Research On The Relationship Of The Space-time Coordination Between Port Development And Economic Growth

International Trade is the most important component of the market economy in the world,with the fact that more than 90%of international trade in goods is imported and exported through the port industries.Analysing the future of the China’s ports and the time of re-prosperity of the port industries from the point of the relationship between port industry and economic growth is of great significance to the development of the world port industries.With the policy of reforming and opening up,China’s economy become booming and has been the second largest economy in the world.The port industry is not only an important hinge in the China’s inernational trade,but also an important basic industry in terms of China’s economic and social development,which plays an important role in promoting the trade between China and the rest of the world.In addition,the implementation of the strategy of the "the Belt and the Road"increasingly need the intimate relationship among the countries along the route and exchanges in policy,facilities,trade,capital and the People’s hearts.Studying the relationship between port industries and economic growth and explore the opportunity of recovery in port industries is helpful to the resumption of the preference of financial investment institutions for the port industry and increase investment in the port industry.Apart from that,it is beneficial to the port industries and the industries related to the port industries.It means that once the port industries is thriving again,the maritime industry,shipbuilding and other industries will also be driven.According to the important theories such as spectrum theory,sustainable development theory and cross-spectrum analysis theory,this paper establishes the mathematical analysis model and analyses the relationship between port industries and economic growth.Firstly,the paper analyzes the relationship between the port industries and economic growth by the cross-spectrum method,and then constructs the mutual covariance function between port industry index and economic growth index according to the time series,apart from that,the cross-spectral density between port industry index and economic growth index series is obtained by fourier transform after truncation of the Tuki-Hanning window,and the mutual vibration amplitude spectrum,coherent spectrum and phase spectrum of the two are calculated,the correlation between port industries and economic growth,consistency and post-leadership relationship are expressed respectively.Then,the causality between port industries and economic growth is tested by the cointegration theory,and the relationship between the endogenous factors and the external impulse variables is determined by means of impulse response and variance decomposition.The calculation results show that the development and economic growth of China’s port industries will remain high level(3 or 4 years),and the economic growth will be ahead of the development of port industries by 0.8 to 1.1 years.Secondly,this paper analyzes the coordination between the port industries and the economic development in China.Based on the correlation model between port industries and economic growth,this paper extracts the related factors between port industries and economic growth,and then establishes a coordination index system to evaluate the relationship between,by using the principal component analysis method,a comprehensive index which can reflect port industry and economic growth is obtained by linear combination processing of multiple indexes by principal component analysis method,the level of the relationship between the port industries and economic growth is assessed by the type of co-ordination between port industries and economic growth.The results show that there are six obvious changes in the relationship between the port industries and China’s economic growth during the period from 1990 to 2014.Thirdly,the space-time difference between the port industries and economic growth in China is analyzed.Based on the research object of the five major port groups in China,the paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system to analyse the evolution and characteristics of spatial and temporal differences in port industries and economic growth in China by applying the model of gravity shift and exploratory spatial data between 1994 and 2014.The results show that the center of gravity of China’s port industries and economic growth is in the south,furthermore,it has a tendency of gradually moving to the regions in the long triangle.At the global level,the port industries present spatiotemporal differences from significant positive correlations to significantly negative correlations in temporal and spatial dimensions,and economic growth maintains positive spatial correlations in temporal and spatial dimensionsFinally,this paper analyzes the temporal-spatial relationship between the port industries and economic growth in China.The time-space autocorrelation and the time-space partial autocorrelation function are used to determine the optimal time lag period and the space delay order,and the global time-space self-correlation STI Index and local time-space self-correlation PSTI index are used to analyse the spatial-temporal correlation pattern of port industries and economic growth in the five major port groups.Through the systematic analysis,this paper reveals the relationship between China’s port industry and economic growth,which can provide a good scientific reference for the sustainable development of China’s port industries.