| China's energy supply and demand are in conflict,and environmental problems are relatively serious.The national energy revolution strategy containing energy technology revolution shows that technological progress has an important impact on energy intensity.Technological progress is caused by qualitative change,which may have periodical characteristics,and the influence of technology on energy intensity is not unconditional,which is regulated by absorption capacity.Study the influence of the technological progress of energy intensity,and the regulation on the effect of absorptive capacity,on the one hand to meet technological progress by the amount of change to the qualitative leap,provide theoretical support for basic research,on the other hand,can cause the attention of construction of absorptive capacity,give full play to the regulatory role of absorptive capacity,more promote technological progress on energy intensity of positive influence.There are many studies on energy intensity by domestic and foreign scholars.Relevant studies show that technological progress is an important factor affecting energy intensity.Most research conclusions support technological progress as an important reason for energy intensity reduction.In addition,a lot of research will absorb ability index classified as technical progress index,directly to analyze its influence on energy intensity,focus on how to adjust the technological progress of absorptive capacity of impact energy intensity of the study is less,the paper will be extracted from absorptive capacity,based on the analysis of technological progress on energy intensity,study how to adjust the technological progress of absorptive capacity's impact on energy intensity.Main research contents are as follows:Firstly,the current situation and problems of energy intensity and technological progress in China are analyzed.Since 2005,China's energy intensity has been decreasing year by year,but the international comparison of energy intensity shows that China's energy intensity is still high.The contribution rate of scientific and technological progress,research and development expenditure,and contract amount of technology market in China have gradually increased.The gap between China and the United States in terms of technology level has been narrowing.However,overall,China's technology level is still lower than that of the United States.In addition,the application and authorization of patents in eastern China far exceeds that in the central and western regions,reflecting the imbalance of development in the eastern and western regions in China's technological progress.Secondly,the introduction of the revised Bass innovation diffusion model of technology innovation diffusion process is derived,including access to information,correct subjective judgment,information filtering,steps,such as risk assessment and cost estimates based on the analysis of the technological progress affect the mechanism of energy intensity,and according to the measure of absorptive capacity,analysis the mechanism of absorption capacity regulation,proposed thesis research hypothesis: one is technological progress on energy intensity of the existence of periodic nonlinear effect,2 it is able to adjust to the impact of absorptive capacity.Finally,based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2002 to 2016,the impact of technological progress on energy intensity and the adjustment effect of absorptive capacity on this impact is demonstrated.One is to use mixed regression model,the random effects model,the fixed effects model and bidirectional fixed effects model,proves the technology can significantly reduce energy intensity,the second is the Hansen's panel threshold model,the empirical phase nonlinear effects of technological progress on energy intensity three is to use adjustment effect model,the analysis of the influence of absorptive capacity for this kind of adjustment.In order to avoid the accidental emergence of empirical conclusions due to the use of specific data,this paper respectively USES the internal expenditure of R&D funds and the technical market transaction amount as the agent variables of technological progress,and draws relatively stable research conclusions after repeated regression.The main research conclusions are as follows:On the impact of technological progress on energy intensity.First,the impact of technological progress on energy intensity is non-linear and has a threshold effect.On the whole,technological progress can significantly reduce energy intensity.The threshold value is when R&D expenditure of the agent variable of technological progress is 1.697 billion yuan,and after the threshold value,the impact of technological progress on energy intensity becomes smaller.Specifically,for every 1% increase in r&d spending before crossing the threshold,energy intensity decreased by about 0.51%,while after crossing the threshold,the impact decreased to 0.475%.Secondly,the industrial structure upgrading is based on technological progress,and the influence of industrial structure on energy intensity also has the threshold effect with technological progress as the threshold variable.Since 2002,industrial structure upgrading has been conducive to reducing energy intensity,and after the threshold value,the impact of industrial structure upgrading on energy intensity has become larger.Specifically,before crossing the threshold value,the industrial structure upgrade index increased by 1% and energy intensity decreased by 0.8%.When crossing the threshold value,the effect became 0.9%.Thirdly,as of 2016,the provinces that have not crossed the threshold value are hainan province and qinghai province,and the provinces(districts)that crossed the threshold value between 2002 and 2016 and their years are Inner Mongolia(2003),xinjiang(2003),guizhou(2004)and ningxia(2012).The provinces that have crossed the threshold value since 2002 and those that have not crossed the threshold value by 2016 are the central and western provinces(districts).Whether or not they have crossed the threshold value and the time sequence of crossing the threshold value reflects the difference in economic development level and time accumulation of technological progress between the eastern and central western provinces.On absorptive capacity regulation.First,absorptive capacity can adjust the impact of technological progress on energy intensity.To be specific,the degree of opening to the outside world energy intensity effect on technological progress adjustment exist threshold characteristics,namely the influence of technological progress on energy intensity exists in the threshold of the degree of opening to the outside world as threshold variable characteristics,specific threshold value of import and export trade volume of $1.618 billion,in the import and export trade volume before crossing the threshold value,the influence of technological progress on energy intensity is 0.367,after crossing the threshold value,technical progress effect on energy intensity is reduced to 0.309.Second,the level of human capital,the degree of market-oriented and the degree of openness to the outside world are different.To be specific,whether r&d expenditure or technical market transaction amount is used as the agent variable of technological progress,the adjustment effect of human capital level and the degree of opening to the outside world in absorptive capacity is greater than that of market-oriented.The adjustment effect of the former two is around-0.04,while that of the latter is between-0.026 and-0.031.Thirdly,as one of the constituent elements of absorptive capacity,the adjustment effect of opening to the outside world has significant regional differences.Specifically,the adjustment effect of the degree of opening-up on the influence of technological progress on energy intensity was the largest in the western region(-0.123),followed by the central region(-0.096),and the eastern region(-0.015).Since the impact of technology on energy intensity is relatively weak after crossing the technical threshold,local governments can focus on promoting technological progress and cultivating absorptive capacity according to whether local technical indicators cross the threshold when the total input volume is certain.The provinces that have not crossed the technical threshold should pay more attention to the improvement of technological progress and give play to their basic role in reducing energy intensity while cultivating absorption capacity.Provinces that have crossed the technical threshold should pay more attention to the cultivation of absorptive capacity while promoting technological progress,give full play to the regulating role of absorptive capacity,and promote technologies to reduce energy intensity more effectively.In addition,the cultivation of absorptive capacity should also be adapted to local conditions to improve the absorptive capacity indicators with relatively strong adjustment effect in the region. |
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