| The security of energy mineral resources is of great concern to the world,and the security of strategic mineral resources is the core of energy mineral resources security.The international mining market has become more volatile under the background of complex geopolitics,causing new opportunities and challenges in international cooperation of mining industry.China's resource base is relatively weak since strategic mineral resources per capita are far lower than the world average.The investment of unconventional oil and gas resources and natural uranium resources is declining in the international mining market,which increases the security risk of strategic mineral resources.During the period of 13 th Five-Year,with China's economic development to The New Normal,upgrading and management reform is very urgent,in the background of domestic and foreign resources security situation has undergone profound changes under the adjustment of industrial structure.Strategic mineral security has always been one of the key problems to restrict the overall safety of China.Based on the Global Mineral Resources Planning(2015-2020),China listed oil,natural gas,coal,rare earth,crystalline graphite and other 24 kinds of minerals in the catalogue of strategic mineral,of which strategic energy mineral resources are including oil,natural gas,shale gas,coal and coal-bed methane(CBM),and uranium.Further,the thesis looks oil,natural gas and coal as the traditional strategic energy mineral resources,and shale gas,CBM and uranium as unconventional energy mineral resources.The purpose of this thesis is to build national strategic minerals resource safety evaluation of multiple factors to assess the risk of mineral resources,and then to find the key point for risk prevention and resolution.achieve national interests in energy security as the goal,considering overall global common security and national security,price affordability or volatility,global environmental governance and the sustainable development question at the same time.The thesis is structured as follows:Chapter one is introduction.Firstly,it elaborated the research background,purpose and significance.Then,it reviewed research status at home and abroad from the concept of energy security,energy mineral resources security assessment methods and models and mineral resources security evaluation research in China,and found the primary concern of existing literature on the basic theory of energy mineral resources security,summary of evaluation method and the value of the energy mineral resources security etc.There is little concern about comparative research of strategic energy minerals resource safety evaluation index model and security control strategy research.Based on this,the thesis determines the research content,under the background of global strategic energy mineral resources security,is to construction of China's strategic energy minerals resource safety evaluation model,and analyze the present situation of China's strategic energy mineral resource security,then put forward as a whole of global common security and national security strategic energy minerals resource safety control strategy.The second chapter is the general theory and method of the thesis.This chapter embarks from the strategic nature of the energy mineral resources security,combed the resource scarcity theory,geopolitical theory and the sustainable development theory,and on this basis,from the viewpoints of both domestic and international market put forward to promote the optimal depletion of resource replacement and way;It is pointed out that the strategic energy mineral resources should be developed and utilized strategically,which is an important aspect of strategic energy resources safety assessment.Also stressed under the condition of sustainable development,strategic energy mineral resource availability and environmental system by extension recoverability of strategic energy mineral resources utilization efficiency and fairness,achieve the optimal configuration,ensure the fair and in the generation of intergenerational equity.The paper further selects the indexes of strategic energy and mineral security assessment and summarizes the methods of energy security assessment.The third chapter is the present situation and development trend of China's strategic energy mineral resources.Firstly,it summarized global strategic energy mineral resources security situation from the perspective of supply and demand.It summarizes China's strategic energy mineral resources situation from the perspective of supply and demand present.The reserves of mineral resources,the supply and demand situation and consumption structure of China's strategic energy mineral resources are clear.Secondly,traditional strategic energy mineral resources supply and demand of and coalbed methane(CBM)production are predicted based on GM(1,1)model.The results show that by 2030 China's traditional strategic energy mineral resources supply and demand gap is bigger,external dependency is in high-risk state,CBM development can narrow the conventional gas countless gap,but it should be on the basis of the specific conditions of ore mining technology breakthrough to ensure the realization of the CBM production stable.Due to the lack of data,the paper does not predict the development trend of shale gas,and the prediction of shale gas is mainly based on the domestic and international comparisons.Chapter four is China's strategic energy mineral resources safety assessment model.It constructed three kinds of China's strategic energy mineral resources safety evaluation model,which are PSR model,EM-PSO-ELM model and energy security three dimensional goals-process models,and elaborated the method of model building,index selection and calculation.In general,the PSR model can evaluate pressure,state and response policy of strategic energy mineral resources;EM-PSO-ELM model is good at predicting the future in Chinese in carbon emissions peak scenario and the comprehensive well-off scene by learning;3d goals-process model can assess the current state if there is a security risk by calculating the difference between the current development state and target state.In the sixth chapter,when assessing the security situation of China's strategic energy and mineral resources,the thesis only takes the traditional strategic energy mineral resources as an example.The fifth chapter is the analysis of the security situation and risk point of China's strategic energy mineral resources.It makes a comparative analysis of the security situation of China's traditional strategic energy mineral resources by using the energy security assessment model constructed in chapter 4.The results show that between 2000 and 2015,oil and gas security showed a rising trend,and overall energy security was improved,and the safety level of coal development was lower than that of oil and natural gas.Between 2020 and 2035,the safety index of oil and natural gas will decline first and then rise,and security will change from weak to unsafe.Coal safety index rose,but still in a very unsafe state,only in the government to take reasonable measures of high scenario,safety index more than 0.8 in 2035,to achieve the basic security status,indicates that the coal safety has large potential.Then,Fisher's discriminant analysis is used to oil,coal and natural gas under energy security "4a" theoretical framework,which can identify different safety risk point of different minerals.The results show that availability and accessibility are the main risk points for oil.For coal,acceptability and affordability are the main risk points.Availability and accessibility are the main risk points for natural gas.Chapter six is the suggestions of risk prevention and regulation of China's strategic energy mineral resources security.Firstly,it builds the global strategic energy security supply safety assessment index system,and access only the traditional strategic energy mineral resources security assessment of suppliers around the world limited to data availability.Then it combed safety regulation policies and measures of strategic energy mineral resources in foreign country.Secondly,In fully draw lessons from foreign experience,the basic regulation which is to satisfy the demands of economic and social development and people's livelihood as foothold,and focus on the optimization of energy system,lacking resources and environment constraints,so as to build clean low-carbon,safe and efficient modern energy system.In addition,according to the present situation of energy development in China,corresponding countermeasures are put forward for different energy mines.Chapter seven is the conclusion and prospect. |
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