| According to the requirements in the thirteenth Five-Year Pla,n(2016-2020)that we promote the low-carbon development of transportation,make priority the public transport system and strengthen the construction of rail transit,our country is actively exploring,constructing and developing the comprehensive transportation system.Meanwhile,the railway,as the backbone of the comprehensive transportation system,plays a pivotal role.Its overall scale,rail network level,node connectivity and line alignment all directly affect the rationality of the integrated transportation system.Analyzing and studying the basic theories,methods and applications for calculating the railway network scale means a lot whether in weighing the adaptability of railway transport and economic development,or in determining reasonable railway target scale and growth mode,sharing the railway transport ratio in the comprehensive transportation system,realizing the modernization and intelligence,and promoting the coordinated development of railway transport,the economy and the society.In light of these,based on the supply-demand suitability,we study the quantitative calculation method for determining the stabilization scale of railway network in this paper,which has great theoretical value and practical significance in determining the target scale of railway network,adapting to the growth of economic and social development,avoiding the waste of resources in the course of railway development and so on.The paper has carried out both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the relationship between railway network and economy and society,and analysis shows that adapting to economic development,the railway network has its stabilization scale.The paper analyses the goal programming-based calculation method for the stabilization scale of railway network,corresponding stabilization trend and growth path;the production function-based calculation method for the stabilization model of national railway network;and evaluation methods for new railway projects.Main research work and innovation points include the following:(1)Based on the co-integration theory,the steady state relationships between railway and several factors are studied.Taking railway transport demand as the object,and passenger and freight volumes,passenger and freight turnover volumes the indexes,the paper constructs the relationships between railway transport and regional GDP and regional industrial structure respectively,and analyses the internal mechanism of railway and industrial structure and the optimization effect on industrial structure.Also,taking the productions of the three main industries as the indexes,the paper analyses the relationship between them and railway transport indexes,and analyses the marginal benefit.Through the error correction model,we get the long-term and short-term effects between railway transport indexes and GDP,industrial structure,and get Granger causalities at 5%and 10%significance levels respectively through Granger causality test.(2)The calculation method for the stabilization scale of railway network based on supply-demand matching and adaptation is studied.Synthetically using analogy,demand analysis,network analysis and other methods,considering the demand of economic and social development for railway transport,the paper constructs the basic goal programming models for calculating the stabilization scale of railway network,that is,the goal programming models based on railway network density and based on railway network mileage.Considering matching the demand,we introduce transport capacity as the intermediate index to link and measure transport supply and demand,and establish the two-phased goal programming model based on the basic models.The model also considers:1)the impersonal demand arising from economic aggregate,total population and the productions of the three main industries;2)the proportion of railway transport volume to the whole social transport volume;3)the input-output relationship of railway scale and transport volume;4)the relationship between railway scale and territory coefficient,road network connectivity,and so on,making the adaptation of railway network scale and transport supply,of supply and demand,of railway transport and social and economic development to be more clearly quantified.The selection of goal programming models and setting of variables help clarify the road network scales of different levels and corresponding transport volumes they undertake.The model constructed could provide technical support of quantitative analysis for railway network planning and the determination of road network scales of different levels.(3)The regularity of road network growth path based on railway network stabilization is studied.Focusing on stabilization,the paper proposes a planning method for railway network growth path based on the basic idea of discrete mathematics.We divide the stabilization phase into equal intervals,calculate the averages of each interval,use the growth ratios of averages to approximately represent those of intervals,then compare them with the growth ratio of target stabilization scale to initial status,and study the rule of railway network growth path through ratio expansion.Also,model parameters,algorithm steps and processes are constructed,and an example has been used to test the validity.(4)The calculation method for the stabilization scale of national railway network based on supply-demand matching is studied.In light of railway network at national level,the paper analyses the existence of stabilization scale according to the railxway development history of major developed countries.We analyze the development trend and adaptation of railway transport supply and demand in China,select factors that impact supply and demand,and use grey correlation analysis to assess and choose transport demand indexes.Based on the input-output theory and basic Cobb-Douglas production function,the stabilization model for railway transport supply-demand matching is constructed.As f-or the measurement of railway transport demand and index selection,considering the actual situation of China,we select 9 factors after evaluating four main categories,which are national economic level,industrial structure,population distribution and people's living standards,establish the production function model,and add factors that are in accordance with the basic situation of China to improve the stability of calculation results.Factors that are not easy to be quantified,such as nations5 geographic locations,railway development history,and railway construction policy preferences,are converted into railway dependence-preference coefficients in weight form,and are used to modify the scale value calculated from the stabilization model.The stabilization model and dependence-preference modified approach could provide reference for quantitative analysis of national railway network stabilization scale.(5)The evaluation methods for railway construction projects are studied.The railway project is evaluated by the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.Qualitative analysis is made from the perspectives of national planning,regional conditions and transportation demand.The cointegration theory is applied to quantitatively analyze the relationship between economy and railway transportation demand,which indicates the necessity and strategic significance of project construction.The study on calculating the stabilization scale of railway network in this paper starts from the link between railway transportation and economy,society and the matching of supply and demand,which can make clear the development goal of railway network.Meanwhile,whether in the input-output of railway transport production,or in the development trend and path of railway network growth,selection of planning schemes,improving the railway network layout and hierarchical distribution,and guide the balance development of transport capacity allocation and supply-demand,the method system constructed in this paper for measuring road network scale has important theoretical value and significance. |
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