Study On Risk Factors And Early Warning Of The Regional Special Equipment Safety Based On The Perspective Of Supervision

Special equipment has been playing an important role in social and economic development.It is an important infrastructure both for people's livelihood and economic construction.Special equipment is closely related to people's production and life,whereas it is risky,which concerning people's life and property safety.Therefore,special equipment safety is listed as one of the national public security.Thus,ensuring the quality of special equipment and safe operation,preventing accidents and reducing accidents are of great significance to protect people's life and property safety,promote the steady development of social economy.In recent years,the government and scholars studied the special equipment safety risk in different angles and has made certain research results.But most researches are studied in the perspective of production,users and regulators,focusing on influence of risk factors on special equipment safety,production and users in micro level,few researches studying regional special equipment safety risk in macro level in a supervision perspective.Therefore,studying on regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective based on the advanced risk management and safety regulation theory has strong theoretical and realistic meaning,which are of great necessity for government regulators.Starting from the supervision perspective and aiming at the existing problems of special equipment safety and supervision,this paper explores the regional special equipment safety risk factors and mechanism,constructs its model,analyzes its structural relationship,designs regional safety risk early warning model,calculating warning levels of regional special equipment safety risk in supervision perspective in case of China's 31 provincial administrative regions,in order to guide the direction,strategies and measures of regional special equipment safety supervision,which can provide scientific basis for formulation of special equipment safety strategic planning objectives and reform of supervision system,improve supervision and utility level,so as to reasonably control China's regional special equipment safety risk and prevent accidents in multiple links.Through in-depth study,following chapters are mainly completed as follows:Chapter 1,introduction.Firstly,this chapter introduces the topic source and research background.Secondly,this chapter reviews the current research status in and abroad from aspects of special equipment safety supervision,special equipment safety risk study,and risk early warning,and puts forward the purposes and significance of the study.Finally,the research content,research method and technical route are determined.Chapter 2,theoretical basis and theoretical research framework.Firstly,this chapter analyzes the related theories of regional special equipment safety risk early warning in supervision perspective from aspects of safety regulation theory,regional science and system science theory,risk and risk management theory.Secondly,this chapter puts forward and preliminarily defines the regional special equipment safety risk in supervision perspective and constructs the risk concept model.Finally,this chapter analyzes the formation of safety risk early warning system and designs the safety risk early warning framework,which lays the foundation for the follow-up study.Chapter 3,study on safety risk factors and mechanism of regional special equipment based on the Grounded Theory.Using qualitative research method of the Grounded Theory,this chapter makes an explorative study on safety risk factors and mechanism of regional special equipment in the supervision perspective based on the materials of expert interview data,special equipment safety accident case and related laws and regulations.Finally,we extracts five main categories of macro environment,systems and institutions,supervision status,industry status and accident influence,14 categories and 51 related concepts,and build the factor and mechanism model of regional special equipment safety risk based on these extractions.Besides,we optimize the definition of regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective,specify that the macro environment is the objective element affecting special equipment safety and that systems and institutions,supervision status,industry status and accident influence are system elements affecting special equipment safety.Among them,systems and institutions affect supervision status and industry status,supervision status affects industry status and accident influence,industry status directly causes accidents and makes an influence.Chapter 4,analysis on structure relationships of regional special equipment safety risk based on the PLS-SEM method.Based on the results of Grounded Theory,this chapter builds the structure relationship model of regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective,constructs the structure relationship assumptions among systems and institutions,supervision status,industry status and accident influence,designs the questionnaire and measurement scale,analyze the risk structure relationship by using PLS-SEM model,validate and fix the relationship assumptions.This chapter specifies the logical relationship among risk factors,verifies the safety risk factors and mechanism of regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective,which lays foundation for building safety risk early warning index system and calculating indexes' weight.Chapter 5,the establishment of regional special equipment safety risk warning model based on SEM-ANP-CM method.Based on the safety risk connotation and index system of regional special equipment in the supervision perspective and the analysis result of the Grounded Theory,we build a risk early-warning index system including 12 qualitative indexes and 25 quantitative indexes according to the hierarchical division of core category,main category,category and conception combined with expert opinions.Then,based on the structure relationship result of PLS-SEM method,we design an index weight calculation method based on ANP.Using the normal curve method,we determine the single index interval on the basis of expert opinions and the distribution characteristics of sample data.Using the combination method of Cloud model and expert evaluation,we calculate the membership degree of quantitative and qualitative index respectively.According to the index weight and membership grade,we calculate the safety risk early warning level,in order to complete the construction of early warning model.Chapter 6,safety risk early warning level calculation of regional special equipment in the supervision perspective.Use the year of 2015 as an example,we calculate the safety risk level of regional special equipment and all dimensions in 31 provincial administrative regions in China by using the safety risk early warning model.The ranks of 31 provinces from good to bad are: Beijing,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Fujian,Zhejiang,Sichuan,Hebei,Shandong,Chongqing,Tianjin,Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Anhui,Ningxia,Shanxi,Shan'xi,Hubei,Jilin,Guizhou,Liaoning,Gansu,Shanghai,Henan,Hainan,Hunan,Xinjiang,Qinghai,Jiangxi,Guangxi,Yunnan,Xizang.Besides,we draw a map of risk level distribution of different provinces in China and analyze the calculation result from aspects of regional safety risk early warning level,each dimension safety risk level,a single zone comprehensive measurement results.Chapter 7,coping strategy of regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective.According to the analysis of safety risk factors and mechanism combined with the risk early warning model and empirical result,we put forward coping strategies from the national level and provincial level respectively.On the national level,we put forward comprehensive countermeasures by using the central government and the special equipment safety supervision bureau as the main body,design coping strategies for provincial administrative regions under different risk early warning levels.On the provincial level,we put forward comprehensive countermeasures by using the provincial special equipment safety supervision bureau as the main body.Taking the year of 2015 as an example,we point out the risk indicators that need to be preferentially improved and controlled and put forward countermeasures for each risk index.Chapter 8,conclusions and prospects.Firstly,we summarize the research results according to the above contents and conclusions.Secondly,we summarize the whole study and list the innovations.Finally,we put forward the existing problems and future research direction.Main innovations of this study are as follows:(1)This paper puts forward the conception of regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective and defines it scientifically.On this basis,this paper analyzes the factors and mechanism of regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective,builds the safety risk factor and mechanism model with the core of macro environment,systems and institutions,supervision status,industry status and accident influence.(2)This paper builds the structure relationship model of regional special equipment safety risk in the supervision perspective,constructs assumptions among systems and institutions,supervision status,industry status and accident influence.Using PLS-SEM for confirmatory analysis,this paper further defines the structure relationship between risk factors and verifies the risk factors and mechanism,which lay a foundation for subsequent risk early warning model construction;(3)This paper builds the safety risk warning index system of regional special equipment in the supervision perspective,uses the ANP method to determine indexes' weight combining with risk structure relationship analysis results of PLS-SEM method,determines the single index interval by using the normal curve method combining with expert opinions and distribution characteristics of sample data,and builds risk early warning model by using Cloud Model.(4)This paper collects data of 31 provincial administrative regions and calculates safety risk levels by using the year of 2015 as an example.It also draws a map of risk level distributions of different provinces in China and analyzes the calculation result from aspects of regional special equipment safety risk early warning level,each dimension safety risk level,a single zone comprehensive measurement results.Besides,this paper puts forward coping strategies from the national level and provincial level respectively,which provides references for all levels of special equipment safety regulators in understanding risk status of different provinces and provides basis for decision making.