The Resarch Of China's Trade Implied Carbon Accounting And Carbon Peak

The development of the global economy is accompanied by a large amount of energy,which increases greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,judging China's trade carbon emissions based on the perspective of international trade is conducive to deepening the detailed understanding of China's carbon emissions,and at the same time laying a certain data foundation for predicting the time and level of China's carbon peaks,and at the same time implementing reasonable for China.The emission reduction policy and the development of a green and low-carbon economy have laid a solid scientific foundation.Therefore,in the process of studying carbon peaks,firstly,we use the input-output method to calculate China's trade implied carbon and China's carbon emissions,describe and analyze the development status,and explore the development rules;further,with the help of SDA(Structural)Decomposition Analysis)Decomposition technology analyzes the impact factors of carbon emissions and explores the underlying causes of carbon emissions changes.This not only explains the above phenomena,but also provides theoretical support for the prediction of carbon peaks.Finally,predicts carbon emissions.Peak,with the help of nighttime lighting data to correct economic development data,SDA decomposition technology obtained relevant influencing factors,and carbon emission data calculated by the global input-output table,using policy scenario analysis method to predict the time and level of China's carbon peak estimate.Therefore,the paper mainly includes:(1)Analysis of the current status of implied carbon and carbon emissions in China's trade.First,data preprocessing is performed on the global input-output database.Secondly,combined with input-output technology,China's trade implied carbon and carbon emissions are accounted for,and the industrial sector is merged into seven industrial sectors,and the national level is classified into 14 Countries(regions);Finally,the accounting results are analyzed to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of China's trade carbon emissions from the national and industrial levels.The research shows that China's total carbon emissions show an increasing trend as a whole,and the implied carbon of export trade tends to increase,and the implied carbon of export trade accounts for the majority of heavy manufacturing,service,light manufacturing and energy industries;At the national level,the implied carbon of China's export trade is concentrated in the developed countries such as the European Union and the United States,which are mainly France and Germany.The implied carbon of China's import trade is concentrated in heavy manufacturing,service industries,energy industries and agriculture.In other countries,Russia,South Korea,the United States and the European Union countries;a comparative analysis of the implied carbon of import and export trade shows that China is a net outflowing country,and export trade will intensify China's global pressure on emission reduction to a certain extent.(2)Analysis of relevant factors affecting China's carbon emissions.Using SDA technology,this paper decomposes it from energy consumption intensity,carbon emission factor,input-output coefficient,domestic demand and foreign demand.The results show thatthe input-output coefficient effect and the demand effect lead to the expansion of carbon emissions,while the energy consumption intensity effect and the carbon emission factor effect play a depressing role;from the departmental level,the energy industry in various sectors during the period 1995-2011,Heavy manufacturing,services,light manufacturing,construction and agriculture have contributed to the increase in carbon emissions,and other industries have had an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;from 1995-2000,2000-2005,2005-2011 The effects of influencing factors on carbon emissions at different stages are different.The effect of energy consumption intensity on the increase of carbon emissions in the energy industry and heavy manufacturing industry is the most prominent.The domestic demand effect is carbon emissions in the energy industry and heavy manufacturing.The promotion effect of the increase is more significant;from the national level analysis,during the period 1995-2011,other countries,the EU countries dominated by France and Germany,and the United States have the most prominent effect on the increase of carbon emissions in China.Therefore,in view of the decomposition of SDA technology,the input-output coefficient and demand effect lead to an increase in carbon emissions,and energy consumption intensity and carbon emission factors cause carbon emissions to decrease.(3)Carbon peak prediction.Based on the research on China's carbon emissions and related influencing factors,different scenarios will be set to estimate carbon peaks.First,the economic data used in this paper will be simulated through global nighttime lighting data.Secondly,the carbon emission scenarios will be set according to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”,the“Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”and the“2030 Summit”.The scenario is to perform carbon peak estimation;finally,the analysis of the empirical results.The results show that China's GDP has a very high correlation with the lighting data.94.24% of the GDP can be explained by the light data;the set carbon emission scenarios peak before 2050.And at the same level of economic development,the faster the carbon emission intensity declines,the earlier the carbon peak is reached,and the carbon peak is relatively low.