Research On Potential Forecasting And Optimization Management Of Electric Energy Substitution In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is another economic growth pole for China after the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta.As energy consumption enters the growth rate shift period,the three regions are faced with the common needs of optimizing energy structure,improving air quality,strengthening facility capacity building and improving energy supply security.In this regard,the three governments attach great importance to energy development issues,actively develop clean energy,and use electrical energy as the main way to replace clean energy.In recent years,the electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has developed rapidly,especially in the field of residential heating,and the technology has been gradually used.With the continuous promotion of electric energy substitution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,it is of great theoretical and guiding significance to predict the future development trend of electric energy substitution and further integrate and optimize the technical schemes.In view of this,this paper carried out an analysis of the electric energy substitution potential and optimization management research in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.The main research results and innovations are as follows:(1)Conduct research on the relationship between energy consumption,economic development and environmental pollution in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.Based on the grey correlation model,the relationship between energy consumption,economic development and environmental pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is analyzed.The results show that energy consumption canl promote the development of regional economy to a large extent.The most important contribution is electric power consumption.The large consumption of energy will increase environmental pollution,especially the negative impact of coal consumption on the environment.Therefore,it is necessary to widely apply energy substitution technologies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to alleviate the current severe energy consumption situation and environmental pollution.(2)Conduct forecasting research on the future potential of electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The factors of economic development,environmental constraints,energy prices,policy support and technological progress are selected as the main factors affecting the development of electric energy substitution and quantified.A forecasting model of electric energy substitution potential based on improved BPNN-SVM-KELM is established.The electric energy substitution factors are taken as the input variable,and the electricity is used as the output variable.The MEC-BPNN model,the BA-SVM model and the KELM model are used for training and forecasting,and the respective forecasting results are combined by the VC weight dynamic allocation method,and the final forecasting results is obtained.The historical data of the the proposed region are used to verify the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model.Based on the trend extrapolation method,the input variable value of electric energy substitution potential is set,and the electric energy substitution potential of the proposed region is predicted in 2018-2025.The results show that the future energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has maintained a relatively fast development rate and there is a large space for electric energy substitution potential mining and operation optimization in the field of residential heating and transportation.(3)Conduct research on optimization model of the electric energy substitution project in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.In the field of "Replace coal with electric energy",the operation of integrated heating project of regenerative electric boiler and ground source heat pump is optimized.A heat load forecasting model based on NARX neural network is constructed.The outdoor temperature,historical load and solar irradiance are selected as input variables to predict the heat load in the future period,in order to provide data support for the optimal operation of the integrated heating project.The operation optimization model of integrated heating project based on chaotic-cat swarm algorithm is constructed.The minimum operating cost of integrated heating system is selected as the objective function.The cat swarm algorithm is used to optimize and the chaotic search strategy is added to improve the speed and accuracy.A certain area of Tianjin City is selected for case analysis.The results show that the optimized operation scheme can effectively reduce the operating cost of the system,and can play the role of shifting peaks and valleys,providing reference for the deep integration of future regional electric energy substitution technologies.In the field of "Replace oil with electric energy",the electric vehicle charging strategy is optimized.The electric vehicle charging strategy optimization model based on improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is constructed.The minimum charging cost and the minimum grid load variance are selected as the objective function.The multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize and add niche algorithm to improve the speed and accuracy of optimization.The simulation analysis of the optimization of electric vehicle charging strategy in commercial office areas and residential communities with different load characteristics is carried out.The results show that the optimized charging strategy can reduce the charging cost significantly and effectively smooth the grid load curve,which has specific guiding significance for the planning and operation of future regional electric energy substitution technologies.(4)Conduct comprehensive benefits evaluation research on the optimized electric energy substitution operation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The comprehensive operation benefit evaluation index systems of "Replace coal with electric energy" heating project and "Replace oil with electric energy”electric vehicle charging station project are established respectively.Based on the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,a fuzzy evaluation model for comprehensive benefit optimization of electric energy substitution project is constructed.The evaluation results show that the operating efficiency of the integrated heating project is better than that of the independent heating project as a whole,and the optimized integrated heating project can be better coupled because of its operation mode at each stage,so the operating efficiency is optimal and the performance of energy consumption,resources and environmental characteristics and user experience characteristics are outstanding.At the same time,the comprehensive benefit of the optimized charging strategy operation of the electric vehicle charging station is better than the disordered charging operation,and it is outstanding in terms of grid load characteristics and operational capability characteristics,which provides strong support for the future promotion and application of electric energy substitution technology.(5)Conduct research on innovative business models and management policies recommendations for electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Combined with the characteristics of the electric energy substitution projects,the EPC mode,PPP mode,B2B mode and B2C mode of the electric energy substitution field are proposed.Combined with the study results of potential forecasting and optimization of electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the management policy recommendations for electric energy substitution promotion are proposed from four aspects of electricity price,subsidy,environmental protection and planning,in order to provide guidance and assistance for the future commercialization and development of electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.