Efficiency Analysis And Policy Effect Simulation Of Electric Power Industry Under Different Operation Models

As an important basic industry of national economic development,electric power industry has strong natural monopoly,which makes the power industry less competitive and less efficient in operation.In order to transform the monopoly market structure into a competitive market structure,countries began to implementing the market-oriented reform of the electric power industry.China's power industry reform began in 1985,has experienced a total of three stages:fund collection for electricity,separating the functions of the government from those of enterprises and and the introduction competition in the power generation industry.In March 2015,the State Council issued a number of opinions on further deepening the reform of the power industry(Document No.9),and put forward the power industry reform structure of "regulating the middle,opening both ends",which marks the market-oriented reform of China's electric power industry into a new stage.Regulating the middle means that the power grid profit model from the purchase and sale price difference to charge transmission and distribution price,opening both ends means that power generation enterprises and sale enterprises to enter the market,direct transactions with power users,through competition to determine the amount of electricity and price.As a new industry,the electric power selling industry has developed rapidly since the introduction of the No.9 document of the electric power reform.As of March 2017,more than 6000 electric power selling companies have been registered and established nationwide,which has a significant impact on the power transmission and distribution business of the long-term monopoly operation of power grid enterprises.This paper uses data envelope analysis model(DEA)and computable general equilibrium model(CGE)to analyze the efficiency of electric power industry under different operation models and simulate the policy effect of power industry,in order to provide policy suggestions for electric power industry reform.The specific research contents are as follows:(1)The time evolution characteristics of power industry efficiency under different operation models are analyzed.Firstly,based on the comprehensive consideration of the technology,energy,economy and other factors in the four links of power generation,transmission,distribution and sale,the power carbon emission intensity index is put forward,as an important index variable under the development of low-carbon economy in the power generation industry,and the efficiency evaluation index system of the power industry under the new form is constructed.Secondly,based on the data envelopment analysis method,the efficiency analysis model of power industry with unexpected output is constructed,and monotonic decreasing transformation method is selected as the processing method of unexpected output.Finally,the overall efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of China's power industry in the 1985-2015 are calculated,and the return to scale is judged.The time evolution characteristics of electric power industry efficiency under the "vertical monopoly model" and "generation side competition model" are evaluated.(2)The dynamic DEA model is used to analyze the efficiency of electric power industry in vertical monopoly model.First of all,the power industry is regarded as a"black box" on the basis of studying the operation mode of the electric power industry under the vertical monopoly model,introducing the installed capacity of power generation,the length of transmission line and the capacity of transformer equipment as the carry-over variable of decision unit in the dynamic DEA model,the evaluation index system of power industry efficiency is established under the vertical monopoly model.Secondly,a multi-objective dynamic DEA evaluation model including index,constraint and time is constructed based on the hypothesis of"free dominance(LF)" of the carry-over variable.Finally,using data from the 26 provinces of the National Grid Grid Corp in 2013-2015,the period efficiency of the power industry in the provinces under the vertical monopoly model was calculated.(3)The dynamic network DEA model is used to analyze the efficiency of power industry under the generation side competition model.First of all,on the basis of studying the operation mode of power industry under the generation side competition model,the power industry is divided into two departments:power generation and power transmission,distribution and sale monopolistic department,the efficiency evaluation index system of the two departments is constructed,and the power transmission capactiy is introduced as the link between two departments.Secondly,based on the assumption that there are undesirable outputs in the electric power industry production and transmission process,and the variable of link and carry-over are subject to "free dominance(LF)",a dynamic network DEA model for power industry efficiency evaluation under the generation side competition model is constructed.Finally,using the data of 26 provinces of the National Grid Grid Corp in 2013-2015,the period efficiency,sector efficiency and sector period efficiency of electric power industry and two departments under the generation side competition model are calculated.(4)Using dynamic network DEA model,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the efficiency of power industry under the transmission network open model.Firstly,on the basis of studying the operation mode of power industry under the transmission network open model,the power industry is divided into three departments:power generation,transmission,distribution and sale.And the efficiency evaluation index system of the three departments is constructed.Secondly,considering that the separation of transmission and distribution in China's power industry is not really realized,this paper makes assumptions about the input of transmission,distribution and sale department and the sales of large and small users.Finally,the three-sector dynamic network DEA model was used to calculate the data of the 26 provinces of the National Grid Grid Corp in 2013-2015,and the period efficiency,sector efficiency and sector period efficiency were obtained under the transmission network open model.(5)Based on CGE model,the policy effect of the electric power industry under the complete competition model is simulated and analyzed.First of all,the China Energy Power CGE model is constructed by selecting 5-level nested CES production function,CET and Armington trade assignment function,linear consumption function and neo-classical closing rule.Secondly,based on the "2012 China input-output table",which is issued by the National Bureau of Economic Accounting of National Statistical Office in December 2015,we merged 42 departments to 11-sector account,and choose 3 institutional accounts(Government,business,Representative residents)and 2 factor input account(capital and labor)to set up China Energy Power SAM table.Finally,we simulates the influence of complete competition and partially competition on the electric power distribution and sale industry,and calculation the macro and micro effects caused by the fluctuation of electricity price.