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Group Decision-making Mechanism In Unconventional Emergency Response

Posted on:2013-02-10Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116330374471217Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The frequency and size of emergencies are constantly improving and expanding, which gradually evolved into giant disasters, i.e. unconventional emergencies. Since the SARS broke out in2003, several unconventional emergencies have happened, such as the Southern snowstorm in2008, the Wenchuan earthquake, Dalian oil pipeline bombings etc. Unconventional emergency seriously threat to life and property safety, social and public security, and even the country's economic development and political stability. Therefore, the research on unconventional emergency response management cannot be ignored.The emergency decision-making is one of the most important research areas in emergency management. Based on the characteristics of unconventional emergency, the unconventional emergency decision-making process could be very complicated, which includes dynamic decision-making process of multi-decision objectives, collaborative decision-making process of multi-decision subjects, and decision-making mechanism based on rapid response. Therefore, the research on decision-making mechanism of unconventional emergency, especially on group decision-making mechanism in complicated environment has contribution to capability improvement of complex disaster response, accuracy of determination, efficiency of emergency response, and reduction of harmfulness in big crisis and disasters. The research has its theoretical and practical significance.The purpose of the dissertation is to analyze the group decision-making mechanism of unconventional emergency. Based on the multi-disciplinary field of theory and methods, the dissertation proposes three principles of unconventional emergency response, which are agile group decision-making, group decision-making inquire-discuss-determine, and group decision-making psychological stress. The dissertation also focuses on information integration and scenario response in group decision-making of unconventional emergency. The main contents of the dissertation are listed as follows.First, based on the discussion of the definition, characteristics and elements, the explanatory note of unconventional emergency is proposed. The definition of group decision making of unconventional emergency is made based on the discussion of characteristics and mode. Second, the principle of agile group decision-making of unconventional emergency is proposed based on the agile decision-making theory. The principle of group decision-making inquire-discuss-determine of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the theory and application of complex systems and human-computer interaction system, etc. The principle of group decision-making psychological stress of unconventional emergency is introduced based on limited rational decision-making theory and decision theory of mind. The above three principles and the related models provide a theoretical basis for the whole research of the dissertation.Third, based on the analysis of definition, characteristics and behavior rule, the dissertation discusses the intrinsic relationship between the information flow and emergency decision making in unconventional emergency. The information control model of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the system dynamics theory. The decision information integration model of unconventional emergency group decision making is established based on the game theory.Fourth, the group decision making scenario response mechanism of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the analysis of intrinsic characteristics and rule of unconventional emergency scenario evolution. The scenario response group decision making model of unconventional emergency is built based on the Dynamic Bayesian Networks and the theory of scenario analysis. In addition, the dissertation analyzes the agile learning behavior in group decision making process of unconventional emergence based on the fuzzy theory, and establishes agile group decision making integration model of unconventional emergency.Fifth, the dissertation takes "7.23" Yong-temperature line particularly major rail accident as a typical case. The dissertation analyzes the emergency response process of the case, information integration in the emergency decision making and decision making process among the four responsible departments as well. In addition, some comments and suggestions are made based on the information control model and scenario response group decision making model of unconventional emergency.
Keywords/Search Tags:Unconventional emergency, Group decision-making, Agiledecision-making, Scenario response, Decision-making information
PDF Full Text Request
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