scenarios,this paper finds the optimal scenario.The optimal scenario shows that natural gas consumption will reach 217.1 billion cubic meters in China in 2025,accounting for 7.8%of the total energy consumption.The utilization efficiency of natural gas will be improved,and the domestic production capacity will meet the demand.The energy consumption structure will be optimized,and the consumption intensity will decrease to 1.56million cubic meter/billion yuan.GDP will reach 139 trillion yuan with the annual growth rate7.5%,and the three industrial structure will be 5.3:38.8:55.9.The annual emission reduction of SO₂ and NOx will be 3.6%and 4.5%.The three goals of natural gas supply security,economic stable growth and the improvement of atmospheric environmental quality are basically achieved.Finally,based on the simulation results of the policy portfolio under the optimal scenario,we propose the following policy recommendations.The supply of natural gas increased steadily from 148.2 billion cubic meters to 217.1 billion cubic meters from 2013 to 2025,with a focus on increasing the consumption of the chemical industry,the oil and gas exploration industry,other tertiary industry,other manufacturing industry and residential life sectors,and reducing the consumption of the production and supply of electricity and heat industry and non-metallic minerals industry.Other tertiary industry and other manufacturing industry should be focused on development.The metal smelting and rolling processing industry,non-metallic minerals industry and the production and supply of electricity and heat should be reduced.