Research On Investment Monitoring Mechanism And Model For Complex And Large Project Under Contract Chain

The past few years witnessed steady growth of complex and large projects(CLPs)at home and abroad for the impetus of globalization process of peace and development,dynamic development of the economic and technological innovation.With the flow of resources,the competitive intensity of the global engineering project market is also gradually upgrading.Regardless of the number or difficulty of the project,it brings great challenges to the current project management.Actually,the performance of CLPs in implementation is not satisfactory,for that the problems of investment overexpenditure and investment efficiency are outstanding.The current situation has brought great survival and development pressure to the investors,but traditional project investment control theory and method are difficult to provide strong support.The reasons are:firstly,it is usually carried out from the perspective of contractors,which brings difficulties to project investors when using the monitoring methods;secondly,it is usually carried out from the micro level or in stages,making the control of the project goal to be the local optimal solution or discussion of specific problems;thirdly,it is difficult to meet the demand of the project investment monitoring for high efficiency and high quality.To implement not only scientific and effective but also efficient and quality investment monitoring and management in CLPs from the perspective of project investors,this dissertation puts forward the concept of project investment monitoring based on contract chain.First a three-dimensional investment monitoring model based on capital flow is established.Then,the whole process investment monitoring method under the contract chain is put forward and the project investment deviation alarm and prediction models are constructed,the specific research contents include the following five parts.(1)Considering that traditional research on projectinvestment control fails to solve the project investment monitoring from the perspective of investors,and the investors lack the foundation of project investment monitoring,this dissertation first elaborates the basic characteristics of CLPs,and finds that the contract is the carrier among the participants,project investor and project itself,which had not only defined the project content,management authority and responsibility interface,also standardized project investment,with the concept of the contract chain put forward.Then,the content and characteristics of contract chain are expounded from perspective,object and management processes.And the feasibility is well demonstrated from the availability of data,logical relationships and interactivity between contract chain and investment objective.After that,the relationship among the investment objectives,ogress targets and quality objectives is discussed in order to better realize the project investment objectives.Finally,the differences and links between existing project investment control and contract management are analyzed,defining the scope of the study and highlighting the characteristics of the research.(2)To deal with the problems of investment monitoring investment deviation and rectification concerning efficiency and quality on the whole life cycle of CLPs,this dissertation first illustrates the management model and the characteristics of the participants,and the organizational hierarchy as well as structure of participants are fully identified and understood.Then,based on the capital flow,the investment monitoring model of CLPs is constructed from three dimensions of project investment deviation,investment monitoring process and investment monitoring level.It provides investors’supports of acquisition,identification,alarm prediction and correction of the investment status concerning life cycle and all participants as to realize high quality control masterly of investment deviation prior control.Finally,the guarantee mechanism and process of 3D investment monitoring model are shown in detail,providing reliable monitoring practice.(3)As for implementing CLPs investment monitoring mode to project level,based on the principle of economic application,comprehensive control and monitoring subject promotion,this dissertation firstly analy’zes CLPs contract chain,explains the process of establishing investment target and construction of contract chain,providing the basis for project investment monitoring.Then,to avoid fatigue and inefficient,the index system of key investment point is put forward,the method based on cloud model under pure 2tuple lingustic setting is constructed to settle the distortion from information loss.Finally,each stage monitoring process is planned according to their contents and characteristics.(4)On CLP investment deviation measure and alarm,this dissertation builds an investment deviation alarm model based on K-means algorithm,which can satisfy the need of CLP investment deviation alarm,including multi-scale warning level,economy and advancement.To effectively raise the alarm precision and quality,initial centroid guide line and constraint of subjective preference are put forward to overcome randomness and data dependencies,which improves the efficiency and quality of clustering.Accordingly,the investment deviation warning model based on the subjective preference constraint and K-means algorithm can provide accurate deviation alarm and help managers to carry out investment correction work.(5)On CLP investment deviation prediction,this dissertation builds "susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-susceptible" model through the epidemic mechanism.Based on current investment deviation it can forecast the investment deviation trend and influence degree in the future.First,the concept of epidemic model is extended to the influence of CLP investment deviation,and considering the discreteness of CLP investment deviation,the investment deviation prediction model based on discrete SEIRS model is constructed.Then,the parameters in the model are evaluated scientifically and accurately by introducing hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets(HFLTS)to solve decision makers’ hesitation of in the evaluation process.Thus,the investment deviation prediction model based on HFLTS-discrete SEIRS model can accurately predict the investment deviation and provide reliable corrective strategies for investment monitoring managers.